02/02/2015 12:31AM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 2/2 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


1,5,9/1,2,4/2,3,5/6,7 = $54

MEET STATS: 32 - 94 / $184.90  BEST BETS: 3 - 9 / $17.90 

SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 9 / $33.10

Best Bet: BIG PACKAGE (8th)

Spot Play: SOUTHWIND SID (4th)

Race 1

(4) MISTER ICON was taken out of a swift win by trainer Riley in his penultimate race at Rideau and immediately jumped to a class way over his head. He still was only beaten 5 lengths and now drops into a class where he becomes a contender. (2) LITTLE QUICK got a perfect pace set-up for his potent late kick as expected and capitalized. It appears there is far less early speed in here and he will need to get rolling much earlier. (3) GUTSY GREG had a nice win streak snapped at Flamboro when jumped into a Preferred 3. These are more his people; respect.

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Race 2

(7) TYMAL COLLOSSUS kept his rally on hold while a rival cut an insane pace. That one is back in here too and the race shape could play out pretty much the same. (1) LAKEFIELD sat the pocket behind the headstrong leader and paid the price late. He could turn the tables on the choice if the pace is a bit slower early. (5) MEADOWVIEW ARNY cut a wild half for this class then stopped to a walk turning home. He switches barns for this which adds some interest. (5) HOLY MOLIE MAGGIE is always closing late and is a good one to add to the bottom of tri wagers.

Race 3

(4) SPIRIT OF AMERICA moves into the potent Puddy barn for his Woodbine debut. There isn't a lot of improvement required to beat these; top call. (5) TYMAL PRONTO has shown improvement with Drury driving. He can contend here. (3) TERROR OF THE NITE was overtaken by a well-meant winner and paced off his feet in the final 1/4. He is the likely chalk here off that mile but won't offer any value.

Race 4

(5) SOUTHWIND SID's dam has been a pretty good producer of racehorses that are fast early and was a first-out winner herself; call to upset. (1) RANDYS PLAN has missed a week since an eventful trip where he ran early, got back into contention and just when it looked like he could win, ran again. He will get pounded at the windows again but is obviously no lock. (9) BARRYS SHELBY made his first-over move at exactly the wrong time when the leader was putting the pedal to the metal. He can rebound here at a big price; beware.

Race 5

Both (4) LATOKA and (1) SEVERUS HANOVER were conservatively driven last week but expect them both to get much more aggressive steers here in the first leg of The General Brock Series and battle for the win. We'll give the slight edge to the former. (2) OAKLEA WYATT has been a win machine out of town taking 9 of his last 22 but will need to produce more speed here on the big track.

Race 6

(3) PASSIONATE KISSER has improved with McNair in the bike and gets the call to upset here. The likely prohibitive favorite (5) VELOCITY DRIVEN is obviously the fastest horse in the race but has missed 5 weeks racing action and isn't worth a win bet at 1/2 or 2/5 considering. (2) VEGAS RICH drops from the Snowshoe Series where he won a leg and is another that could produce an upset here.

Race 7

(6) CASH FOR GOLD appeared to be driven over-confidently approaching the wire last time which may have cost him the win. He can atone here. (7) BAGS FOR ALL has trotted out of his skin while winning three straight since shipping north. This truly looks like a two-horse race. (4) STONEBRIDGE RICH showed some life late in his mile last week; for a share.

Race 8

(4) BIG PACKAGE has been a big winner twice since joining the Moreau stable. He looks like he has this field over a barrel. (3) JL TIMES R GOOD debuts off the claim for a high % trainer and could threaten. (1) COMPLETE HAND has a bit of a rough trip vs. the choice and could be closer if covered up most of the way.

Race 9

(2) ROCKNROLL BAND got stalled behind bad cover as the race winner was sprinting away but continued to plug on to be a good second. He should get a good trip here. (8) SKY DESPERADO drops back down from 20's to a class where he is competitive; likely blasting and winging it for as far as he goes. (1) HOPETOBEFIRST got a great set-up for his late kick but was outsprinted to the wire by another deep closing specialist He is obviously in the mix, but the string of seconds are troubling.

Race 10

(7) WINNING DREAM takes a big class plunge here and should handle this group. (4) BLISSFUL YEARS exits a heat where several have come back to race well; key race? (5) COBBLE BEACH disappointed as favorite last week and has the ability to make amends if kept closer early. (3) LIVE AND LEARN showed improved late speed last week while closing for a big chunk; in the mix. (10) BROADIES SONG is a good one to hit the bottom of the high-5 ticket at a monster price. Toss him in.

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