10/03/2015 3:48PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 10/5 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,3,4,5,7,9/4,5/4/3,6,10/6 = $8.40

EARLY PICK 4: 3,6,10/6/1,3,4/1,4,7,9 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 1,4,7,9/1,2/4,6/2,3,4,8 = $64

MEET STATS: 5 - 10 / 35.70  BEST BETS: 0 - 1 / $0.00

SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 1 / 21.10


Spot Play: NATES BUCKY (9th)

Race 1

(9) JAYPORT ON THE EDGE has shown good early speed in his past three which should play well here if he can make the front early; slight nod in a wide-open start to the pick 5. (7) NORTHERN BRUISER can also leave quickly and could get a good trip here. (5) TALBOTCREEK SUZIE is 0-28 but is capable of hitting the ticket vs. this group.

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Race 2

(4) BLUSH AND CRUSH and (5) E L ROCK won the two most recent amateur races on this circuit. We'll use those two in the Pick 5 with a slight nod to the former who is in better overall form. (10) DICKS SECRET made a threatening first-up move last time before tiring and could spice up the exotics here.

Race 3

(4) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE is on a roll that doesn't seem likely to be stopped here; Pick 5 single. (1) PIER HO TEMPTATION followed along for 2nd to the choice last time and that trip could be repeated here. (5) DEETZY makes his first start in a claimer and should grab a share here.

Race 4

(3) IMKEEPNTHISGUY has been racing well on the 'B' tracks and trainer Brealey had a sharp winner in the finale on the opening card last Thursday; top call. (6) UNIX HANOVER has made the front immediately the past two times he started with his nose on the gate. He could take these a long way. (10) ROLLING ROCK raced much better than ever before in his season's debut. He could pop at a big price here.

Race 5

(6) STORMONT WIZARD has faced better most of the year and has found a field he should handle here. (5) TYMAL WIZARD raced here last Thursday and lost all chance with a break at the start. He can get a good piece of this if he stays flat. (8) STRIKING IVY faced one two back that has since won two more in a row and last time was in against one of the best sophomore trotting fillies in the country. The easier company should help here.

Race 6

(1) BEAST MODE is one of few in this that has shown he can leave quickly. He may make the front and steal a soft first 1/2 here which would make him very tough to beat. (4) NOTETOSELF HANOVER is another that can leave and has faced better most of the year; contender. (3) JACK RACKHAM was closing fast last time but ran out of racetrack. He could do here if close enough turning home.

Race 7

(1) ROCK ME AMASTREOS lost his cover on the far turn last time when the winner sprinted away. He should make an early move for the front here and try to bottom this field out. (9) BALI has faced better in the top classes out of town and could pop here if he gets an alert start. (4) GRANDKIDS ATTACK has been involved in some rapid early paces his past two starts and should be close early which gives him a chance here.

Race 8

(1) BUZZ made a threatening move around the final turn last time then leveled out when the winner drove away. This group should be more to his liking. (2) ELDORADO OF GOLD S was a sharp maiden-breaker and can't be counted out here. (3) NOBLE POWER is getting closer to a win and is another to consider for the late pick 4.

Race 9

(4) NATES BUCKY got in a blindswitch at the worst time last week and surely would have challenged the winner if not locked in when that one was making his winning move. Henry should get tonight's Spot Play rolling earlier here. (6) LATE NIGHT took a ton of action at the windows but was too far back early from the 10-hole. Expect a more aggressive drive from McNair here. (7) ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL will take betting action and no doubt offer a minor share, as always in this class.

Race 10

(4) THE ROCK excelled in a new barn and class last week and is a good bet to double up here. (2) ARAZI has blinding early speed which may play better over this track compared to Mohawk. (8) SIERRA MADRE is most likely to capitalize if any speed duels develop. (3) VEGILANTE HANOVER comes off a nice win at Kawartha and could sit a good following trip here just behind the speed. (5) GOLD STAR LAMBEAU will be passing horses late and should make the bottom rung of the Super or High-5.

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