01/17/2015 12:12PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 1/19 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4 PLAY (Race 4):

2,4,7 / 3,9 / 2,5 / 1,6 = $24

MEET STATS: 11 - 21 / $70.50  BEST BETS: 2 - 2 / $13.20

Best Bet: MACH DREAMER (10th)


Race 1

(2) MACHMILLIONS pulled off a 74/1 shocker off a 6-week break last week. It is very possible that he will be even sharper back in a week so we expect a repeat but the price may be prohibitive. (4) IDEAL SHADOW did well to stay within 5 lengths at the finish in the Valedictory Final considering he was out the route. Many fizzle the first start back following a series Final and this one missed some time so it's a tough call. (5) SEA STAR was doomed by the 7 post at London last week but certainly looks like one of the better ones here based on previous local miles.

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Race 2

(8) CHARMED LIFE is the only one in the field that shows a win in the Preferred and she has three straight following her bang-up 4th in the Breeders Crown. She holds a massive class edge here and is tough to go against. (7) FEARLESS MAN was moved several times by a supremely confident Zeron last week and should be feared off that stellar mile. (6) CATCH THE DREAM tried in vain to chase Fearless Man down in the lane but that was also his best effort in some time.

Race 3

(7) JUST CALL ME LADY has been closing rapidly late in her last couple and need only be within 5 lengths or so at the 3/4 to take this group down. (2) NEILS GOLDEN GIRL also shows good late speed in a filed littered with quitters. Don't sell her short. (4) PASSED DA POINT showed some life when dropped into claimers last week both early and late in his mile. The Z Man may try to send this guy right down the road.

Race 4

(7) HARBOR PLACE was a sharp winner last week, now moves in a couple of posts and has a recency edge on her main rival (2) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT. The latter obviously has the speed to contend but has missed almost a month which is a big concern. (4) SHIPPEN OUT showed big improvement in his last without doing much work of his own. He can hit the tri if covered up most of the way.

Race 5

(3) LITTLE QUICK has been ultra-consistent of late and gets another favorable pace scenario to set up his late kick; top call. (9) ROCKNROLL BAND got the job done first time off Lasix and the early pace shape also favors his closing style. (7) LIBERTYS BEST STAR is as game as they come when he makes front and totally ineffective otherwise. His fortunes may depend on whether or not the 10 horse fires off the gate (which he normally does).

Race 6

(5) NORTHERN VICTORY was winning well in higher classes in late summer at Mohawk. He looks to be regaining his best form and will be tough to beat in here. (2) SAMIRA HANOVER's best game is on the front but with other early speed signed on she may look to take control of the race on the backside. (8) STANDING MY GROUND was just nailed in the final strides Monday night after cutting the mile and will be winging early for Zeron again but is likely to face opposition earlier in this mile.

Race 7

This is the weakest group (1) LOST IN PANSLATION has faced in a while and he may just steal this on the front end. (6) HOPETOBEFIRST continues to show good closing power but Henry will need to keep him closer here to have a shot at getting home first. (8) PL GYRO will be closing - but likely after the winner has been decided - and is a good one for the bottom of tri and super wagers.

Race 8

(4) RANDYS PLAN closed like he was shot out of a cannon down the Woodbine stretch last week to take his debut at 40/1. You don't often see moves like that from first-time starters anywhere, but especially not at Woodbine in the dead of winter. He gets the call to repeat. (3) CAMVICTED debuts off a nice qualifier at London over a track rated 4 seconds slow. He should be competitive immediately. (5) EARTHQUAKE MADNESS was a failed favorite in his first start over the big track but that was a decent enough outing to suggest he can compete here.

Race 9

(1) EW FISHER, a winner of nearly $300K lifetime, shipped in last week and destroyed a conditioned group of trotters. He now drops right in for a $12K claiming tag which is a bit of a head-scratcher but his trainer has been winning with everything lately. (7) TYMAL COLLOSUS left hard, took a shuffle then closed well late. He looks live but has also been off more than a month. (8) RANDOM MAJORITY was a regular winner last season and his middle move first up last week may indicate a return to better form is imminent.

Race 10

(6) MACH DREAMER takes a huge class plunge here and is obviously the fastest and classiest. The night's best bet. (8) BLISSFUL YEARS had his win streak broken last week but performed well considering the class hike and his early positioning. He can get a big piece of this. (5) SAVANNAH SPLENDOR responded well to the class drop last week and should make the ticket again. (1) BURNING SHORE challenged first up and paid the price last week but is a good bet to hit the exotics here from the rail. Saftic is likely to keep him covered up to the stretch then pick a few off late. (2) SMARTER YET ships in from Miami Valley and hits the top three 50% of the time. He is another good one for the bottom of Supers and Hi-5s.

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