01/10/2013 12:08PM

Woodbine Harness: Friday 1/11 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (1/5 - $3.70): CONTINUAL VELOCITY (8th) 

Spot Play: THREE CHARMS (4th)

Race 1

(2) ERICSKARRI did all the work last week en route to victory from post eight. He draws inside, enjoys getting off-the-gate and has tons of back-class. (4) GUNGA WIN came from behind last week and closed very well to finish second. He finished with a lot of trot at the end of the mile, which I admire. (5) MARTINO comes from the Allard barn and that’s the main reason for my selection. He moves onto this circuit and comes fresh off a win.

Race 2

(5) MC TAYLOR drops again and I expect a much better effort. She was too for back last week, but still closed very well. I expect her to be better positioned in the early going. (2) MACHET ROCKET was a longshot last week and she finished third at a higher class. She draws inside and is certainly a player. (8) JET WASH doesn’t show the best gate speed, but I think Jamieson can position her mid-pack. She hasn’t been racing at her best, but has enough talent to be competitive in here.

Race 3

(6) ILLUSIONSNDREAMS can never be counted out at this level. Don’t expect much value in this short field. (5) HESGOTLEGS appears like he races best when he’s put into the race early and that will likely continue again. He’s been good lately and is once again classified correctly. (3) PAIGING KADABRA had post 10 last week and I’m going to overlook that race line. He won at this level just two starts ago, but this time he may offer a price. I’m looking to capitalize.

Race 4

(3) THREE CHARMS is ready to win and it may come in this class. She was taken back last week and I hope that changes in here. Miss dropped significant time last week and with the right trip, she’s a major contender. (6) HOLIDAY SHOPPER was aggressively driven last week by Brewer and I hope that happens again. She finished a strong second and is at a class where she’s always a threat. (5) RUB N TUG has won at a much higher level in the past and can never be counted out while racing at this bottom level. Don’t expect much value.

Race 5

(2) THE ONLY ONE is the only horse in the field that is moving up in class, but he scored a very impressive win on Dec 31. He draws the same post, faces tougher competition, but certainly has enough speed to win. (7) TEMPTATION BAYAMA had stalling cover in front of him last week. With a tidier trip, he would’ve won. (6) STRATEGY might be the post time favorite with a pair of wins at this level. I’m looking to get him beat. Both wins haven’t been convincing.

Race 6

(8) HARNESSNITENCANADA comes from the Moreau barn and that’s a major reason for my pick. Moreau wouldn’t bring him here unless he thought he could win. He’s been racing very well lately and I’m looking for another strong effort. (9) MCCEDES will likely be put into the race early, which never hurts at Woodbine. If he doesn’t get used too hard, he’ll be a factor turning for home. (7) COOL ROCK doesn’t pace the best on the turns, but exploded in deep stretch last week to win. He’s been assigned post seven and I think he’ll have a tougher trip than last week.

Race 7

(6) COOK OFF has won two straight and continues to improve with each race. She can race from behind or on the front, which is encouraging. (8) INTENSE AMERICA has a ton of class to her, but doesn’t trot the best behind the gate. She likely would have been my top selection had she drawn inside. I fear she will get away too far back. (7) TALBOTCREEK JEWELRY is fresh off a win and may have to drop more time in this contest. She has been racing very well lately and is a major factor in here.

Race 8

(5) CONTINUAL VELOCITY has won two straight and only moves up slightly in class. She faces many of the same rivals again and I expect her to get off-the-gate well once again for Jamieson. (2) OCEANVIEW BINDI was under a comfortable hand-drive from Oliver in her latest start and won as effortlessly as a horse could. She got a great second-over trip and fired home at ease. She faces tougher competition in here, which I think she can handle. (6) ROCA REI has been knocking on the door in this class, while providing great value. With the right trip, she could hit the triactor ticket again.

Race 9

(6) DOCS HOSS went out of the condition class and into the bottom claimer last start and it was the winning move. He made up countless ground and provided a solid payout. He draws better this week, moves up in class, but faces many of the same rivals as his previous start. (7) SILVER DRAGON was hard-used to the quarter last week before settling in the two-hole. He’ll likely fire off-the-gate again and is a major contender in here. (3) ELITE came first-over last week and had to settle for fourth. With a tidier trip, he also can be a major factor in this race.

Race 10

(7) JET SPEED was too far back last week and had to settle for second. If she’s better positioned this week, she’s got a great shot to win. (1) ADDISON BAY finally draws inside and has been very competitive in this class. She’ll likely offer very low value. (3) WHIPPEROSA has found her best stride in recent weeks and that can’t be overlooked. She does jump up in class and I’m looking for value.

Race 11

(6) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE finished second in this class last week after a great two-hole trip. (1) THE SUMMER WIND hasn’t been worse than second in her last three starts and she draws inside. O’Sullivan’s barn hasn’t been at its best lately, but she’s been racing very well and I expect that to continue.  I’m price shopping with (8) SHADYS ACE. She tends to be inconsistent, but with the right trip, she can hit the board; triactor option.

 

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