11/29/2012 12:05PM

Woodbine: Friday 11/30 Analysis

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$50,000 Guaranteed Pick-4 (races 4-7)

Best Bet: Intense America (5th)   Spot Play: Thatll Be Franny (7th)

Race 1

(8) SUGAR VALLEY ALLEY had to deal with post 10 last week and failed to find the winner’s circle. This is a shorter field and I think he’ll be more forwardly-placed and this time he may offer value. (3) GUNGA WIN offered value last week and did most of the work before fading to third. With an easier trip, I think he can be top three. (6) MARGARITA MAN was the horse that found the wire first, over both SUGAR VALLEY ALLEY and MARGARITA MAN. I’m not sure if he can do it again. The honest fractions benefited him last start.

Race 2

(1) RED SHADOW put forth one of her best efforts of the year last week. She moves up slightly in class, but I don’t feel it’s that much deeper in talent. If she responds with the same effort, she will be tough to beat. (5) COOKING THE BOOKS has proven to be very inconsistent this season, but finished a strong third considering she got interfered with and made a break. (7) MACHLEEN was a different horse last start for the first-time driver Zeron. He immediately put her into the race and if that happens again, I like her chances.

Race 3

(1) QUARTER BAYAMA drops down in class and I think he’ll appreciate that. He also draws post one, which never hurts. With the right trip, he should be able to handle his seven rivals. (6) REHAB MOUNTAIN won at this level last week while offering a terrific return. Cirasuola’s entries have been very competitive on this circuit as of late. (8) POWER SHOT was a longshot last week and finished second. He got off the gate very well and I hope that happens again. It appears he races at his best when he’s near the front.

Race 4

(4) XENIA HANOVER finally draws inside and I think she’ll make the most of it. She’s at a level where she won three starts ago and will offer a low price. (7) GRACIE MONTANA gets class relief and should be a threat at this level. She loves to race from behind and can certainly benefit if the fractions are honest. (3) PRECIOUS CAMMILL has been very inconsistent this season and might be a longshot play for third. She’s due to step up her game and this is not a deep field of mares.

Race 5

(8) INTENSE AMERICA could not find racing room until late in the mile when she exploded in deep stretch to finish second, beaten a nose. Given that effort, she’s my top selection in here. I think she can drop major time this week. (3) FACING JUSTICE won three straight before tasting defeat last week. He’s proven he can compete at this level and I expect a similar, aggressive trip like last start from Oliver. (10) CAUGHT CHEATIN is lightly-raced, but has the ability to overcome the outside post. He closed well last start and I think he can be a major player again.

Race 6

(4) AUBSESSION went a terrific mile in her elimination and I think she’s the horse to beat in this final. She draws a good post and I expect a similar trip from Jamieson. (5) TRAMA UNIT enjoys racing on or near the front and I think Drury will capitalize off a good post. She’s been racing much better in her last few starts. (1) APACH OF LUCK captured the other elimination last week, but went over a second slower than AUBSESSION. She may offer value once again.

Race 7

(5) THATLL BE FRANNY has won at a much higher level on this circuit and with the right trip, I think she can find the winner’s circle. Her nine wins this season shouldn’t be overlooked. (7) MACHS DELICACY will debut for Moreau and that’s the major reason why I picked her for second. His record for first-time starters is very impressive and she likely will step up her game and may offer a price. (10) GOODBADANDDEUGLY N has been racing very competitively at this level, but draws a post 10 start. Perhaps if she had draws inside, she may have been my top pick.

Race 8

(8) OCEANVIEW BINDI has had a solid campaign this season with eight wins. She raced very well and made up a ton of ground in her latest effort to finish second. This is a shorter field and she likes to chase down horses. She will have to step up her game, but I think she can. (4) ST LADS PEEPER was locked in until the final strides last week to finish second. Perhaps if the race went further, she would be the winner. She also moves up in class, but I think she can handle the move. (2) FROWN UPSIDE DOWN doesn’t like to win, but I like her chances of being top three. When she draws inside, she’s a threat.

Race 9

(9) ROCINANTE moves into the claiming ranks and I think he’ll appreciate the lighter competition. He has enough speed and talent to overcome the post nine. (5) DA VISION OF ART has been racing very competitively in this class with a pair of wins in his last four starts. He’s a must have on your exactor/triactor wagers.(6) BARE NECESSITY has back-to-back wins and moves up in class. He’s lightly-raced this season and appears fresh.

Race 10

(4) D GS TINKERBELL drops in class and faces an easier bunch of fillies and mares. She’s the richest horse in the field this season, starts from a good post and likes to track down horses. (6) SMASHBOX has proven to be very competitive at this level. She finished second and third at this level a few starts ago. (2) SWEET HEDGE has hit the board in three of her last four starts. She begins from a good post and Wallace’s barn has been much better as of late.

Race 11

(1) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL looked very well winning last week with an aggressive drive from Oliver. I expect a similar approach from a post one start. She’s the horse to beat. (3) JET SPEED could not catch MONKEY ON MY WHEEL last start and had to settle for second. She continues to improve as the season goes on. (8) MAUREEN ROCKS enjoys racing from off-the-pace and tracking down horses. She begins from post eight and I think she’s certainly a factor.

Race 12

This was a tough race to predict, but I selected (3) SEASCAPE HANOVER. She drops in class, starts from a good spot and should be a threat at this level. (1) ROCK ANN ROLLING draws inside and shows solid final quarter speed. With the correct trip, I think she can provide an upset result while offering value. (4) BRUSHSTROKES continues to offer value and finished third last week at this level. I’m not sure she can win, but is worth a look at to be top three.

 

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