10/10/2012 3:29PM

Woodbine: Friday 10/12 Analysis

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Best Bet: L DEES LIONESS (10th)    Spot Play: ABBEY ROAD HANOVER (12th)

Race 1

(9) STICK MAN MOE is coming off two straight wins at Georgian Downs and Moreau always has his horses ready. He’s finding his best stride as of late and I wouldn’t count him out. (3) GUILFORD has had a credible 2012 campaign and makes the move to this circuit. I think he’ll appreciate the bigger surface. (5) SUNDOWNER BOB has been knocking on the door as of late at Vernon Downs and is a good option for your triactor ticket.

Race 2

(8) BAD BOY HILL is winless this season from eight starts, but had competed in the Gold series and will face an easier bunch in here. (4) LYONSPARKHAVENLAKE put in a solid performance last week and with another repeat effort, I think he can hit the board. (5) COMICBOOK HERO is coming off a dominating win at Kawartha Downs. He hasn’t shown that he can win at this level on this circuit, but that could change.

Race 3

(7) HESGOTLEGS continues to win on this circuit and his last two starts offered minimal value. He’s won from post 10 and has been assigned post seven in this field. He’s the logical choice. (3) QUARTER BAYAMA suffered a first-over trip last week to finish fourth. If he gets a cleaner trip, he’s right there for trainer Moreau. (9) PAIGING KADABRA drops into a claimer after a pair of solid performances. He doesn’t show terrific gate-speed, which may be his downfall.

Race 4

(7) MISS LAUREN will look for a winning effort before going into her Breeders Crown elimination next Saturday. She’s clearly the horse to beat. (3) RED SHADOW has shown inconsistentcy this season, but does show flashes of solid final quarters. She’s got a good post for top trainer O’Sullivan. (4) YOUR BEAUTIFUL is a horse that you may get value on and I’m going to play her for third. She’s due to step up her performance.

Race 5

(6) DREAMFAIR ETERNAL drops down in class yet again and should be able to handle this field. It appears that she’s slowing down a little at age eight, but should still find the winner’s circle in here. (10) MYLUVMYLIFE gets the outside post and is due to come up with a solid performance. She’s a much better horse than she’s been showing. (9) SMASHBOX continues to race well over the past three weeks. This is a comfortable class for her and she should once again be a factor.

Race 6

(5) COUNT SPEED was terrific last week for MacDonell and I’m looking for a repeat effort. He’s stepping up in class, but I think he can handle the challenge. (9) BAVARDE make a break in stride last start, but certainly has the speed and talent to find the winner’s circle. She may be the post time favorite. (7) SOPRANO HANOVER won at this level last start and is certainly capable of doing it again. She has really stepped up her game as of late.

Race 7

(3) JINGLEJANGLEJINGLE is usually a threat when put into play early. I hope that happens here from post two. She’s won at this level before. (2) HAT TRICK HONEY has gone off at long odds in her last two starts and I’m going to give her the benefit of the doubt this week. She’s really found her best stride and begins from a good post. (10) BOUND TO ROCK has consistently been knocking on the door and I expect that to continue again from the outside post 10.

Race 8

(4) MACH MY WORD is a big, strong horse and enjoys being put into the race. Woodbine is a front-end favoring track and that should suit him just fine. He’s won seven times this year, more than any of his rivals this season. (8) CAMPASSER has shown that he’s rather inconsistent, but if they go quick fractions up front, he’s a horse that could benefit from that. (7) PL EARL also has been inconsistent this year, but this is a light field and may offer longshot value.

Race 9

(10) PL FANTASSTIC will likely be a lot of handicapper’s top selection in here. He won at this level last start by over four-lengths. (3) SOMEBODY AS also won at this level last start. He’s got a better post to work with and both can get off the gate quickly. (5) CIMERONKEN is a longshot play for me. He can get off the gate quickest off all and tracks horses well. If you get value on him, he’s a good selection, in my opinion.

Race 10

(4) L DEES LIONESS will be the heavy favorite in here in preparation for her Breeders Crown elimination next Saturday. She has been a top filly this year on the Grand Circuit and should be able to handle this field. (7) TROPICAL BREEZE got tired late in the mile last week, but is a better filly than her mile indicates. She’s had a solid 2012 campaign, which includes 10 wins on the season. (8) AUBSESSION certainly caught me by surprise last week. I’m looking for a repeat effort.

Race 11

(3) PROFESSORSDAPAPERS is at a level where he is always competitive. If he gets a clean trip, he’s a top contender in this field. (6) SF TERRIFIC KISSER makes the debut for new trainer Polifroni and I think he can handle the jump in class. (2) LIBERTYS BEST STAR finished third last week at this level and draws a better post. He’s really been on his game in his last six starts.

Race 12

This class is always very tough to handicap, but I selected (8) ABBEY ROAD HANOVER based on her yet again dropping in class. She’s a better filly than her lines indicate and has a top trainer in O’Sullivan. (3) WARRAWEE LIMELIGHT hasn’t been on her game lately, but she drops in class again. I’m looking for her to turn things around. (1) ROCK ANN ROLLING has been very inconsistent and I’m looking for value on her.

 

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