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Woodbine Harness: Monday 1/21 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (4 - 8 / $14.70): SHARK FANTASY (9th)
Spot Play: DARK PRINCE (11th)
(3) FALCOR BLUESTONE moves back onto this circuit after a victory at Georgian Downs. I like the fact that he's fresh off a win and will face a lesser group than he previously has competed against while on this circuit. (1) NORTHERN SPARK trotted a good mile last week to finish second. The winner led from start to finish and he got the two-hole trip. He's got post one and I imagine similar tactics will try to be used. (6) INCREDABLE FRANK was the favourite last week and a big reason was because Jamieson was in the bike. I don't think he can win, but depending on value, I'd play him.
(6) AMAZING QUEST won in a sizzling 1:51 2/5 last start, which is incredible for this class. He'll likely be the heavy favourite and rightfully so. (2) MY FELLA is also fresh off a win and remains at the same level. He's won three of his last four starts in this class. (1) CORPORATE SHARK enters the claimers for the first time on this circuit and begins from post one. He should appreciate the class drop and begins inside.
(4) DEFINE THE WORLD looked like his old self last week after he scored a hard-fought win. He's progressively gotten stronger since his layoff and is in top form right now. (7) WATKINS did all the work last week and had to settle for second, behind DEFINE THE WORLD. I'd expect him to be forwardly-placed off the gate again and he likely won’t offer much of a price. (2) ZEUS LIGHTNING has been racing very well in his last number of starts. He moves up in class, but faces many of the same rivals. It's a short field and I would definitely consider him for the triactor.
(4) ORILLIA JOE is a perfect two-for-two and scored a comfortable win in his last start. He moves up in class, but shows he has a lot of potential. His breeding is also attractive being a half-brother to Oscar Oscar (1:48.1 - $315,461). (5) GROWLY GUS's effort last week leads me to pick him for second. He was hard-used early in the mile and was still stalking at the finish line. It looks like his best stride comes near or on the front. (2) JOHNNY PRINE TYME finally got a good trip last week and was able to hit the board. The two starts prior he was parked out at the quarter. He draws inside, usually provides value and can be top three with the right trip.
(4) ROCKYS FIRST drops down in class and I think he'll appreciate it. He was racing well at a higher level, but not winning. This class better suits him and he starts from a good spot. (5) CANBEC FRIDOLIN has been knocking on the door at this level despite getting good trips. He's had a few chances to win in this class and has failed to do so, but is a very good option for the exactor. (6) CHUCKALO CADEN finished third at this level last start and he's certainly capable of putting together another good effort.
(3) FLYING INSTRUCTOR finally draws inside after a pair of outside posts, which should make him much more competitive. He was always too far back at the half, but this week I can't see that happening. He comes from a top barn and has enough speed to win. (8) FIRE UP THE MACH was on cruise control when he won last week for Byron over at Kawartha Downs. There were five claims entered on this horse two starts ago, which shows he was in demand. Any type of repeat effort like last week and he's a big threat. (6) SKY MCFLY races much better when he's put into the race and not too far back. If he's positioned in the middle of the pack, I like his chances.
(5) DG CASH FOR LIFE has won two straight for Auciello and remains at the same level as he did last week. He got a great two-hole trip last week and enjoys being put on or near the front. (1) FAITHFUL ONE has won two of his last three starts and moves up in class. Despite being five-year-old, he’s very lightly raced and continues to improve. (3) DOOWRAH OMELET came from off-the-pace last week and closed well to finish fourth. He draws better this week and I don’t think he’ll be that far back. Keep in mind that he finished top three in 13 of 18 starts last year.
This is a very wide-open race in my opinion, but I'm putting (6) P L COOPER as my top selection. He went a first-over journey last week and finished second. With a cleaner trip, I think he's got a good shot to win. (3) CON BRIO HALL finished fifth last start for new trainer Fellows, but was on the outside the entire mile. He draws inside and does show gate-speed, so I'm looking for a different trip. (7) RATE EXCHANGE is a longshot play and he will offer value. I'm hoping the fractions are honest and he can pick them off late. He doesn't have gate-speed, but can close well.
(3) SHARK FANTASY disappointed me last week. He was pressured to clear to the front, but he didn't have any fight in him late in the mile. He'll likely offer low value and I thought he would have won this class either last start or two starts ago. He's overdue to win at this level. I'm aware that (5) MANCHESTER hasn't raced since Boxing Day, which is a worry, but he showed extreme speed in his first lifetime start. I think he can only get better off that effort and I can't see him getting too far behind. (4) DALLAS SEELSTER is very lightly-raced and likely will offer a price. This field isn't very deep and he's worth a look.
(9) PACIFIC WESTERN has been racing very well in his last two starts. He didn't clear until past the half last week and still fought off his rivals to win. He's the logical pick and shows terrific gate-speed. (3) INSTANT THRILL finished in the top three in 10 of 18 starts last year and already has a second-place finish this year. He comes out of Moreau's barn, draws inside and is very competitive in this field. (4) DJ LANCE got a ground-saving trip last week and was able to finish third. I'm not confident he can win, but he usually provides good value and I'd certainly include him in the triactor.
(2) DARK PRINCE won in his latest start and drops lasix this week. He remains at the same level, draws inside and I expect Jamieson to forwardly-place him off-the-gate. Keep in mind, he provided a decent payout last start and drew inside. (1) DAPPER DENZIL is fresh off the claim and he's usually too far back at the half to be a top threat. He draws inside and I'm hoping for a different type of steer from Baillargeon. I hope he's more aggressively-driven. (3) RODS FAMOUS RIBS moves up in class, but deserves to after a pair of terrific performances. He's had a solid start to his 2013 season and draws inside.