01/12/2013 3:46PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 1/14 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (3 - 8 / $10.80): SWEET TALKIN SATIN (5th)   

Spot Play: ALWAYS AN OPTIMIST (9th)

Race 1

(4) SHARK FANTASY has been the runner-up in each of his last two starts. He shows good closing speed, draws well and is due to win. (2) PAPPYS PAL came from well off-the-pace to finish a hard-closing third in his last start. He showed a much-improved effort and draws inside. (7) AHDOUGNOLUM went a very tough trip last start over Georgian Downs. I think he'll appreciate the bigger track and shows enough talent to be a threat.

Race 2

I'm price shopping with (6) MEADOWVIEWARNY. He moves onto the bigger track and showed enough speed over Georgian Downs to be a winner at this bottom class. He'll need a trip. (5) AMIGO RANGER gets significant class relief, draws well and is certainly a contender in this class. (3) PRESTO PEGASUS closed very well last week despite finishing fifth. He was 15 lengths off at one point and beaten by less than five for the win. He draws much better and I expect a more aggressive approach.

Race 3

(5) FAITHFUL ONE is very lightly-raced and shows promising speed. He'll offer very low value and I expect an off-the-pace trip. (2) LONG FIGHT HANOVER might have been my top pick, but he doesn't like to win. He's won one race from 13 starts, but has been racing very competitive in this class. (7) TOMMY TWO SHOES moves onto this circuit and I'm hoping he offers value. He enjoys racing on the front and I'm hoping to capitalize.

Race 4

(2) CHUCKALO CADEN moved up in class last week and raced very well considering he was first-over. With a cleaner trip, I like his chances and he may provide a better price. (3) CANBEC FRIDOLIN is always a threat at this level and draws inside. He enjoys being put into the race early and had a very respectable 2012 campaign. (6) GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE is fresh off a win and second place effort in his last two starts. He comes out of the Moreau barn, which never hurts and may offer value.

Race 5

(7) SWEET TALKIN SATIN would be a going-away winner last start before making a break down the stretch. He still recovered to finish second and if he behaves himself, he's clearly the horse to beat in here. (6) DOOWRAH OMELET finished third at this level last start. He had a successful 2012 season and I expect another excellent effort. (4) DGS CASH FOR LIFE raced extremely well to win last start while providing a terrific return. It comes out of the Auciello barn, which was been very good lately.

Race 6

(1) HALLUCINATION has been knocking on the door in his last three starts and was only beaten a neck last week for the win. He loves to leave the gate and has been blessed with post one. (7) POWER SHOT is always a threat in this class and finished third at a higher level last week. (6) MERITED VICTORY has won three-straight and moves into the Macmillan barn. He also shifts onto this circuit and I think he can handle the transition.

Race 7

If (3) POP COP can get left alone on the front, I like his chances. He's not the best at passing horses, but rather being on top and dictating the pace. Don't expect much value. (6) ESPEN DE VIE shows that he can be inconsistent at times, but he raced very well last week to finish second. He shows enough speed to be a top contender in here. (4) FANTASTIC ROCK comes from the O'Sullivan barn, which is never a bad thing. He hasn't been on his game lately, so I'm looking for an improved effort.

Race 8

(2) CRACKER ZACK is long overdue for a win and it may happen in here. He's been very consistent at this level and is due to jump up. (9) AUGUSTA has won three-straight and deserves a chance to race on this circuit. She doesn't show the best gate-speed, so I hope she doesn't get away too far back. (7) OSPREY STRIKE is a longshot pick, but he raced terrific last start to finish second, only beaten by a head. I'm price shopping and hoping for another solid effort.

Race 9

(6) ALWAYS AN OPTOMIST has won four of his last five starts including a stakes final in his most recent outing. He comes from top conditioner Moreau and likely will offer a low price. (2) EXPLODENT has been racing very competitive in his last number of starts and that likely will continue. He draws inside and is a major threat in here. (8) DANIEL SEMALU is fresh off a claim and a victory in his most recent. He offered value last start and it may happen again. Look for off-the-pace tactics.

Race 10

(8) ZEUS LIGHTNING drops out of the Preferred and into this level. He's been on his game lately and very consistent. Don't expect to see much value. (1) E W FISHER raced very well last start and showed a much-improved effort in the Preferred. He was only beaten less than two lengths for the win. (3) DELCREST JULIAN showed me a disappointing effort last start. He got a good trip and failed to fire home for trainer Moreau. He draws well again and I'm looking for a better effort.

Race 11

(8) MY FELLA has lots of back-class and won at this level in his last two of three starts. He's classified correctly again and I expect to see an aggressive-drive from MacDonald. (6) BREW shows that he can be inconsistent at times, but has proven to be very competitive in this class. He draws well and I expect to see value on him. (7) PROFESSORSDAPAPERS moved back to this circuit last week and finished third, while providing a terrific return. He had a respectable campaign last season and I think he'll offer terrific value once again.
 

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