01/28/2015 4:14PM

Woodbine Harness: Friday 1/30 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

1,6,7,8 / 2 / 2,4,5 / 2,3,5,10 = $48

MEET STATS: 25 - 73 / $153.90  BEST BETS: 2 - 7 / $13.20  SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 7 / $28.40

Best Bet: DGS PESQUERO (1st)

Spot Play: TOSCA (2nd)

Race 1

(7) DGS PESQUERO took a costly shuffle last week in the Mares Preferred, but missing a check also helped facilitate a drop into this much lower class which she should boss. The only issue might be a very low price. (5) EAT ME UP is a win-shy sort but she showed a bit of grit last week and trainer Moreau has been on a tear, winning 5 dashes Monday night. (1) MACHYNBYRD PRINCESS also drops back into a class where she should share.

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Race 2

(10) TOSCA faced better in a NW 3 after missing a week and wasn't disgraced. As a mare she gets to drop back into a class she has already conquered in her penultimate race on January 8th showing good speed both early and late. The 10-hole sweetens the price; top call. (7) PUREFORM OLYMPIA has been on an incredible roll at Flamboro and is the one to beat. She likely won't get the same front-end respect here and may not be on the lead turning home as she is accustomed to. (3) LOVE DETECTIVE is very consistent and will be in striking range as they turn home as she always is. She's not out of the question for the top spot.

Race 3

(6) MARQUISE DE SARAH was worked over pretty good last week which resulted in the end of her win skein. She can rebound with a more patient drive here and the price may be better. (4) BULLET POINT showed a new dimension rallying from far back for second proving you can teach an old dog new tricks. She likely tries to take them down the road again tonight as has been her custom. (7) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE took advantage of some early battling and blew by her rivals in the 3rd quarter while moving at a 26 3/5 clip. It's unlikely she gets the same setup tonight but she is also obviously very sharp.

Race 4

(7) BACK YARD BABY drops back into the only class she has been competitive in of late. Waples will be sending and hoping to take them all the way or work out a pocket trip; top call. (1) CALL IT COURAGE has been showing the signs the past couple of weeks but needs to get a better start and get moving earlier to threaten for the win. (8) HAT TRICK HONEY has raced okay in this class the past three starts and now switches to Jamieson which could get her over the hump in a race with few contenders. (6) RUB N TUG got stung hard last time and led to the stretch call; she is due for some better luck.

Race 5

(2) EXQUISITE GLIDE missed a week heading into last week's start but that didn't affect him a bit as he trotted a 27 2/5 third quarter to get into contention then eke out a narrow win. He is razor-sharp now and should be good for his third straight. (3) O NARUTAC PERFETTO rode the choice's tail to the lane and just failed to pick him off late; the main danger. (6) ETRUSCAN HANOVER managed to stay flat and dug in late to hold off his main foe. His gait issues make him unreliable but he is an obvious danger.

Race 6

In this mostly weak group, those dropping out of the Snowshoe series look best. Of those, we'll call (4) CONVERSATION BOY on top. He showed life last week in the back half despite finishing 7th and we expect him to make a much earlier move vs. these. (5) CREDIT REFUSAL went a big first-up trip last week falling just short; repeat makes him very tough here. (2) DRAGON WAVE also showed some first-over grit in his last and is another in with a chance.

Race 7

This race looks like a place to go very deep on early pick 4 tickets. That being said we'll try (2) BROADWAY PRINCE on top. His last race was much better than previous efforts and if Henriksen can keep him covered up to the lane he might just end his winless skein. (10) SANTO DOMINGO looks best off his most recent but the 10-hole can be the great equalizer. (3) EL ROCK is a good one to use for a minor share and could even upset if sent for forward position early. (5) MIDFIELD MAGIC can be dangerous if he could ever stay flat and reproduce one of his good qualifying miles.

Race 8

(5) LANESIDE LEXUS showed her class last out and easily dispatched weaker foes. Call to repeat against slightly tougher. (1) TRAUMA UNIT showed further progression and hit the ticket at a big price as expected. She will be coming widest and latest again; one of these times. (7) ROLLTIDEROLL is the big speed danger but Henry likely had his choice here and stuck with the choice.

Race 9

(1) A FEARLESS AFFAIR escapes the classier Artistic Fusion here and looks good from the rail. (3) MEA LILLEY MARK missed a month and used last week as a tightener likely. She knows where the wire is and is the main danger. (5) PERFORMING ART when last seen was leading past the half in the Autumn Series Final. She showed good late speed in her qualifier and looks like a must-use in the late pick 4.

Race 10

(5) YS LOTUS couldn't find anywhere to tuck in early and suffered a brutal overland journey as a result in the Snowshoe Final. That he was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths was kind of amazing really; top call here. (3) PL HEAVENLY had his chances eliminated at the post position draw but did well to get a check. He will be tough in here as long as his gait issues don't resurface. (6) IDEAL SHADOW is one of the Baillargeon brother's few winners so far this meet. He should be right there again. (9) ARRIVED LATE slid up the rail late in the mile Monday night to get the job done. These are a bit tougher and post 9 does him no favors; for a minor share. (1) LETS WAIT AND SEE is another that figures highly in a competitive finale.

 

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