04/04/2013 1:48PM

Weekend Warrior for April 6, 2013: Picks for Bay Shore, Potrero Grande, Ashland

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Shigeki Kikkawa
Salutos Amigos has only this maiden sprint win to his credit but has an upset chance in the Bay Shore.

NEW YORK – The long road to the Kentucky Derby is nearing the end as two more major final Derby preps – the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby – will be checked off the list Saturday. The Grade 1, $1 million Wood Memorial tops a card at Aqueduct that includes four other graded stakes, the biggest being the Grade 1, $400,000 Carter Handicap. The Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby heads a card that includes three other graded events, the most notable being the Grade 1, $300,000 Santa Anita Oaks. This is also the first Saturday of the Keeneland spring meet, and the feature there is the Grade 1, $500,000 Central Bank Ashland Stakes.

Bay Shore Stakes

This is one of the undercard stakes at Aqueduct, and I would think that Clearly Now and Honorable Dillon, winner of the two big 3-year-old sprint stakes over the winter at Gulfstream, will have plenty of support here. Clearly Now was a distant third in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start this year when Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby ran huge finishing one-two. But when he cut back to this seven-furlong distance last time out in the Swale Stakes, Clearly Now came from off the pace into fractions that look slow on paper but were actually legitimate compared to the other sprints that day, and won going away.

Honorable Dillon comes off an unsuccessful attempt around two turns in the Tampa Bay Derby, in which he was up against Verrazano, odds-on favorite in the Wood Memorial and future-book favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Honorable Dillon will appreciate the cut back to seven furlongs Saturday, the distance at which he prevailed in the Hutcheson Stakes two starts back.

Gulfstream form must certainly be respected at Aqueduct this time of year, and it would be no surprise if either Clearly Now or Honorable Dillon won this race. That said, I question how strong the Hutcheson and Swale really were, so in this instance I’m leaning against the Florida shippers.

Maleeh is meeting a tougher group than the one he beat in the Fred Capossela Stakes last time out to make it 2 for 2 in his career. Maleeh is dangerous because he obviously has lots of room for improvement, and he projects to sit the same inside pocket trip he got in the Capossela. But I like the California shipper, Salutos Amigos.

Salutos Amigos was an outsider when he ran in the San Felipe most recently, which was understandable considering he was stepping up off only a maiden sprint win, but his performance was actually quite creditable. He sped off early to set a fast opening quarter-mile, stayed close as the pace remained strong through six furlongs, and was still third in mid-stretch before tiring late. Before that, Salutos Amigos competed in a couple of hot maiden races at Santa Anita. In the first of those, he was beaten only a length for second off a seven-month layoff by Govenor Charlie, who came back to win his next two starts, including the Sunland Derby with a 95 Beyer Figure. Salutos Amigos was much the best winning his second Santa Anita start, a performance that was flattered when soundly beaten runner up Zee Bros came back to win his next start with a 102 Beyer. I like the cut back from a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race to a seven-furlong sprint that Salutos Amigos is making, and I expect him to sit a good trip stalking from close range.

[WOOD MEMORIAL: Get Aqueduct PPs, watch video previews]

As for the Wood, Verrazano should win at somewhere around 2-5. It was impossible not to be impressed with how he conceded the early lead and his overall professionalism in the Tampa Bay Derby. But I will be watching Normandy Invasion closely, if only to see if the Remsen he just missed in last fall really was the mirage subsequent form suggests it might have been.

Potrero Grande Stakes

Jimmy Creed and Comma to the Top are obvious win candidates, but it is fair to question what we will get from them Saturday in this undercard event at Santa Anita. This will be Jimmy Creed’s first start in more than three months, whereas Comma to the Top’s recent schedule has been extremely demanding. After engaging in a wicked speed duel in the San Carlos, Comma to the Top shipped across country, ran in the Tom Fool one week later, and came again to narrowly prevail after appearing beaten late. How much can be in his tank right now?

