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Woodbine Harness: Friday 5/17 Analysis
Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (24 - 43 / $83.50): LOVE CANAL (2nd)
Spot Play: SHIPPS XPECTANCY (8th)
(5) NOTALKINGBACK put up a good fight in the Princess Series final in her most recent start. She did all the work en route to a second place finish behind the undefeated Belle Boyd. This is an easier group and she has a good record this season. (7) DOTTIE HANOVER dropped significant time last week from his first start of the season. She's coming into this race in good form and may offer a price. (6) OK FIESTY put together her best start of the season last week. She finished fourth in the Princess final at high odds. Last week could be the turnaround point.
(4) LOVE CANAL won the OSS Super Final last season and appears to have come back in top form. She was a top rated rookie last season and qualified very well. (1) LEAVEUMLADY is very lightly-raced with one win from two career starts. She qualified very well with a solid final quarter. She's ready to drop significant time. (2) MARLEE B has only missed the board once from six career starts. She draws inside and is fresh off a win.
(3) ZORWIJK NOVA got away well back and closed very well to score the win in her first start of the season last week. She enjoyed a successful 2012 season and appears to be a top ranked filly. (7) LEGZY banked more than $200K last season and qualified well last week. She might need a start or two to find her legs, but she can't be overlooked with her record from last season. (9) STANDING MY GROUND was the heavy favourite in the Celias Counsel Final before making a break behind the gate. If she minds her manners, she's proven to be a top contender.
(9) ANGIES LUCKY STAR posted a terrific qualifying win by more than 11 lengths. She had a solid campaign last year, shows gate-speed and finishes her miles very strong. (8) WITHOUT A CLUE moves onto this circuit after being timed in 1:56 4/5 in his most recent start. He enjoyed a credible 2012 season and is a good option to consider for the exactor. (1) MISS PANTHERS draws inside and has been much better in her most recent starts. She shows enough speed and has hit the board in four of her last five starts.
(7) JUDGE JON drops in class and that's the main reason for my selection. Fletcher is a high percentage trainer and this horse is classified accordingly. (8) DOCS HOSS also drops in class and was timed in 1:51 4/5 two starts ago. Any type of repeat effort like that and he's a top threat. (10) EVENING JOB has been claimed in three of his last four starts. He'll have to overcome post 10, but shows gate-speed and will debut for high percentage trainer Nixon.
(7) BEE A MAGICIAN is an O'Brien Award winner and based on her resume last season is the horse to beat in here. She qualified well and will look for the same result as last season. (8) CHARMED LIFE is a perfect two-for-two this season and banked $250k last season as a rookie. She's very versatile and likely will offer a low price. (4) MOTOWN MUSCLE trotted home in :27 last week to finish second. That was her first start of the season and although she finished second, she was very impressive.
(6) CAMS VAN GO moved into the O'Sullivan to start the season and was very impressive in her win last week. It was her first start of the season and she remains at the same level. (1) LANESIDE LEXUS drops significantly in class and draws inside. She had a terrific 2012 season and at this level is a top threat. (7) BRUSHTROKES is very versatile, but will need the right trip to be effective. If she's not hard-used early in the mile then I feel she's very capable of being top two.
(5) SHIPPS XPECTANCY has been knocking on the door at this level and is due for a win. He has gate-speed, draws well and comes from a high percentage trainer. (7) JERSEY JOE hasn't missed the board in three starts this season. He finished second in this class last week, beaten only by a neck for the win. (1) GENTLEMAN FRIEND draws inside and might be considered a longshot. He closed well last week and it appeared that the addition of lasix has helped.
(5) BRUCE THE BRAVE hasn't posted a win yet this season, but has been trotting very strong miles. He's trotted in sub-1:55 in his last two starts and that should be good enough to win this class. (9) DUKE OF DONEGAL draws outside, but shows gate-speed and is a factor in this class. He made a break last week which I'm going to overlook because that is very uncharacteristic of him. (8) MASTER BUILDER is fresh off a win and moves into this condition class. He tends to be inconsistent, but if the fractions are honest, it only increases his chances.
(5) CHARDONARY SEELSTER has been very consistent this season and has a terrific record. She's fresh off a win and moves up slightly in class, but this level isn't much deeper than she's been racing in. (1) EXPRESS JET has been very good for trainer Fine since her claim. She's hit the board in three of her last four starts and although she made a break in stride last week, which I'm going to overlook. (7) MIA SEELSTER is frehs off a win at this level and is a top contender. The race set up very well for her victory and a short field only increases her chances. I suspect Baillargeon will utilize her gate-speed and put her into play like last week.
(4) MACH A WISH drops down in class and this level is much better suited for her. Last time she was in this class was three starts ago where she found the winner's circle. (6) ROBIN CRUISER got away tenth last week and closed to finish sixth. She closed in a fast :26 and can only be better in her second start on this circuit. (5) HOPE FOR PADDY once again drops in class. She went a very tough trip last week, but shouldn't be overlooked at this level.
(2) PALM PATROL draws inside, has terrific gate-speed and drops in class. It has been a number of starts since she's been at this bottom level and I suspect she will take a lot of money. (3) LETS GO GET EM did most of the work last week en route to victory. She remains at the same level and draws the same post . (8) PRECIOUS CAMILL might be a longshot play, but she qualified well with a good final quarter. This marks her first stat of the season and could provide an upset.