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Woodbine Harness: Friday 2/1 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (6 - 13 / $24.00): COOK OFF (2nd)
Spot Play: MACH A WISH (3rd)
This is a fairly wide-open race, but (3) RUB N TUG drops in class and is certainly due for a win. She's won at a much higher level last season and is capable. She should provide a decent price. (5) PASSION R VIRGINIE came from last-to-second last start and exploded in deep stretch to finish her mile with tons of pace. She moves out of the claiming ranks this start, but her last effort was very encouraging. (7) BULLET POINT had a decent 2012 season and will look for a better effort in this class. She finished fourth last week, but the week before she was third as she was closer to the pace. I hope that happens in here.
(6) COOK OFF rebounded last week after making a break the previous start. She remains at the same level that she has won four of her last five starts and is the logical choice. (8) TALBOTCREEK JEWELY appears to be just a step behind COOK OFF in recent weeks and with the outside post, I'm not sure if she can catch her this week either. She won't provide value, but is an easy option for second. (5) RACING DREAMS was used hard in her most recent outing and will look for a cleaner trip. She's a threat at this level as she's finished in the top three in two of three starts this season, all in this class.
(5) MACH A WISH now has two starts under her belt with solid final quarters and I think she's ready to win. She came from way back last week to finish a hard-closing fourth. I don't think she'll be the post time favourite. (2) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE caught many horseplayers by surprise last week with her impressive victory. I'm not sure she can do it again, but is a good option for the place spot. (1) OCEANVIEW BINDI has been put into the race in recent weeks and it's been paying off. She draws inside and has made the transition so far to take on older mares.
(3) STAYOUTOFMYAFFAIR has enjoyed a terrific season to date and is fresh of a win at Western Fair. She's classified correctly on this circuit and Shepherd's barn has been solid so far this season. (8) MY IDEAL started from the outside last week and went to the front and never looked back en route to victory. She moves up in class, but I expect to see another aggressive steer from Davis Jr. (4) APACH OF LUCK has been consistently finishing top three in her last number of starts. She draws well and is fresh off a good qualifying effort.
(3) P L COOPER was used hard in the opening quarter last week and then enjoyed a two-hole trip, but had to settle for second. He draws inside this week and if he's not used hard again, I like his chances. (9) WORTHY ADVANTAGE lit up the toteboard last start with that impressive win. Auciello's barn was in a bit of a slump, but it has improved over the past few weeks. He doesn't show much gate-speed and will have to overcome post nine. (2) SOLAR KASH finished third in this class last start and I think he can do it again. He draws inside and can be well positioned early in the mile.
(1) LADY LATTE drops out of the Preferred level and gets significant class relief in here. She draws inside and will likely be the post time favourite. (7) GRACIE MONTANA has posted back-to-back wins and scored an impressive win last week with her :27 4/5 final quarter. Look for her late in the mile. (3) MACHET ROCKET has finished in the top three in four of her last five starts. She draws inside, loves to race from behind and that only helps her chances in a short field.
(6) BAROCKEY is the obvious choice in here as she has been tremendous in recent weeks with four-straight wins. She's been scoring open-length wins and doing so on the front end. (2) THE SUMMER WIND has been racing very competitively in this class and hasn't been worse than third in five-straight starts. She comes from O'Sullivan's barn, draws inside and is a major threat in here. (3) TWIN B ELITE draws inside again and I'm looking for the same type of trip from Waples as she's been getting. She uses her gate-speed and gets a good trip without being used too hard.
(7) REAL HOUSEWIFE hasn't won at this level in recent weeks, but she's been within reach. She's been the runner-up in two of her previous starts and I'm hoping for an aggressive drive from Jamieson. (9) KENDRA HANOVER defeated REAL HOUSEWIFE last start with her win, but she draws the outside in here and I'm looking to get her beat. She'll likely be the favourite, but she's beatable. (6) FIORENTINA came first-over last week at Flamboro and finished second. She moves onto this circuit and shows enough speed at other tracks that I think she can be top three. She certainly should offer a price.
(5) SOOO WINDY moves into the O'Sullivan barn fresh off a victory and is at a level where she can win. She raced very well from off-the-pace in her winning effort and Christoforou will likely use the same tactics. (4) AUBSESSION enjoys being put into the race early and that will likely happen from a post four start. She's been providing value lately, but I'm not sure it will happen in here with Jamieson driving once again. (2) ST LADS PEEPER has been finishing third and fourth in this class and I'm hoping for a stronger effort. She draws inside and I'm hoping for a good trip as she usually sprints home with good final quarters.
(4) AMAZING QUEST has put together three-straight wins and is capable of winning in here. He draws well, enjoys being on or near the front and comes from Moreau's barn. (8) CAMPASSER finished second at this level last week and has been racing much better in his last two starts. That will likely continue in here and he may be involved in the race early. (3) LUCKY ENCOUNTER draws inside and has been racing from behind in recent weeks. He can race both ways and is at a level where he's very competitive.
- 1.Posted 05/08/2013 04:00PM
- 2.Posted 05/16/2013 10:55AM
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