I’m taking a shot with Camp Victory, who is repeating the pattern of a loss in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and then a comeback in the Potrero Grande that he used at this time last year. And though Camp Victory finished third in last year’s Potrero Grande, a repeat of that performance might be good enough this year. That is because last year he finished behind Amazombie, who was the defending male sprint champion and who was still in sharp form then, and Roman Threat, who came back to win the Los Angeles Handicap with a 107 Beyer. In any case, Camp Victory sports an excellent string of recent works for his return.

[SANTA ANITA DERBY: Get PPs, watch Saturday's full card live]

I agonized a long time over the Santa Anita Derby. I was first inclined to go against Hear the Ghost because he got a great setup when he won the San Felipe, and Flashback, because he hasn’t shown any forward Beyer movement. I still don’t have a strong opinion on the race, but I would take Hear the Ghost because he should still get at least a good pace to rally into.

Ashland Stakes

This is a wild betting race. I’m against Emollient. Although the fact she’s running back in a week says we should dismiss her flop in the Gulfstream Oaks, running back in a week is a move that’s worked for trainer Bill Mott only twice in the last five years, and both were with claimers. I also think Private Ensign’s Gulfstream form looks better on paper than it really was, and I’m not taken with the group than ran in the Alcibiades last fall.

I’m going with Kitten’s Point, who has improved since getting Lasix. Yes, Kitten’s Point won the Herecomesthebride most recently after being close to a slow pace. But I believe she’s better as a closer, a style she can revert to here, and she won her debut on a synthetic track.

