11/21/2012 2:32PM

Woodbine: Friday 11/23 Analysis


Best Bet: GREYSTONE LADYLIKE (1st)   Spot Play: BULLET POINT (8th)

Race 1

(2) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE looks like she's the best in this field on paper. She draws inside and has a career best clocking of 1:51 2/5. The next closest time is 1:55, set by SHADYS M THREE. (4) DRUNK AND DRAMATIC is a perfect eight-for-eight this season. This will be her toughest test of her career as she debuts on this circuit. This is a short field and she enjoys being near the front. (1) SHADYS M THREE enjoys racing from behind and in a short field, that doesn't bother my decision. She's only won one race this season, but enjoys being top three.

Race 2

(3) ERICSKARRI is the obvious choice in this class. He's posted back-to-back wins at this level and has tremendous back-class. (9) COOK OFF did all the work last week before getting tired late. Perhaps with a better trip, he could find the winner's circle, but I like his chances to finish second again. (1) WHIPLASH finally draws inside after two outside post positions. I think he'll be forwardly-placed and into the flow of the race early. At times he offers value and I would take advantage of it.

Race 3

(4) AUBSESSION looks like she's the horse to beat in this field. I'm not sure what happened with her performance on Nov. 1, but if she returns to her old self, I think she's a top contender. (5) TRAMA UNIT has had some time off and got a start under her belt in preparation for this series. She paces in the 1:52 range and that makes her a top threat for exactor and triactor wagers. (7) AMAZING STEP moves onto this circuit after posting nine wins from 11 starts. She likely will be placed forward off the gate, but I'm not sure she can go the distance.

Race 4

(8) COOL ROCK enjoys racing from off-the-pace and shows tremendous final quarter speed. My only concern is getting away too far back off the gate. (7) SMOKEYS LUCK has been hot and cold in his last number of starts, but is coming off a third-place finish in this class with a solid final quarter. (6) PJ LUCKY might be a longshot play for third. He's been pressured off the gate in his last two efforts. I'm hoping for an off-the-pace trip for him to be competitive.

Race 5

(2) ADDISON BAY wasn't at her best last week in this class, but I feel this is a lighter group. The last time she drew post two, she found the winner's circle. (4) SWEET HEDGE has been very competitive at a higher level in the past. Last start she was too far back and couldn't catch the leader. I can't see that happening again. (7) LETS GO GET EM has shown glimpses of being inconsistent, but she's at the same class she finished second at last week. She's certainly worth a look at to be top three.

Race 6

(7) NATURAL INSTINCT made a dirty break in stride at the three-quarter pole last start. McNair returns to the bike, so I'm going to overlook the mishap. She looks like the horse to beat on paper. (6) COOKING THE BOOKS has banked over $200,000 this season while racing in the Ontario Sires Stakes Gold series. She has been very inconsistent this season, but this may be the easiest group of horses she has faced all season. (1) MACHLEEN was making up countless ground last week. If she's placed closer from the start than she's a terrific play to be top three. She could even win.\

Race 7

(2) WARK WOMAN does move up in class, but she scored two convincing wins leading up to this race. I think she's ready for the jump in class and enjoys another good post to work with. (10) DUKE OF DONEGAL remains at the same class that he's finished second at in his last two starts. Perhaps if he drew inside he would be my top selection.  (6) TALE TO TELL is a tough horse to handicap for me because he shows enough speed, but sometimes doesn't finish top three. I do like his chances in here with a good post. You will likely get value on him.

Race 8

(7) BULLET POINT is a play I'm considering to be a chancy wager. She hasn't raced in a while and is facing a deep enough group of mares. Her final quarter in her qualifying effort leads me to believe that she's ready for the task. I'm curious to see what type of value she will offer. (6) ROCA REI got a good trip last week to finish second. In this short field, the same trip could come into play. (2) GOODBADANDDEUGLY N has hit the board in her last two starts. She can race from behind or near the front which only increases her chances.

Race 9

(1) INTENSE AMERICA has only had three starts in two years, but raced against North America's best as a rookie. She posted a terrific qualifying effort with an impressive final quarter. If she's back to her old self, I think she will be an easy winner. (8) MY FRIEND JUSTIN has been very consistent in his last number of starts. He has been the post time favourite in his last two starts before tasting defeat. I don't think he'll be the favourite this week with INTENSE AMERICA in here. (10) REAL HOUSEWIFE scored an impressive win last start by three lengths. The last time she had post 10, she finished third.

Race 10

(2) TEA PARTY PRINCESS had no luck in the Forest City Pace at London and returns to face a lighter group of aged mares. She begins from a good post and can dictate her own trip. (4) CONTINUAL VELOCITY, like TEA PARTY PRINCESS, had no luck in London and should be competitive in this field. She hasn't won in quite some time, but has been hitting the board. (1) MAUREEN ROCKS has been much better her last three starts and I expect that to continue in here. She has a good post and enjoys racing from behind. I hope she doesn't get away too far back for Christoforou.

Race 11

(7) SAM SWIFTY might offer lower value than she did last week. She made up a ton of ground last week in this same class. This will be the fourth week in-a-row that she begins from post seven. (6) WINDSONG GRAND AVE benefited from a two-hole trip last week and stayed for second. Like last week, this is not a deep group of horses and she should be a contender. (5) ST LADS PEEPER set a new career best last start after enjoying a pocket trip. With another trip like that, she's certainly worth a look.

Race 12

(4) ARDOR LOCKE got the trip she needed to find the winner's circle at the same class last week. She starts from a better post and will likely be forwardly-placed again from MacDonald. (7) ROCK ANN ROLLING came from far back last week to finish a hard-closing third. She offered minimal value last week and that will likely occur again. (8) XENIA HANOVER went a tough trip last week and faded down the stretch. With a cleaner trip, she's certainly competitive in this field. Lalonde's barn has been very good rece

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