02/16/2013 4:23PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 2/18 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (8 - 19 / $28.80): ORILLIA JOE (5th)      

Spot Play: SEA DEUCE (4th)

Race 1

(1) CELEBRITY COWBOY drops in class, draws inside and has an excellent shot to win at this level. He came from well off-the-pace last start to finish third and should be better positioned in here. (3) P L DALEY finished fourth last start, but put in a very good effort. He draws better this week and I'm looking for a better effort. (6) KILTED PRIDE finished third at this level last week and I think he can do it again. Jamieson is back driving and that's the main reason for my selection.

Race 2

(7) EVENING JOB comes out of the Nixon barn and that will drop his value. He was aggressively-driven last start and it will probably happen again. (2) LOST IN PANSLATION will likely be forwardly-placed and he's at a level which he's very competitive at. Don't expect to see much value on him. (1) JUDGE JON moves back to this circuit and he put in a terrific effort at Kawartha Downs in his latest start. After a 1:53 4/5 mile, he deserves a chance in this class.

Race 3

(6) MY FELLA drops in class and that's a major reason for me selecting him. He's the veteran of the field and has found the winner's circle 51 times in his career. (1) SUPERBOWL PARTY drops in class, draws inside and Fellows' barn has been much better in the past few weeks. This horse should provide value and he certainly needs to jump up and I think he's at a level where he can do it. (5) A SUDDEN TWIST comes out the Puddy barn, which has been terrific so far in 2013. He's got a very good record this season and this horse should get some attention with his record this season.

Race 4

(9) SEA DEUCE looks like he's ready to win in his first career start after that very impressive qualifier. He closed very well with a :27 2/5 final quarter to win in a very good time considering the track was off by two seconds. (1) SUNNY BEACH DAY stalled around the final turn last week and was putting in steps and wasn't himself. If trainer Hesspieler has him in top form, he's got a great shot. He'll certainly have to be better than last week. (3) MANCHESTER was used hard to the quarter last week and that reflected in his performance. He tired in deep stretch and failed to earn a cheque. With a cleaner trip, he's a very playable horse for the triactor.

Race 5

(6) ORILLIA JOE has a ton of speed, but isn't the easiest horse to drive. Last week he was pushed very wide at the top of the stretch and that made him work harder than usual. If he gets a clean trip, he has the speed to win. (3) CHEYENNE MOISHE was begging for racing room last week after sitting in the pocket and when he got it, he exploded. He does take on tougher company, but after a terrific performance last week, I think he can handle it. (5) MACHIN MUSIC added lasix his last two starts and that has produced an improvement. He has enough speed to be a part of the triactor, however I think he'll need the right trip.

Race 6

(4) HESGOTLEGS drops out of the Preferred and back into a level he's very competitive at. After finishing fourth in the Preferred, I think he's a very suitable candidate to win at this level. (1) DELCREST JULIAN tends to be inconsistent, but he's had a few weeks off after making a break, which leads me to believe that his issues have been resolved. He adds lasix for the first time and likely won't offer value. (5) GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE is the other Moreau entry and at this level, he's very capable. This class suits him best and he's very versatile.

Race 7

(2) PAPPYS PAL caught me by surprise last week by his effort. He overcame post 10, settled into fourth and then was used again and still had pace at the end of the mile. He draws much better and I feel he has enough speed to win in here. (7) AHDOUGHNOLUM is a horse that I'm not convinced is ready to win in here just yet. He's an obvious horse to consider for the exactor/triactor, but may need a few more starts and better post. (3) ASLAN has been consistent for a number of weeks at this level and won't likely offer much value. He draws well and enjoys being put into the race.

Race 8

(7) TWIN B WRANGLER hasn't been defeated since moving into the Puddy barn and offered a terrific payout after last week's win. I don't feel this class is any deeper than the one last week and I'm sure he won't go off at 13-1 this week. (6) ALWAYS AN OPTOMIST got a terrific steer last week from Filion and just came up short. He's put right back into a class that best suits him and comes from top trainer Moreau. (8) ARPEGGIO HANOVER might be considered as a longshot, but he's got the gate-speed to overcome post 10 and with the right trip, I think he can be top three. He shows fast enough final quarters.

Race 9

(6) DOLCE DUCCI came first over last week, cleared to the front before getting picked off in deep stretch. He returns to the same level and is a top contender once again. (5) DIESEL FUEL debuts for new trainer Lamoureaux and gets the services of Jamieson. He shows enough speed over Famboro's half-mile track and I think he can drop even more time, especially with Jamieson. (3) CON BRIO HALL finished second in this class last week and draws much better. He's been inconsistent so far this season, but is a credible option.

Race 10

(5) ROCK THE WIND has been the runner-up in each of his last two starts at this level. He draws well again and if he's pushed forward off-the-gate, I like his chances to win. He's definitely due. (9) DONAU raced well last week for first-time starter Hughes and was only beaten by less than one length for the win. He has gate-speed to be well positioned and may offer a price. (4) CIONA BROMACH was simply too far back last week with a post 10 start. He draws much better in here and if he races like he did three starts ago, he's got a shot to be a part of the triactor.

Race 11

(6) SHIPPS XPLOSION has a solid record so far this season and this class best suits him. He was used hard last week and with a lighter trip, he's a major threat. (7) DJ LANCE drops in class and that was much-needed. This class is a better fit for him and he shows enough speed to be a contender. (3) P L FASTSTRIKE draws well again and debuts for the Fellows. The claiming angle is the major reason for my selection.

 

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