01/01/2016 3:40PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 1/4 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,5,6/3,4,6/2,3,4/6,7/3,9,10 = $32.40

EARLY PICK 4: 6,7/3,4,9,10/2,8/2,9 = $32

LATE PICK 4: 4/1,4,7,8/5,6,7/1,3,4 = $36

MEET STATS: 173 - 519 / $944.50  BEST BETS: 26 - 47 / $91.80

SPOT PLAYS: 15 - 47 / $167.60

Best Bet: MARQUIS VOLO (8th)

Spot Play: ONE WARRAWEE (2nd)

Race 1

(2) TOY IS OURS has been carefully handled by Vanderkemp in his last two starts both of which were wins. He should be good for another if he continues to mind his manners. (5) HILLSONATOR closed quickly in his qualifier and has shown enough speed last summer to contend here right away. (6) HALO EFFECT was a sharp winner on a slow track last time but has now missed three weeks; another to consider for Pick 5 tickets.

Race 2

(6) ONE WARRAWEE raced great two back here then couldn't get over a track covered in snow last Monday in London. That low placing should add value to his price here; top call. (3) INTENDED STYLE is logical here dropping in for a tag but is likely to be overbet, too. (4) WOGGY ROCKS stormed off cover down the lane to score a big upset last time out and is a threat to repeat in his current sharp form.

Race 3

(3) WINE PHOTO raced well in a tougher class from a worse post last time. McNair will be sending; catch him to greet the cashier. (9) BROADWAY PRINCE drops in for a tag and has beaten better as recently as six weeks ago; the main danger. (2) UTOPIA made a strong late move to win his last start and isn't out of this but the top two may be too tough.

Race 4

(7) HOME JAMES left hard from the worst post, took a shuffle then had pace late in his Woodbine debut and will likely try to take these coast-to-coast. (6) HIGHLAND SIMONSAYS qualified sharply over a sloppy track preparing for this start and looms a danger. (5) NEW STANDARD is by a sire who produces many that win early and out of a dam that has produced several winners; consider.

Race 5

(3) PUREFORM OLYMPIA drops in for a tag here and should be prominent on or near the lead. (10) GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE goes for a tag, too, and adds Lasix. Don't be shocked if A Mac sends this gelding hard off the gate. (9) JOSEPH GERARD is another speed type in with a shot. Early positioning will be critical here.

Race 6

(2) ALWAYS THERE raced huge for a tag two back, making several moves into a strong pace. Back in for claiming and starting from a good post with the top driver gives him every chance to take these. (8) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT won three of his last five starts to end 2015 after going 1 for his first 32; respect. (3) FIRST IMPRESSION can threaten if he can avoid the tough trip he had last time.

Race 7

As previously noted, (9) FEARLESS MAN can peel off several wins in a row when he is at his sharpest; ride him until they beat him. (2) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS wasn't far behind the choice last time. He looks next best. (8) BURNIN MONEY will be passing most of these late for a minor share.

Race 8

(4) MARQUIS VOLO raced well last time but couldn't get near a very strong winner. There are none that compare to that rival in here; top call. (9) NEILS GOLDEN GIRL has been racing well in the top classes at Flamboro and is in with a shot here, even from the outer post. (2) MEADOW SEELSTER had a productive 2015 campaign and was 2nd last time to the same one that beat the choice but in a different race. Jamieson returns and quite often moves horses up the 2nd time he drives them.

Race 9

(4) LETS WAIT AND SEE raced well last time but couldn't hold off a pylon skimmer late. He could show further improvement for connections that can keep them good for several starts once they show improvement. (8) HIT AND GIGGLE A drops and adds Filion and Lasix. He should show a lot more here. (1) CHICAGO HANOVER rode poor cover last time when the pace picked up which led to a poor result. He's a contender here.

Race 10

(6) COVERT OPERATIVE has been finishing well and should get a good setup here with several speed types signed on; slight nod in a competitive dash. (5) ETRUSCAN HANOVER is very good when he minds his manners and will likely take these all the way if he stays flat, but that is always in question with him it seems. (7) TOTALLY RIPPED has been closing with good energy late and is a threat at a square price here.

Race 11

(4) THE BIG YEAR qualified faster than most of these race which makes him an automatic play. (3) A MARCOU STORY drops and should show more here. (1) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE closed strongly last time in a quick mile. He fits here. (6) CHEYENNE FORD was claimed, gets Lasix and picks up McNair. He has an upset chance despite the class rise. (5) DREYDL HANOVER could go better here if the track is dry. Note his win in this class on November 2nd.

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