02/15/2015 11:00PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 2/16 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


3 / 1,6 / 1,7,10 / 2,6,8,10 = $24

MEET STATS: 64 - 166 / $364.40  BEST BETS: 9 - 16 / $38.10 

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 15 / $54.20

Best Bet: TOUCH THE SKY (4th)

Spot Play: BROADIES SONG (2nd)

Race 1

(3) MISTER ICON fired out and put up some big fractions early, yielded, then came on again for third in the lane. He should get a much easier trip up front here and will be tough to chase down. (6) PL GYRO tipped his hand with a much improved effort in his penultimate start then converted with a nice win last week. He is the one the choice will need to fend off late. (8) LITTLE QUICK moves to a high % barn off the claim but has his work cut out starting from an outer post which pretty much guarantees he will be near the back at the outset.

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Race 2

(8) BROADIES SONG shot the works at the start last time but couldn't keep pace with a razor-sharp Sparky Mark late. He is fit and ready to win now and just needs a decent trip. (4) GOLDSTAR BADLANDS moved to the front early in the mile as expected last Monday then just failed to last. He could do here with a less stressful trip early. (1) JAC SPADE had trouble getting motivated until very late in the mile which allowed a revved-up rival to roll by. He fits here but is a tough one to drive.

Race 3

(10) TYMAL COLLOSSUS has hit his best form for Moreau and can lead or stalk and get the job done. He will be tough to beat again here. (9) BIG PACKAGE drops back to the class he was winning at before the claim. The 10-hole may not be much of a hindrance to him if he is motivated early by Waples. (1) LAKEFIELD is good for a share but hasn't shown enough late speed to be considered for the win.

Race 4

(3) TOUCH THE SKY ships in from Chicago and seems to have this field over a barrel on form and only meets the NW money eligibility due to the small purses at Balmoral. This one is the BEST BET of the night. (2) GIOVANNI raced big from the 10-hole last week against a heavily-bet winner and might be the only danger to the choice. (6) THINK AGAIN also closed well in the same dash and looks good for a slice.

Race 5

We have had our eye on (6) CASH FOR GOLD all winter and it seems apparent that this final of the General Brock Series was his ultimate goal all along. He showed what he could do last week if given the green light early in the mile by his driver. We expect a lifetime-best performance tonight. (1) BOURBON BAY is likely to be heavily-favored off two impressive wins in the preliminary legs. He is obviously the one to beat. (3) BAGS FOR ALL hasn't missed the exacta since shipping north, but the top two are mighty tough customers for him. He should get a share, but is unlikely for the win.

Race 6

(10) COWBOY CODY made two moves into some big fractions and still held well for 2nd. He deserves top call here off the claim, even from post 10. (7) UNIQUE BARAN drops back to the class he was winning in when claimed. Expect dramatic improvement from this one who is properly spotted here. (1) LOST IN PANSLATION met more early opposition than anticipated last week and it took its toll late. He merits respect from the rail off the claim.

Race 7

(8) IDEAL SHADOW left for a good spot and was coming fast late. He is one of the sharpest in here but needs a good steer from an ice-cold driver which is difficult to predict. (10) BAD FOX, who went a monster first-up trip first off the claim, was in to go last Thursday when the races were cancelled due to extreme cold. He will be a factor here even from the 10-hole. (6) VELOCITY DRIVEN made a big move (26 3/5) in the 3rd 1/4 last week which took its toll in the stretch. He can be a lot closer if rated better.

Race 8

(5) SAMIRA HANOVER isn't the most reliable mare on the grounds but she has faced much better most of the winter and has a big chance here if she stays flat. (4) ALEXANDRA LUKAS couldn't keep pace with a sharp winner last time out but looks like one of the better ones in here. McNair will have this one on the move early. (2) BROADWAY PRINCE was only a length back of the one above after going a longer journey. He should get a better trip here and should be a lot closer at the wire.

Race 9

(6) FUTURE MILLION has had two long trips at Flamboro since being claimed three back. These don't look much tougher and he could get a much better trip here at a good price; upset special. (9) ARI ALLSTAR left, yielded then moved first up and was right there until late. He can get a good piece of this. (2) SAVANNAH SPLENDOR continues to close belatedly after the winner has been decided. Expect more of the same here.

Race 10

(9) AMERICAN ROCK had the field at his mercy last week and the only question was when McNair was going to pull the trigger. The step up isn't that tough for this nice-looking Rocknroll Hanover colt. Call to repeat. (1) HARBOR PLACE was second best to a well-meant winner but may suffer the same fate here. (7) D GS JUSTLIKETHAT closed well to get third in the same dash and is good for a piece of this, too. (6) BAD AS CREEK had a tough first-over go but should get a better trip here and possibly a better placing than this. (8) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE stayed in but had good late pace and can make the Hi-5 ticket here.

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