12/08/2012 5:40PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 12/10 Analysis

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$50,000 GUARANTEED PICK-4 (Races 4-7)

Best Bet: UNDERCOVER STRIKE (10th)   
Spot Play: P J LUCKY (2nd)

Race 1

(7) GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE drew outside last week and closed very well to finish third at this level. He's won seven of 26 starts this season and comes from a terrific barn. (8) WINDSONG INGENIUS scored his biggest payday of his career in his latest outing. He can get off the gate extremely well and his latest time makes him a top contender in here. (5) STRIKING LINDSEY has been top three in five of his last six starts with four third-place finishes. That shouldn't be overlooked.

Race 2

(6) P J LUCKY will be my spot play of the night. The last time he was at this level he went gate-to-wire from post 10 in a lifetime best. He'll likely offer value and is worth a shot. (1) SF TERRIFIC KISSER drops down in class, which I feel he'll appreciate. He draws inside and has a good record this season. (3) SHINY MACH moves into the Auciello barn who has had a terrific 2012 season. This horse gets off the gate very well and likely will be a top threat in here. Don't expect much value.

Race 3

(2) MICA HANOVER will likely be the post time favourite. Last week, he came from well off-the-pace from post 10 to finish second. He draws inside this week and is the horse to beat. (3) CAN HE GO scored a major upset in the Autumn final two starts ago, but I'm not convinced he's a winner in here. I think he can be top three and draws inside. (8) BEGINNERS LUCK has been top three in each of his last two starts. He comes from top conditioner is a good option for your triactor wagers.

Race 4

(1) ROCKYS FIRST did all the work last week to find the winner's circle in impressive fashion. He's made breaks in the past, but it appears he's back to his old self. He's up in class, but certainly can handle the jump. (6) VACATION DAY had to deal with post 10 last start and finished second. He draws better and I expect another solid effort. (9) HERE COMES JENNY won’t go off at 26-1 like last start. Her 1:54 2/5 win was very impressive.

Race 5

(1) LIFEIMITTATESART was making up countless ground in deep stretch last week to finish third. He draws the rail after having post 10 last start and he's a top contender in here. (6) GOBAN did all the work in both of his latest starts before giving up the lead in deep stretch. He's a very playable horse at this level and likely will offer low value. (9) COLLEGE MAJOR hasn't been drawing the best in his last number of starts. He can race near the front or behind which helps.

Race 6

(3) ADREAMCOMESTRUE AS has been racing very consistently in her last few starts and I expect that to continue at this same level. She has to potential to step up her performance and find the winner's circle. (8) MONEY MAVEN has been knocking on the door in his last few starts. He's a good option to have at this level. (9) JOSEPH GERARD delivered as the post time favourite in his latest. He's only been off the board once in his five career appearances.

Race 7

(9) AAHM A GESTURE appears to be a one-dimensional horse for Moreau. It appears his best stride comes on the front-end. If he can make the front from post nine, I like his chances. (4) ANNUITY got away too far back last start and draws a better post this week. He might offer value in here, but certainly worth a look at. (2) PRO DUECE moves up in class and deserves to after a first and second place finish in his last two starts. He draws inside and has a good record this season.

Race 8

(1) COACH CAL is due to step up his game and find the winner's circle. This is a lighter field than he's faced in recent weeks and comes from a top barn. (6) PASS THE DEUCE has been racing very well as of late and that likely will continue in here. He likes to race from behind and that doesn't bother me in this short field. (3) TERCO CORAZON moves out of the claiming ranks and in this class for Wallace. He notched an impressive win two starts ago. A repeat effort and he's a major threat.

Race 9

(7) POP COP didn't find racing room until late last week and likely will be the favourite in here. He's got one start under his belt after a layoff and likely will drop time. (4) BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE moves up in class after an impressive win last week. He posted a solid final quarter and can handle the jump in class. (8) MACHINIST might be a longshot play to some, but I'm going to give him a try. He raced very well last week and that may happen again.

Race 10

(7) UNDERCOVER STRIKE has won five consecutive races and doing so in impressive fashion. There's no question that he's the horse to beat. (5) ZEUS LIGHTNING really caught my eye last week. He made a break off the gate and rebounded with a third-place finish. Don't count him out. (6) STAR RUFFNREADY delivered as expected in his latest effort. He moves up in class, but had performed very well at this level in the past.

Race 11

(10) BORDEAUXS BEST found the winner's circle for first-time starter Auciello last week. He's at the same level, but has post 10. I think he can overcome it. (9) KENNAIRN BUCKWHEAT has been racing very well in his last few starts. He enjoys racing from behind and if they go quick speed, I like his chances. (4) ART I SPECIAL finished third last week at this level. Moreau hasn't had him very long, but I expect another top three effort.

 

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