Jd Staton More than 1 year ago
all the talk about flashbacks new jock and new game plan to come off the pace. i cant wait to see if its possible. i dont think tapit babies are closers they all seem to run up front. flash back reminds me of hanson last year
Sam More than 1 year ago
how about freebie PPs for the SA Derby??
Charles Sakach More than 1 year ago
http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm
John More than 1 year ago
Salutos Amigo's and he is gone ! Speed Speed Speed !.................and, watch Baffert shake them up with Power Broker and Super Ninety Nine on the board somewhere............................
Ray Palagano More than 1 year ago
very possible John. Salutos race in San Felipe was better than it might seem o n paper.
Thomas Cook More than 1 year ago
Flashback. Maleeh w Honorable Dillon. Freedom Child, Normandy Invasion, Mr.Palmer. Private Ensign.....Next week Palice Malice and Dewey Square
Charles Sakach More than 1 year ago
FPS for the SA Derby The numbers in parentheses represent the number of furlongs corresponding to the race segment. This is followed by the average speed in feet-per-second (FPS) minus 44 FPS; this is basically the average speed in-between the points of call. The numbers encapsulated with pipe characters ("|") represent an estimated speed in complete FPS at the exact point in the race; therefore the last number is the estimated speed at wire. The "total" is just the number of furlongs multiplied by the corresponding average speed and summed. All FPS are adjusted for track variant. This is done by reverse-engineering the final time where the 100 point score was awarded and comparing to a standard "parallel time" chart. Flashback: Last: (2) 11.9 |56.4|, (2) 12.7 |56.9|, (2) 9.7 |50.6|, (2.5) 6.0 |49.5| Total: 83.7 Prev: (2) 9.7 |53.0|, (2) 8.6 |52.2|, (2) 11.3 |58.4|, (2.5) 8.7 |47.0| Total: 80.9 Hear the Ghost: (scratched) Last: (2) 11.6 |55.6|, (2) 11.5 |55.5|, (2) 9.4 |51.3|, (2.5) 7.5 |51.7| Total: 83.8 Prev: (2) 14.7 |57.7|, (2) 13.2 |56.7|, (1) 8.4 |48.2|, (1) 8.9 |57.7| Total: 73.2 Power Broker: Last: (2) 12.4 |57.0|, (2) 13.3 |57.6|, (2) 8.8 |47.9|, (2.5) 3.9 |47.8| Total: 78.7 Prev: (2) 12.7 |54.9|, (2) 10.0 |53.1|, (2) 9.0 |52.8|, (2.5) 7.7 |50.6| Total: 82.7 Tiz a Minister: Last: (2) 6.9 |54.0|, (2) 11.5 |57.0|, (2) 10.5 |52.0|, (2.5) 9.6 |55.3| Total: 81.9 Prev: (2) 7.9 |53.5|, (2) 10.3 |55.1|, (2) 12.0 |56.8|, (2) 9.9 |50.9| Total: 80.2 Goldencents: Last: (2) 11.9 |56.5|, (2) 12.7 |57.0|, (2) 9.9 |50.7|, (2.5) 5.5 |48.2| Total: 82.7 Prev: (2) 11.8 |55.8|, (2) 11.9 |55.9|, (2) 10.5 |53.0|, (2) 5.6 |46.1| Total: 79.3 Super Ninety Nine: Last: (2) 12.6 |56.1|, (2) 11.9 |55.6|, (2) 8.8 |49.9|, (2.5) 5.1 |48.3| Total: 79.3 Prev: (2) 13.0 |55.5|, (2) 10.8 |54.1|, (2) 9.5 |52.9|, (2.5) 7.0 |49.2| Total: 84.2 Summer Exclusive: Last: (2) 15.2 |58.2|, (2) 13.7 |57.2|, (2) 8.0 |46.8|, (0.5) 4.2 |49.6| Total: 76.0 Storm Fighter: Last: (2) 11.3 |55.2|, (2) 11.2 |55.1|, (2) 8.9 |50.7|, (2.5) 7.1 |51.5| Total: 80.4 Prev: (2) 15.0 |57.8|, (2) 13.1 |56.4|, (1) 9.0 |49.5|, (1) 7.2 |52.9| Total: 72.6 Dirty Swag: Last: (2) 11.5 |55.5|, (2) 11.6 |55.6|, (2) 8.2 |48.8|, (2) 0.1 |39.4| Total: 62.7 Prev: (2) 10.4 |56.3|, (2) 13.2 |58.1|, (2) 8.5 |46.8|, (2.5) 4.1 |49.5| Total: 74.4 Analysis: I included the Ghost's numbers for the curious. There will be a pace battle looming and I have my doubts about Flashback. Goldencents is scary, because if you look at his last race strictly as a tightener for today, if he could rate he could win. Don't forget this is 9 furlongs, not 8.5; these guys have to run the whole distance. Tiz a Minister was rolling with the Ghost in last and would have beat Flashback easily for 2nd with an extra 110 yards. Don't count out Gary Stevens on Storm Fighter; has some interesting works going into this and he looks about as good as any.
