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Woodbine Harness: Monday 2/4 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (8 - 18 / $28.80): FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR (8th) Spot Play: ROCK THE WIND (4th)
(2) GARETH NOURRIR returns to the claiming ranks after a fifth place finish at a much higher level. He won his previous two starts against easier competition and he's facing just that in here. (7) DANIEL SEMALU races at his best when he's near or on the front-end. This is a short field and Waples will likely use the same tactic as he did last week. (6) TWIN B WRANGLER is fresh off a claim and new trainer Puddy has started 2013 off with good numbers. He shows enough speed to belong in here and it will be interesting to see what value he offers.
(1) GROOM HANOVER made a miscue last week and that's very uncharacteristic of him. He begins from the same post as last week and has been racing at a much higher class. He did win at this level back on December 15. (4) ILLUSIONSNDREAMS does move up in class, but this field isn't much deeper than he's faced in the past. He draws well, enjoys leaving the gate and comes from a top barn. He might even offer a price in here. (8) CHUCKALO CADEN is very capable of finishing in the top three at this level. He's been very consistent in his last number of starts and that will likely continue in here.
(6) TALBOTCREEK ARMANI put forth a solid effort in his return off a layoff. He finished his mile with a good final quarter and can only improve off that performance this start. I'd expect to see him closer to the front this week. (8) SHARK FANTASY is a horse that I have given up on to win. I've put him as my top selection many times and he's gotten terrific trips and failed to find the winner's circle. He's a 'must have' on the exactor, but I'm starting to doubt his talent to win. (3) NO SHIRT NO SHOES moves onto this circuit for the first time in his career and sports a good record so far. He draws inside and shows enough speed over Flamboro to be competitive in this maiden class.
(5) ROCK THE WIND should provide a good return and I'm taking a chance on him as my spot play of the night. He finally draws a decent post and if Mayotte puts him into good position early in the mile, I think he's got a shot to win. (1) FIRE ON THE WATER came from off-the-pace last start to finish second and draws inside once again. He put in a good effort last week considering he hasn't been racing at this best and I'm looking for that to continue. (7) CLASSIC CALL drew post 10 last week, so I'm going to overlook that. He's capable of being top three, but I think he'll need the right trip.
(3) MEADOWVIEW ARTY made a break last start and that's not like him. He's back at the same class, draws inside and has proven to be a threat in recent weeks. (5) FIRST AQUA got a terrific trip last week to finish second and remains at this same level. He provided a price last start and likely will again. (6) P L DALEY drops in class and is certainly capable. He shows enough speed and has raced at a much higher level just four starts ago.
(4) POP COP looked like a one-dimensional horse until last start. It appeared that he was only at his best when he was on or near the front-end, but he closed very well last week to finish second. He finished with a lot of pace and draws much better in the same class. (6) BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE moves up in class after a win last start. He did all the work on the front en route to victory and he showed enough speed last week to be a contender in here. (8) ER ROOM did all the work last week before tiring in deep stretch. He draws outside this week and I'd imagine the front-end tactics will be used again. I'm just not sure he can go the distance.
(8) ORILLIA JOE came from well off-the-pace last start to capture the victory with a :28 final frame. He remains at the same class and has only been defeated once in four career starts. (1) GROWLY GUS draws an inside post and could be a threat. (9) ASLAN was the post time favourite last week and failed to capture the win. He usually raced from behind and with the right trip, I think he can be a player. I hope he doesn't get away too far back.
(4) FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR found the winner's circle in just her second start back after a layoff. She's a two-time O'Brien Award winner who's made a million and has beat the boys at this Preferred level many times in the past. (7) DEFINE THE WORLD also has a ton of back-class and has been at this best in recent weeks. There isn't a horse in this field that can beat him off the gate, so I'd expect to see him on the front in the early going. (1) ZEUS LIGHTNING has finished in the top three in four of his last five starts. He's fresh off a win at this level and is a major threat.
(7) SHIPPS XPLOSION hasn't missed the top three in his last three starts and finished second in a conditioned class on this circuit in his most recent. This class should suit him and I'd imagine he'd offer little value. (2) R ES ART moves to this circuit and this is not a deep field. He comes from a top percentage conditioner, draws inside and enjoys being put into the race. (6) GUTSY GREG drops in class and this should suit him much better. He has enough speed to be competitive and looks like he races at his best from behind.
(1) P L FIGHTER came first-over last week and had to settle for second. He draws inside once again and with a cleaner trip, he's worth a look. (9) FLYING INSTRUCTOR enjoys racing from off-the-pace, so post nine doesn't really bother me. He comes out of a top barn and has proven to be very competitive in this class. (7) MACHAL JORDAN drops in class and he should benefit from that. He'll need an off-the-pace trip to be a factor and that likely will happen from post seven.
(9) ELITE is fresh off a claim and won at this level just two starts ago. He races at his best when he's on the front and those tactics will likely be tried. (6) MY FELLA cannot be left out of any exactor or triactor while racing at this level. He's always a contender with a lot of back-class. Don't overlook his 51 career victories. (1) P L COMMANDER made the jump into this class two starts ago and has been racing fairly well. He was second last week and draws much better in here.