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Woodbine Harness: Monday 12/31 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet: DELCREST JULIAN (3rd)
Spot Play: DJ LANCE (7th)
(3) MACHS BEACH BOY came first-over last start to finish third. He battled very well in deep stretch which leads me to believe with a cleaner trip this week, he's a top threat. (4) REMORSE CODE was driven aggressively by Moiseyev last week to make the front. He usually provides value and I'm looking to capitalize. (6) INSTANT THRILL was a longshot in the final of the Valedictory final, but that won't happen in this race. Filion is back in the bike and this is a lower class. He's been inconsistent recently, but this class suits him well.
(3) SHARK FANTASY posted a very good mile in his career debut last week. He used a :27 4/5 final quarter to close from seventh-to-fourth. If he's better positioned off the start, he's got a great shot to win. (6) GIDDY UP BINKS continues to improve with each start. He's had seven starts this season and has been much better in his last two efforts. (1) MARADONA made a break last start, but I'm going to overlook it. When he's put into the race, he's usually effective.
(6) DELCREST JULIAN was sitting well off-the-pace at the top of stretch last start before exploding to victory. A short field only benefits his off-the-pace tactics. The horse has been spectacular since arriving in the Moreau barn. (5) WATKINS is the other Moreau entry. He drops out of the Preferred class, which makes him a top candidate in here after a third-place finish last start. (4) BAX FOR LIFE has had a great season with eight wins. She also comes out of the Preferred level and with her gate-speed, she should be a top contender in here.
(2) THE ONLY ONE caught everyone off guard last start with an impressive victory. He draws inside again and with the same tactics used, he should be the one to beat as he remains at the same level. (4) MAGIC CLASS closed very well last start to finish second. When he behaves, he's a strong competitor in here. (8) STRAWBERRY WINE is a horse I'd only use on exactor/triactor wagers. She has a hard time finding the winner's circle, but is always within reach.
(2) ANNUITY is back in the same class where he captured the victory at last week. He provided value, but I doubt that will happen again. He has been inconsistent this season, but has scored five wins from 21 starts. (1) POP COP has certainly been racing well on this circuit in his last four starts. I admire his gate-speed, which only helps on this circuit. (3) DOOWRAW OMELET was very hard driven last start in the Valedictory final. His :54 half took its toll on him. This is a lighter field and he should rebound with a strong performance from top connections.
(8) WORTHY ADVANTAGE comes from the Auciello barn, which has been red-hot lately on this circuit. He won at Georgian in 1:57 4/5 and that type of effort makes him worth a chance in here. (2) PERFECT VACATION has been put into a class where Moreau thinks he will be most competitive. This horse, although hasn't been racing well, draws inside and is classified accordingly. (6) REHAB MOUNTAIN has finished third in both of his two recent starts. He now moves back to this circuit and has a solid record this season.
(6) DJ LANCE has had some time off and now with three starts under his belt, I feel he's ready to win. He finished his mile very strong last week, which only sets him up well in here. (2) SWEET TALKIN SATIN is a horse we don't know much about, but his latest qualifying effort is very encouraging. He's very lightly-raced, but has three wins from four starts. (1) GUTSY GREG used a ground saving trip last week to finish second. Terrific steer by Mayotte and the horse continues to improve.
(7) FANTADDY made a break last week and still paced in 1:52 4/5. He drops in class and comes from the O'Sullivan barn. (2) DRAIN DADDY draws inside and is at a level where he's most competitive. I'm looking for a better performance and also looking for value. (5) OVERCARD finished fourth in this class last week. This isn't a deep field and he's got some back-class to him.
(8) STORMONT LANCELOT debuts for trainer McKinnon, who's very capable. His 1:58 1/5 qualifying effort over Flamboro's half-mile oval is very encouraging. He's a top horse when he behaves himself. (1) BRUCE THE BRAVE draws inside and after his 1:54 2/5 effort in his latest start, he's definitely a top threat in here. (3) CANBEC FRIDOLIN has had a solid 2012 campaign. Although he hasn't been racing at his best recently, he trotted an encouraging mile last start.
(2) SF TERRIFIC KISSER came first-over last week and had to settle for second. With a cleaner trip, he's got a good chance. He remains at the same level. (3) CRACKER STONEY shifts to this circuit and I'm confident he can handle the transition. Coming from the Auciello barn, he's certainly worth a play. (7) ST PETE STAR has won two straight and remains at the same level. He usually raced from off-the-pace, which doesn't bother me in this short field.
(1) TERCO CORAZON captured this event last week and I feel he can do it again. He'll likely be the post time favourite and rightfully so. He draws inside and has been racing very well lately. (8) EXPLODENT was moved up in class last start and proved he could handle the level. Gallucci's barn has been very good as of late and I'd expect another top effort. (3) ATOKA MILLIONAIRE captured this event as well last start. It appears he races best when he's put into the race early.
- 1.Posted 12/08/2013 09:52AM
- 2.Posted 12/07/2013 07:42PM
- 3.Posted 12/08/2013 06:24PM
- 4.Posted 12/05/2013 04:54PM
- 5.Posted 12/07/2013 03:42PM