Charles Sakach More than 1 year ago
FPS for the Wood Memorial The numbers in parentheses represent the number of furlongs corresponding to the race segment. This is followed by the average speed in feet-per-second (FPS) minus 44 FPS; this is basically the average speed in-between the points of call. The numbers encapsulated with pipe characters ("|") represent an estimated speed in complete FPS at the exact point in the race; therefore the last number is the estimated speed at wire. The "total" is just the number of furlongs multiplied by the corresponding average speed and summed. All FPS are adjusted for track variant. This is done by reverse-engineering the final time where the 100 point score was awarded and comparing to a standard "parallel time" chart. Chrisandthecapper: Last: (2) 12.1 |56.8|, (2) 13.1 |57.5|, (1) 10.8 |52.1|, (1) 10.6 |57.1| Total: 71.8 Prev: (2) 16.5 |58.3|, (2) 13.2 |56.2|, (1) 7.7 |47.3|, (1) 4.1 |48.8| Total: 71.2 Normandy Invasion: Last: (2) 8.4 |53.7|, (2) 10.3 |54.9|, (2) 10.0 |53.0|, (2.5) 9.6 |54.2| Total: 81.5 Prev: (4) 9.2 |53.7|, (2) 10.0 |54.3|, (2) 10.5 |54.6|, (1) 8.7 |50.8| Total: 86.3 Quinzieme Monarque: Last: (4) 5.5 |52.4|, (2) 9.9 |55.3|, (2) 11.4 |55.4|, (1) 12.4 |57.5| Total: 76.7 Prev: (4) 8.8 |53.6|, (2) 10.0 |54.4|, (2) 8.1 |49.8|, (1) 3.7 |45.5| Total: 75.3 Elnaawi: Last: (2) 9.6 |53.1|, (2) 8.8 |52.6|, (2) 10.9 |57.2|, (2.5) 9.0 |48.9| Total: 81.0 Prev: (2) 13.1 |56.7|, (2) 12.6 |56.4|, (2) 5.9 |43.4|, (2) 8.0 |60.7| Total: 79.2 Vyjack: Last: (2) 8.2 |53.0|, (2) 9.3 |53.7|, (2) 10.9 |56.1|, (2.5) 10.2 |52.3| Total: 82.5 Prev: (2) 9.6 |54.9|, (2) 11.5 |56.2|, (2) 8.6 |49.0|, (2.3) 8.7 |56.4| Total: 79.5 Mr Palmer: Last: (4) 8.2 |53.3|, (2) 9.8 |54.3|, (2) 10.3 |54.3|, (1) 9.8 |53.3| Total: 83.0 Prev: (2) 11.0 |54.1|, (2) 9.5 |52.9|, (2) 6.5 |48.0|, (2.3) 8.6 |57.2| Total: 74.4 Always in a Tiz: Last: (2) 11.7 |55.6|, (2) 11.6 |55.6|, (2) 9.4 |51.2|, (2.5) 3.2 |43.3| Total: 73.4 Prev: (2) 12.7 |56.4|, (2) 12.3 |56.1|, (2) 8.7 |49.3|, (2) 6.0 |50.8| Total: 79.4 Verrazano: Last: (2) 11.5 |54.9|, (2) 10.6 |54.3|, (2) 9.4 |52.5|, (2.5) 8.1 |51.7| Total: 83.3 Prev: (2) 12.6 |57.2|, (2) 13.5 |57.9|, (2) 9.7 |49.5|, (2) 8.0 |54.5| Total: 87.7 Go Get the Basil: Last: (2) 12.1 |55.2|, (2) 10.7 |54.2|, (2) 8.7 |51.1|, (2.3) 8.8 |54.5| Total: 83.3 Prev: (2) 8.3 |53.7|, (2) 10.4 |55.1|, (2) 10.0 |52.9|, (2) 9.8 |54.6| Total: 76.9 Freedom Child: Last: (4) 11.4 |53.7|, (2) 8.8 |52.0|, (2) 6.4 |48.8|, (1) 4.1 |47.5| Total: 80.4 Prev: (2) 10.8 |55.0|, (2) 11.1 |55.2|, (2) 9.6 |52.1|, (2.5) 6.5 |48.9| Total: 79.2 Analysis: I don't like Verrazano's pace figures in last; he looks like he digressed. They are not as sparkling as the previous mile at Gulfstream. I don't think he lasts with an honest pace. Vyjack actually circled the field in his last; an honest pace would set things up and not bother him at all. Originally, I thought that Always in a Tiz would be a factor (because we all know what Will Take Charge did in the Rebel), but why wasn't he in the Rebel? Also, I don't like his lackluster works. This brings me to the BIG SURPRISE: Take a look at Elnaawi. He broke his Maiden in January in the mud. He took a deep breath between the half and 6 furlong mark. Look at the calculated speed at the end of his race. I notice that he was FTL (first-time Lasix) in his last. I didn't expect him to do much coming off a break and a Maiden win; he ran well. He is capable of doing better. I think that after his Maiden win, his connections got feedback from the jockey and thought that they had something special and began pointing him at the Derby. He is dead serious in this. He also cost 500k. I also notice that Shadwell has Maleeh in the Bay Shore; this outfit could be loaded for bear tomorrow. (I also like Elnaawi's last work.)
