11/02/2012 12:18PM

Woodbine: Friday 11/2 Analysis


Best Bet: MAJESTIC TAGLET (3rd)  Spot Play: ICEY BREEZE (12th)

Race 1

(7) SUGAR VALLEY ALLEY has been very close to winning in his last two efforts and has 10 wins to his name on the season. A short field only helps his chances. (5) RATE EXCHANGE trotted a respectable mile last week at this level. He’s due to jump up and be top three. (6) QUARTER BAYAMA is always entered into a class where he is most competitive. I wouldn’t count him out from post six.

Race 2

(9) PLAY AT WYNN won at this level three starts ago then began to tail off. She raced from behind last week and I think that might change in here. She races best when she’s near or on the front. (7) GRACIE MONTANA loves to track horses down and usually offers value. She raced terrific last week to finish third at this same level. (3) MIBESTKEPTSECRET might be a longshot to some players, but I’m going to take a chance and slot her in for third. She draws inside and always offers value. This is a wide-open race.

Race 3

(8) MAJESTIC TAGLET has won four straight at Woodbine, but this will be her toughest task on this circuit. I still think she can win, but will have to step up to do so. (1) DAYLON MIRACLE is prepping for the Super Final on Nov. 10 and shows terrific gate-speed. I hope she gets away near the front, close to MAJESTIC TAGLET. (4) LEXUS HELIOS has just shy of $150,000 banked this season, so you cannot count her out. If they go quick speed on the front, she’s the horse that can pick up the pieces late in the mile.

Race 4

(4) MC TAYLOR has come up short her last two starts, but she’s down in class and ready for a win. She will likely go off as the favourite. (8) ADDISON BAY couldn’t be coming into this race any better with two consecutive wins. She will offer low value and certainly can win at this level. (7) SHADYS ACE closed very well last start to finish second. She will likely offer a price and is worth a shot.

Race 5

(7) COLD CERTIFIED has had a very good 2012 season and will gear up for the Super Final on Nov 10. He should be able to handle this group. He’ll start on lasix for the first time and I hope he’s aggressively driven. (5) KEYSTONE ORION might be the ‘black horse’ in this field with only one victory on the season. He has the speed and talent to be a top threat in here, especially if they go quick speed on the front. (9) ILL BE THERE trotted a very good mile last week to finish third. I hope he can overcome his lack of gate-speed.

Race 6

(3) GOODBADANDDEUGLY N is the richest horse in the field this season and is at a level where she can win. She hasn’t been at her best in her last five starts, so I’m looking for a rebound effort. (1) BOUND TO ROCK had post 10 last week and I’m going to overlook that raceline. She draws the rail and will likely be forwardly placed. (8) WARRAWEE LIMELIGHT has been knocking on the door and racing consistently at the Woodbine oval lately. I hope that continues in here. 

Race 7

(6) LIFEOFTHEOLDBOY did not post the most impressive qualifier, but Moreau always has his horses in top form coming to race. He won at this level numerous times before and can certainly do it again. (7) DA VISION ART won at this class last week over a good track. I’m not certain he can do it again, but should hit the board. (8) COLE DIDDY is a classy veteran and it seems Auciello has the secret to success with him. He’s been very good since entering his barn again.

Race 8

(1) UNCOMMON NIGHT scored a comfortable win last start and moves up in class, which I think she can handle. She’s finding her best stride late in the season. (6) TOUGH MAC posted his only win of the season last week and returns to the same level. I’m looking the same type of effort. (8) ANGIES LUCKY STAR hasn’t won since August 17, but hasn’t missed the top three since. This will be her prep race for the Super Finals.

Race 9

(2) VOELZ HANOVER will likely be the post time favourite or offer low value. Her sub-1:50 effort last week makes her a top threat to win in here. She loves to be close to the action, which only helps her chances from post two. (4) WAASMULA didn’t put in her best effort last week, but I think she can rebound. This is a lighter Preferred class this week. (8) MAUREEN ROCKS might offer value. Her closing speed attracts me to her, especially if they go quick speed on the front end.

Race 10

(5) MORK N LINDY has won two consecutive races and stays at the same level as last week. Baillargeon is putting this horse in where he can win again. (4) WHIPLASH closed very well from post 10 last week. He didn’t get used very much in that mile and I think that makes him that much better this week. (8) ERICSKARRI is a classy veteran and returns to a level where he won at three starts ago.

Race 11

(4) MEMUMSNOTNICE moves into the Fellows barn and might offer a price. This isn’t the toughest field and I think she can be a big player. (1) CLASSY LANE ROSE has raced much better towards the end of this year than the beginning. I hope she uses her gate-speed from post one. (3)MACHLEEN is very consistent this season and should be a top threat at this level. I wouldn’t count her out.

Race 12

(3) ICEY BREEZE is my longshot pick of the night. She raced terrific two starts ago before making an uncharacteristic break last week. I’m going to take a chance. (9) KEYSTONE JUBILEE finished second at this level last week, but will have to overcome post nine. (2) SIGNAL draws inside and when she isn’t roughed up, proves she can be competitive at this level. This class is very tough to predict.