11/06/2015 4:47PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 11/9 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 7/2,4,5/1,2,3/1,3,5,7/1,6 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5,7/6/1,6,9/4,5,6,7,9 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 4,5,6,7,9/2,4,5/6/3,4,5 = $45

MEET STATS: 60 - 219 / 270.50  BEST BETS: 9 - 19 / $33.10

SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 20 / 38.00

Best Bet: LAY LADY LAY (1st)

Spot Play: BAGEL MAN (7th)

Race 1

(7) LAY LADY LAY was a strong winner in the first leg of this series last week and stands a good chance of repeating, although likely somewhere around even money on the board. (1) ACTIVE LADY picks up white-hot top driver Filion who seems to move every horse up first time he climbs into the sulky. (4) LADY MARINA is the likely pacesetter but needs to find more late speed to outsprint the top two.

Race 2

(4) THINK AGAIN was hung out a long way last week trying to make the front. Christoforou returns for a second drive and may have learned something last week; top call. (2) HES GONE BAD has improved in every start in the new barn since a private sale early last month. He will get a more aggressive steer at some point; maybe tonight? (5) HP BLACK SHADOW made a big move down the backside last week then only tired late. He is due for a better trip and could be a good play here if the price is right.

Race 3

(2) HAILEYSGONEDANCING returned from a short break in sharp condition last week and is a good bet to double up here. (1) TREASURE GIFTS K was cutting into the choice's lead late in a very good performance and is the main threat here. (3) ERJA comes in off a break and trainer Rekila hands the lines to a catch driver; beware.

Race 4

(3) VEGAS RICH gets a big driver switch and should be driven much more aggressively here; top contender in a field with few. (7) CARACCI HANOVER got scorched on a wet track two back then took a less aggressive approach last time and closed in 26 1/5. He rates highly here. (5) VITAL SIGN put two good ones together in a row but then broke last time. He has a shot here if flat.

Race 5

(6) IMKEEPNTHISGUY roared home last time to take a new life's mark and is the one to knock off here. (1) DEES ROCKETMAN got a clean line down on a track rated two seconds slow and could be heard from earlier in the mile here. (9) HOT ROCK STAR ships in and brings good form with him from the 'B' tracks. He could share here at a price.

Race 6

(1) ASPEN CALIFORNIA returns from a break and has the speed to contend with these. She could be a square price, too. (6) KAMIKAZE LINDY went off at 1/5 last time and went on an extended break at the start. He's fast but erratic. (9) MAGICAL PUMPKIN can threaten here if she stays trotting.

Race 7

The last time 53-time winner (5) BAGEL MAN shipped in to a WEG track, he popped at 9/1 odds; history repeats? (6) RETAIL makes his first start for the always dangerous Waxman barn and is a must-use on Pick 4 tickets. (7) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT drops into claimers and will take lots of money at the windows. This infrequent winner is worth trying to beat here.

Race 8

(5) TYMAL FIREITUP was a sharp winner then a vet scratch (sick). Filion will have this filly prominently placed here. (2) LMC MARSHMELLOW came under siege in the third 1/4 last week and held on decently considering the quick fractions. She'll be tough in here. (4) SHEGUINDAH tried it first-up and pushed a rapid pace then tired. She could do here with a better trip.

Race 9

(6) BARBARAS SHADOW picked up a lot of ground late last time but was too far back at the 3/4 to make a run at the leaders. The small field should help here; top call. (5) NOONE TO DEPEND ON parlayed a good trip into an opening leg win in this series. Her good tactical speed is an advantage in this 7-filly field. (1) BOOZER BRUISER was passed by a very sharp first-over challenger last time and then a couple of others late. She should do better vs. this group.

Race 10

(5) SAULSBROOK PEACH is an infrequent winner but may have tipped his hand last week with his sharp closing 1/4; slight nod in a wide-open finale. (4) BRUSTER HANOVER moves inside and could wake up at a big price here. (3) SAVANNAH SPLENDOR has returned from a long break in good form and is a threat from close range here. (9) HIT AND GIGGLE A was sent hard early as expected last time and tired late. Another outer post does him no favors here. (8) ZINGERS LAUGH typically shares and should get a check here, too.

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