11/08/2012 12:43PM

Woodbine: Friday 11/9 Analysis

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Best Bet: MODERN CONNECTION (5th)    Spot Play: NOTHINGBUTMACH (11th)

Race 1

(8) DUKE OF DONEGAL couldn't be coming into this race in finer form. With back-to-back wins, he shows good gate speed, which will likely come into play. (7) CAUGHT CHEATIN has been knocking on the door in his last few starts. He's trotting respectable miles and is a contender to be top three. (6) MY FRIEND JUSTIN might be the 'dark horse' in this field. He usually offers value and has been very competitive in his last three starts.

Race 2

(6) MISS MOJO got away too far back last start and I don't think it will happen again. She's a top contender with the right trip. (7) SHADYS M THREE got her first win of the season out of the way last week. She has been very consistent in her last number of starts. She won at this level last week, but I'm not sure she can do it again. (1) SHADYS ACE finally draws inside and I hope she's placed forwardly off the gate.

Race 3

(6) GUNGA WIN has shown much improvement in the past couple of weeks and that will likely continue in here. He drops into a claimer and will likely get a lot of consideration for top prize. (8) SUGAR VALLEY ALLEY was won 11 times this year and at this class last week. I hope his gate-speed gets used. (9) STICK MAN MOE was won three-straight and moves up in class. I think he can hit the triactor or even win.

Race 4

There are a number of horses that could win this race, but I selected (5) VIPER SELECT. His gate speed and recent speedy miles encouraged me to make him my top pick. (8) DRAIN DADDY is a much better horse than he's been showing this season. Maybe this is a race where he can perform as expected. (6) JUST FRED might go off as the favourite, but I'm not convinced he can get the job done.

Race 5

(6) MODERN CONNECTION gets major class relief and should be able to handle this class. She has been racing from behind and I would like to see that change in here. (2) JET SPEED also drops down in class and draws inside. Her best stride comes near the front and I hope McNair uses that. (1) RED SHADOW has proven to be competitive at this level and O'Sullivan's barn as been fantastic this season.

Race 6

(7) JULIANS CAESAR gets class relief and is at a level where he certainly can win.  With Jamieson driving it only increases his chances. (8) VACATION DAY was too far back last week and had to settle for fourth. He doesn't have the best speed off the gate, but with the right trip, he's a big player. (3) PL DALEY found the winner's circle last week and could do it again. He draws inside again for Christoforou.

Race 7

(3) HOLIDAY SHOPPER finished a strong third last week and I think she's ready to win. I think she will be more aggressively driven for Brewer. (2) WINDSONG GRAND AVE had post 10 last start, so I'm going to overlook that race line. She draws inside and as gate speed to be put into the race. She might even offer value. (5) MIBESTKEPTSECRET has been consistent in her last number of starts. She's out of the claiming ranks and is my longshot pick for third.

Race 8

(1) THINK GOLD will likely be other handicappers' top choice as well. He draws inside and has posted two-straight wins. (2) ERICSKARRI is a horse you must have on your triactor/exactor wagers. His back-class alone makes him a top threat at this level. (9) MORK N LINDY has proven to be a top contender at the class. I'm not sure how well he can overcome post nine.

Race 9

(7) GOODBADANDDEUGLY N has won at a much higher level this season and drops down again in class. She's due for a win and comes from a good barn with Jamieson driving. (4) DANCE UNTIL DAWN also gets class relief. She draws inside and I like her chances to be top three. (9) JINGLEJANGLEJINGLE will have to use her gate speed to be a factor. This race is wide-open and could offer a terrific payout.

Race 10

(6) DA VISION OF ART has won seven times this season, the most of any horse in the race. He won at this level two starts ago and once again will likely offer a low price. (4) SMOKEYS LUCK came from off-the-pace to score the win last week. Similar tactics will likely get used again. (2) LIFEOFTHEOLDBOY went a tough trip last start, but draws inside. I think he'll only be better this week.

Race 11

(3) NOTHINGBUTMACH is my longshot pick to win the finale. This race is completely wide-open and he raced very well last week. (10) TOPCORNERTERROR will have to overcome the outside post, but does show enough gate-speed. He also drops down in class. (4) JUSTALITTLELUCK was beat under four-lengths last start and begins from a good post. I'm looking for a large triactor payout.

 

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