11/14/2012 4:59PM

Woodbine: Friday 11/16 Analysis

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Best Bet: NATURAL INSTINCT (10th)    Spot Play: BRUSHSTROKES (7th)

Race 1

(6) SUGAR VALLEY ALLEY is the obvious choice after winning two-straight in this class. It's a short field, so off-the-pace or front-end tactics are not an issue to me. (2) GUNGA WIN finished second last week after doing most of the work on the front. He draws inside and will offer low value. (4) QUARTER BAYAMA has raced very well at this level. He comes out of the Moreau barn, which has a very cold throughout the month of November, a very uncharacteristic stat.

Race 2

(7) COOL ROCK was making up countless ground in deep stretch before running out of racetrack to finish second. In a short field like this, I feel this race will set up perfectly for him. (2) DA VISION OF ART enjoys using front-end tactics and that will likely occur again. He's won two of his last three starts, that shouldn't be overlooked. (5) PL EARL has proven to be very competitive at this level when you look at his racelines. He's classified right and I expect a similar effort.

Race 3

(5) MY FRIEND JUSTIN may or may not go off as the post time favourite, but I think he's worth a shot. He's been very competitive in this class and it's a weaker group of horses than he's faced. (9) NOBLE WARRAWEE should offer value, but Steacy always has his horses in top form and I think he can be top three in here. My only concern is his lack of gate-speed. (4) MERRY MAIDEN moves into the Parson barn as previous trainer Paul Reid headed to Florida for the winter months. She enjoys being near the front and I hope that continues.

Race 4

(6) PALM PATROL moves out of the claiming ranks once again and I think she can make a winning move this time. She won comfortably last week by open lengths and with a repeat effort, she will be tough to beat. (3) MACHLEEN faces an easier group than last week, while finishing third. She should be very competitive in here. (5) MEMUMSNOTNICE scored the win last week for Fellows and should be top three in here. She won at this level last week and will offer a low price.

Race 5

(8) ERICSKARRI is one of the veterans of this field and his back-class cannot be overlooked. He captured the win last week at this level and he remains in the same class. (4) REHAB MOUNTAIN has been top three in four of his last five starts. Other than last week, he's offered terrific value. (9) WHIPLASH also has been known to offer a price and that may continue. He's proven to be a contender in this class. His only downfall is his lack of gate-speed.

Race 6

(7) ADDISON BAY got picked off late last week and had to settle for second, beaten a neck. I think she's the best horse in the race, so I will put her on top. (9) SWEET HEDGE has been the runner-up in both her last appearances. She has the ability to leave the gate or race from behind. She enjoys being top three, but not winning. (4) RED SHADOW drops down in class, but hasn't been at her best recently. With the class relief, she should be a contender for top spot.

Race 7

(6) BRUSHSTROKES is going to be longshot play of the night. Crone privately purchased the mare recently from Montini and continues to improve with each start. Last week, she made up countless ground from tenth to finish fourth. She has a better post and I'm hoping for a better trip. (10) XENIA HANOVER was a horse I did not give much respect and I was proven wrong. She offered low odds for trainer Lalonde and found the winner's circle. I think she's a contender, but I'm putting her for second from a post 10 start. (8) ARDOR LOCKE was put into the race early last week and that is not her best stride. She drops in class and I'm hoping for a large triactor payout.

Race 8

(3) BOUND TO ROCK went a tough trip last week and faded to fourth in deep stretch. She draws inside this week and with a cleaner trip, she's a top play. (5) ON THE CUSP may offer value, but she was well in-hand winning at Georgian Downs in her last start. She was won at a much higher level and should be a threat in here. (1) DANCE UNTIL DAWN does not like to win in the past two years, but with the rail, I feel she can hit the board.

Race 9

(6) ONE MORE GINNY was absolutely flying late in the mile to finish second in the Super Final. He came from far back and if he puts in a repeat effort, I think he'll be very tough to beat. (2) CAUGHT CHEATIN scored the win at this level last week with a good final quarter. His gate-speed is a good attribute to have from post two. He'll likely be the favourite, but I'm going to try and get him beat. (5) DUKE OF DONEGAL has been racing very well in his last three starts. He's a 'must have' in your triactor wagers.

Race 10

(8) NATURAL INSTINCT is my best bet of the night. She has been nothing short of spectacular this season and with recently new trainer O'Sullivan, that should continue. She's the horse to beat. (6) GOODBADANDDEUGLY N was put into the race last week and raced well to finish second. It was a good rebound effort and I'm looking for that to continue. (3) BORN THREE found the winner's circle last week and races a weaker group of horses, in my opinion. She offered value last week and it could happen again.

Race 11

(7) ELITE has been racing very well for Fellows and has proven to be competitive in this class. This level of horses is usually tough to predict. (8) PJ LUCKY scored a new lifetime best last week and now moves up in class. He went a tough trip from post 10 and faces some of the same horses in here. (3) COLE DIDDY tried to clear to the front last week, but failed to reach PJ LUCKY.  I hope he's forwardly placed again.

 

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