02/13/2013 4:53PM

Woodbine Harness: Friday 2/15 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (8 - 19 / $28.80): CONTINUAL VELOCITY (9th)        Spot Play: RANDOM HOLDUP (5th)

 

Race 1

(5) HOUR LAVEC is fresh off the claim and remains at the same level after a second place effort last week. He's classified right, comes from a high percentage trainer and is fresh after a layoff. (6) GUNGA WIN also finished second last start and this field isn't any deeper. He's very versatile and is a good option to have for the exactor. (8) PAIGING KADABRA drew outside last week and faced a much higher class. He's back at a level where he's proven to be successful at in the past.

Race 2

If (7) RUN ON LUCK isn't hard-used to earn the front then I like her chances in here. Her being parked to the opening quarter last week was likely the cause of her second place finish. (4) LAST MINUTE CINDY is a horse that we don't know much about and we have to take into consideration that she's in the Auciello barn. She does show enough speed to belong in here. (5) WARRAWEE LIMELIGHT needs a trip to be at her best. This class suits her well and with the correct trip, she certainly can be a part of the triactor.

Race 3

This is a fairly wide-open race, but I selected (5) YACKETY YAK. He got parked the mile last start in this class and still held on for fifth. He does have good gate-speed and with the right trip, I feel he can win. He's proven to be competitive in this class in the past. (6) STRATEGY does move up in class, but he's been terrific as of late and I think he can make the transition. He gets off the gate well and may offer a price at this higher class. (1) TALE TO TELL gets much needed post relief and may offer some value. He enjoys racing from off-the-pace and I can't see him getting away too far back from post one.

Race 4

The bottom-end class at Woodbine is always a tough race to predict, but (7) RUB N TUG is a good option to consider for the win. She dropped down to this class last week and finished third, beaten by less than a length for the win. She's capable of winning in here. (5) BULLET POINT did all the work on the front last start and tired down the stretch to finish fourth. At this level, she's a good option to have for second. (4) KEYSTONE JUBILEE has raced at a higher class on this circuit in the past and has enough talent to be a part of the triactor. This bottom level usually offers a good triactor payout.

Race 5

(3) RANDOM HOLDUP scored an impressive win last at Kawartha. His win time of 1:57 3/5 was convincing enough for me to give him the top pick. Not to mention, he comes from a high percentage trainer in Nixon. (1) NOW YOU SEE HIM won at this level past start, which caught me by surprise. In his previous five lines he failed to pick up a cheque. I'm looking for the same type of effort as last week. (4) QUATER BAYAMA adds Lasix for the first time and that's an angle some handicappers might consider. He's proven to be a top contender at this level in the past, draws inside and comes from a top trainer.

Race 6

(1) THREE CHARMS is a mare that I don't think will offer a lot of value. She draws inside and has always raced very competitively in this class. She's hit the board in all four of her starts this season. (4) PLAY AT WYNN is my second selection based on the training angle of top trainer Johnson. She qualified well last start and had a good 2012 season. I expect her to be very competitive in here. (6) CATCH THE DRAGON hasn't missed the board so far this season and although she moves up in class, I feel she can be competitive in this group.

Race 7

(1) ROCA REI gets significant class relief and she drops out of the Fillies & Mares Preferred. She's been very competitive at a higher level and will get a lot of attention in here. (8) MONTENEGRO hasn't missed the board yet this season and has been very consistent. She finished second in this class last week and I think she can do it again. (3) MACHLEEN tends to be inconsistent, but she's fresh off a win. She does move up in class, draws inside and likely will offer a price.

Race 8

(7) JOSEPH GIRARD debuts for new trainer Montini after a private purchase. This horse exploded in deep stretch last week to finish second and Montini has an excellent reputation for first-time starters. (5) MIKESBROTHERFRANK missed the board in two of four starts this season, but had post 10 both times. He draws well once again and if he gets a better trip this week, I like his chances. I don't want to see him first-over. (10) REAL HOUSEWIFE is a filly taking on the boys but that doesn't bother me as she's been very consistent at this level. She does have the gate-speed to overcome post 10 gets the services of Jamieson.

Race 9

(7) CONTINUAL VELOCITY has won four of her last five starts and at this level last week. This is a young field for the Fillies & Mares Preferred event and if she gets her own way on the front, the back-field will have a hard time catching her. (4) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE has advanced tremendously throughout the past few months to take on the best mares on this circuit. She's a terrific option to have for the exactor with her 2-2-1 record this season from five starts. (6) OCEANVIEW BINDI has also advanced very well in her career and certainly has enough speed to make a difference in this race. Don't count her out of the triactor with her consistency.

Race 10

(5) CAMPASSER drops in class and that's the major reason for my selection. The last time he was in this class, three starts ago, he found the winner's circle. (9) CAJON HOT SHOT moves into a claimer by Moreau and that should take notice. Moreau always classifies his horses correctly where he feels they are most competitive. (2) SILVER DRAGON has hit the board in two of three starts this season, all in this class. He draws inside and has terrific gate speed.

Race 11

(2) ADDYS WAY has a very good record this season and although she moves up in class and onto this circuit, she comes out of the Allard barn and that will drop her price. She draws inside and certainly will get attention from handicappers. (6) GOODBADANDDEUGLY N did all the work last week and tired late in the mile to finish second. She can be inconsistent, but I feel she's very competitive in this field. (10) MAMASAIDSO is fresh off the claim and has she drawn inside, she may have been my top pick. She does have the gate-speed to overcome post 10 and shows enough speed to be a top threat.

 

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