11/14/2015 3:41PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 11/16 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK  5: 4,6/3,5,8/1,4,5/1/1,2,6 = $10.80

EARLY PICK 4: 1/1,4,5/2,4,5/1,6,7,8,10 = $45

LATE PICK 4: 1,6,7,8,10/1,8,10/2.5/5,6 = $60

MEET STATS: 73 - 261 / $338.20  BEST BETS: 13 - 23 / $44.20

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 23 / $63.00

Best Bet: LAY LADY LAY (4th)

Spot Play: SHOCKING IMAGE (6th)

Race 1

(4) ON THE ROCKS chased down a loose leader in deep stretch last time out and fits this class well. He should get some pace to chase here, too. (6) IMKEEPNTHISGUY continues to motor home every week and will be the one to fend off late. (5) SPORTS WARNING returns off a promising qualifier and may have whatever issues that were keeping him on the sidelines cured.

Race 2

(5) HAILEYSGONEDANCING was conservatively driven last week after winning an opening leg two starts back. Expect some Jackie Mo aggression here in this final. (3) TYMAL TEMPEST was allowed to cut a 1:00 4/5 middle half while beating the choice last week. That is unlikely to happen here, but she is the main danger. (8) LIBERTY LANE had a long trip when third to the two above and has upset possibilities here.

Race 3

(1) TOTALLY RIPPED made a first-over move and provided nice cover for the winner last time. The addition of Lasix here may put him over the top. (5) LEXUS ROCKY class drops and should be much more competitive. (4) GAME ON HANOVER won several times on this circuit earlier this year and looks like she's back on track based on her last two starts; beware.

Race 4

(1) LAY LADY LAY is clearly the top filly in this series and will be very tough to beat leaving from the inside. (4) STARTLED woke up last week with a good late charge and could get a good setup here and crack the exotics at a big price. (8) LADY MARINA was a strong 2nd to the choice last week but this post won't help her cause.

Race 5

(2) PRINCE CLYDE takes a big class drop here and looks tough to beat. (1) SOMEWHERE FANCY has been facing better down south and looks like the other main contender in a race with few. (6) REASONABLE FORCE should be placed better early leaving from the middle of the gate which gives him a puncher's chance of upsetting the top two.

Race 6

(4) SHOCKING IMAGE set some big fractions early last time then finished evenly. He could get things his own way here and wire this group. (5) HES GONE BAD will get pushed early by Hudon one of these weeks and when he does he will be right there at the wire. (2) REGAL FAME's comeback effort from the 10-hole wasn't horrible. He should improve sharply.

Race 7

(6) IL SOGNO DREAM is the class of this group and will likely take his third straight. (1) SLIP INTO GLIDE showed little on a speed-biased track last week but should get placed closer early; using. (8) CATCH THE DREAM fires home quickly every week. Any mid-race battling helps him.

Race 8

(10) IDOLE DUHARAS drops back to the class he was claimed from and should be formidable. (8) ALWAYS THERE goes first off the claim and could improve. (1) MACH TWO POINT SIX won last time he shipped in to Woodbine. Don't sell this one short.

Race 9

(2) TWIN B SPORTSMAN cut some big fractions last week and just failed to hold on. More careful rating gets the job done here. (5) MANNY IN SPORTS returns from a break to face much easier. He should be right in the mix. (1) HP BLACK SHADOW should get a good following trip here and can share.

Race 10

(5) CLIFF DRUMMOND ships in from Quebec in good form. Moreau won with one with a similar profile last week. Expect a big drop in time here. (6) THEPANINSULAHOTEL drops to the lowest level and should be respected here. (1) MILLIONDOLLARCELL can get a good piece of this if he reverts to the tactics used two back. (8) SAVANNAH SPLENDOR should share from close range. (4) ZINGERS LAUGH has raced well in both starts on the big circuit and can better this placing.

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