10/18/2012 11:51AM

Woodbine: Friday 10/19 Analysis

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Best Bet: APPRENTICE HANOVER (4th)     Spot Play: ST LADS PEPPER (6th)

Race 1

(2) SHADYS M THREE hasn't won a race this season, but has been performing consistently at this level. I'm curious to see what value you get on her. (6) SHADYS ACE hasn't raced very well on this circuit, but last week she had a bad post and showed a good final quarter. I'm looking for a payout. (9) PHEONIX SEELSTER will likely be positioned near the front in the early going. She has enough speed and talent to belong in this field.

Race 2

What needs to be said about (4) CAPTAINTREACHEROUS during his stellar 2012 rookie campaign? He's clearly the horse to beat and couldn't be coming into the Breeders Crown any better. (2) VEGAS VACATION was conservatively driven last week, but was flying at the end of the mile. He's had some time off, but he's got a good start under his belt heading into the Crown. (7) ROCKIN AMADEUS has been getting better as the year has progressed. He's certainly a threat to hit the board.

Race 3

(8) L DEES LIONESS could have taken the bye and advanced to the final, but the connections elected to race. She didn't go to Lexington and after her win last week, she's ready. (10) NIKKI BEACH got outsprinted in Lexington in deep stretch to finish second. She continues to get better as the season goes on. She'll have to use her gate speed to overcome post 10. (4) HIT THE CURB might be a longshot play to some, but I'm going to try her. Her win in Lexington was terrific and she continues to drop major time.

Race 4

(5) APPRENTICE HANOVER looks like he's back to his old self with a victory in Lexington. He's the horse to beat and will be the post time favorite.  (4) FOOL ME ONCE has posted two straight wins and it appears Pierce has the key to success with this youngster. (7) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE continues to surprise me and it looks like he's fresh. He looked good winning last week.

Race 5

Although (8) WHEELING N DEALIN hasn't raced since Sept. 15, he's schooled behind the gate three times according to Dustin Jones. He's undefeated this season and is the horse to beat. (5) FASHION BLIZZARD hasn't missed the board yet this season from 10 starts including five wins. You can't overlook that statistic. (7) ROYALTY FOR LIFE went a terrific winning mile in Lexington and dropped major time. He appreciates the big track and I think he'll enjoy the Woodbine oval.

Race 6

(4) ST LADS PEEPER gets class relief and always shows fast final quarters. If she's in the hunt at the top of the stretch, I feel she has a great shot to win. (8) ICEY BREEZE showed a gutsy effort last week after battling in deep stretch to get picked off by a nose. (5) DEVIN PULSE is usually a longshot, but I'm going to try her in here. I'm hoping for an off-the-pace trip.

Race 7

(5) WARRAWEE KOINE is a very classy mare and she gets class relief in here. I think she can capitalize off that. She raced very well last week and gets a good post. (1) MC TAYLOR is moving up in class and might seem like a longshot pick, but she came a very long way to win her last start. Now, she was been blessed with post one. (6) SMASHBOX did all the work last week and got picked off late. She's should be very competitive at this level.

Race 8

(5) KRISPY APPLE automatically advances to the Breeders Crown final and faces a lighter field, which she should be able to handle. If she can't win in here, then she can't win the Crown. (2) TEA PARTY PRINCESS continues to be knocking on the door at this level and always comes home very strong. (7) MAUREEN ROCKS drops down in class and usually comes from off-the-pace. Post seven doesn't bother me with her.

Race 9

(5) PUT ON A SHOW will be facing the boys in the Breeders Crown for the first time in history. It's safe to say that if she can't win in here than she can't beat the boys. If there is one mare that is capable of doing it, it's her. I'm looking for an aggressive steer from Jamieson to ensure that she's ready. (1) ANNDROVETTE will likely offer low value, but there isn't a mare in this field that can out-leave her. Tetrick loves to make speed with her and she has the rail. (10) ROCKLAMATION provided a major upset in the Milton final two starts back and she's capable of doing it again.

Race 10

(9) SMOKEYS LUCK has won nearly 30 percent of her starts this season and is coming off a victory. That's a big statistic and for a terrific conditioner. (3) COOL ROCK has posted his only two wins of the season in his last two starts. He's blooming late in the year. (7) SHIFTIN GEARTOGEAR looks like he's back to his old self for Auciello. He enjoys being near the front and that's never a bad thing at Woodbine.

Race 11

(2) HOPE FOR PADDY raced very well to finish fourth in her latest Gold final start at Rideau. She's found the winner's circle 10 times thus far this season and is certainly capable of winning in here. (3) RED SHADOW has shown that she's inconsistent at times this season, but comes from a hot barn and gets a good post. (6) COOKING THE BOOKS has the potential to find the winner's circle. She's the richest horse of the field this season.

Race 12

(5) THREE CHARMS gets class relief, has won at a much higher level in the past and is overdue for a win. (9) ALL TUCKED UP also drops down in class. Her lack of gate speed might be a factor. (6) EXQUISITE ALBERTA made an uncharacteristic miscue last week, but has proven that she's competitive at this level.

 

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