11/02/2015 9:37AM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 11/2 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 6,8/1,3,8/2,3,4/2,3/6,7 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4:2,3/6,7/4,6,7/1,4,10 = $36

LATE PICK 4:10/3,4,6,9/1,3,5/1,3,6,9 = $48

MEET STATS: 51 - 178 / 227.40  BEST BETS: 6 - 15 / $18.00

SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 16 / 30.30

Best Bet: LAY LADY LAY (5th)

Spot Play: HES GONE BAD (4th)

Race 1

(8) JULERICA looks much the best here off last week's lifetime-best score but the price on him will drop dramatically. (6) SPORTS LIGHTNING was a decent 2nd to the choice first time in a claimer and figures again. (1) STEVES LEGACY took a shuffle in the same race and is capable of better with a clean trip.

Race 2

(1) HAILEYSGONEDANCING shows some miles from the summer that make her competitive in this inexperienced field. Trainer sends them ready; top call. (3) T C SNO MASSIVE raced okay last week and her good early speed makes her a threat here in what could be a paceless race. (8) TYMAL TEMPEST made the Breeders Crown final but broke stride during the race. She has a much better shot here and could try to wire this field.

Race 3

(2) LMC MARSHMELLOW was live last week but was thwarted by the slow pace carved out by the leader. That one is in here too but she will likely get pushed a bit harder early. (3) MEADOW SEELSTER slowed the pace to a crawl in the middle stages then sprinted away. Her good early speed always makes her a threat it seems. (4) JUDY THE BEAUTY's good closing power could come into play here in a race that figures to have a bit of action early.

Race 4

(3) HES GONE BAD showed little until the end of the mile last week where he was closing late. Perhaps coming back onto a 7-day cycle will make him sharper and more aggressive. (2) THINK AGAIN finally moves inside after leaving from outside posts for several weeks. Sharp improvement is very possible. (1) HP BLACK SHADOW was first up last week then tired.  An easier trip and better result is feasible.

Race 5

(7) LAY LADY LAY provided perfect cover for the winner last time but was game and nailed only very late. She looks best here. (6) ACTIVE LADY was nailed late for the 2nd week in a row but will get there soon with her good speed. (4) MAXIM SEELSTER closed well into an accelerating pace and merits inclusion on Pick 4 tickets.

Race 6

(7) FRANNIEGETYOURGUN finished 2nd two starts back to the filly that was subsequently 2nd in the Breeders Crown final. She should do well here with the class drop if she stays flat. (6) HURRICANE HAZEL makes her first start since being sold for $43K earlier in the month. The new connections are likely looking for an immediate return; using. (4) COUNTRY PROPHET won a class lower in his Woodbine debut. He's a contender but likely needs to knock a couple of seconds off to beat these.

Race 7

(10) HIT AND GIGGLE A drops in class here and could clear these early and be gone. (1) WARAWEE PHEONIX moves inside which gives him a much better chance to contend. (4) CANADIAN EDITION has been racing well in the top classes out of town and fits here.

Race 8

(9) LADY MARINA has been solid since ditching stakes company and will be tough to beat here. (4) NOONE TO DEPEND ON is stuck on one win but can trip out here with her good tactical speed and is one to stick on late pick 4 tickets. (6) BARBARAS SHADOW showed marked improvement in her second start and would be no surprise here.

Race 9

(1) VEGAS RICH showed little last time vs. a winner that is unbeaten this year. This is an easier spot and he should be more prominent throughout. (3) HIDDEN POTENTIAL has been racing well out of town and his good tactical speed gives him a shot here. (5) AMERICAN ROCK left hard then followed a strong winner home. He's another in with a shot here as he should be up near the front throughout.

Race 10

(1) TWIN B SPORTSMAN finally got a good post last week and just about pulled off the upset. There vs. this group. (3) IWILLNOTBEMACHED ships in from Yonkers and his form there should transfer well vs. these. (6) STATE NEWS set out on a speed mission last time but was overtaken on the backstretch. He should be prominent here. (9) ON THE ROCKS broke while moving last time. His effort two back makes him a contender if he can come close to repeating it. (7) JET ER DONE has really improved his form in the past three starts at Kawartha and could get a piece of this at a price.

[DRF HARNESS: Check out our complete lineup of Harness past performances and discount packages]