Charles Sakach More than 1 year ago
FPS for the Bay Shore The numbers in parentheses represent the number of furlongs corresponding to the race segment. This is followed by the average speed in feet-per-second (FPS) minus 44 FPS; this is basically the average speed in-between the points of call. The numbers encapsulated with pipe characters ("|") represent an estimated speed in complete FPS at the exact point in the race; therefore the last number is the estimated speed at wire. The "total" is just the number of furlongs multiplied by the corresponding average speed and summed. All FPS are adjusted for track variant. This is done by reverse-engineering the final time where the 100 point score was awarded and comparing to a standard "parallel time" chart. Clawback: Last: (2) 13.3 |57.8|, (2) 14.0 |58.3|, (1) 10.4 |50.5|, (1) 7.0 |51.5| Total: 72.0 Prev: (2) 13.3 |57.9|, (2) 14.2 |58.6|, (1) 11.4 |52.3|, (1) 8.3 |52.4| Total: 74.9 Maleeh: Last: (2) 12.7 |57.6|, (2) 14.1 |58.5|, (1) 10.7 |51.0|, (1) 9.4 |55.9| Total: 73.8 Prev: (2) 10.8 |55.9|, (2) 12.5 |57.0|, (1) 12.4 |55.8|, (1) 11.0 |55.6| Total: 70.7 Retrieve: Last: (2) 13.7 |57.9|, (2) 14.0 |58.0|, (2) 8.4 |46.7|, (1) 6.3 |54.0| Total: 78.4 Prev: (2) 13.4 |56.7|, (2) 12.3 |56.0|, (1) 12.5 |56.9|, (1) 9.1 |49.3| Total: 72.9 Salutos Amigos: Last: (2) 12.5 |55.9|, (2) 11.7 |55.4|, (2) 9.5 |51.6|, (2.5) 4.7 |45.8| Total: 79.1 Prev: (2) 15.9 |58.4|, (2) 13.7 |56.9|, (1) 8.5 |48.0|, (1) 6.7 |53.4| Total: 74.5 Declan’s Warrior: Last: (2) 11.5 |56.3|, (2) 12.6 |57.0|, (2) 10.0 |51.1|, (1.5) 8.0 |52.9| Total: 80.4 Prev: (2) 13.0 |57.4|, (2) 13.5 |57.6|, (2) 8.5 |47.3|, (0.5) 6.7 |54.0| Total: 73.4 Honorable Dillon: Last: (2) 10.6 |54.6|, (2) 10.7 |54.7|, (2) 8.6 |50.6|, (2.5) 4.8 |46.9| Total: 71.7 Prev: (2) 13.5 |58.0|, (2) 14.3 |58.6|, (2) 9.0 |47.4|, (1) 6.8 |54.2| Total: 80.2 Silver Morgan: Last: (2) 10.1 |57.1|, (2) 14.6 |60.0|, (1) 12.0 |52.0|, (1) 9.9 |55.8| Total: 71.3 Prev: (2) 14.2 |56.9|, (2) 12.2 |55.5|, (1) 9.8 |52.2|, (0.5) 9.0 |53.8| Total: 67.1 Clearly Now: Last: (2) 12.0 |56.3|, (2) 12.5 |56.6|, (2) 11.1 |53.5|, (1) 8.5 |51.5| Total: 79.7 Prev: (2) 11.5 |55.4|, (2) 11.4 |55.4|, (2) 10.0 |52.7|, (2.5) 4.8 |45.0| Total: 77.9 The Truth and K G: Last: (2) 13.3 |55.6|, (2) 10.7 |53.8|, (2) 8.5 |51.2|, (2.3) 8.0 |52.8| Total: 83.5 Prev: (2) 12.3 |56.6|, (2) 12.7 |56.9|, (1) 12.0 |55.2|, (1) 11.0 |54.9| Total: 73.1 Analysis: I think that Maleeh is the most talented. There's a few knocks against some of the others. I like Declan's Warrior for the exacta.
Mark Scheider More than 1 year ago
Salutos Amigos wins this one jogging.
Mark Scheider More than 1 year ago
Maleeh will be run off of his feet.
Mark More than 1 year ago
Looks good . Just tough for me to take Guillot shipping in . And at that ml price. Facing much better here than he did breaking his maiden .
Charles Sakach More than 1 year ago
We'll see. I would rather be betting on a horse that cost $350k than...what was the stud fee on Salutos Amigos??...yeah $2.5k You Salutos fans are getting sucked into that San Felipe angle. I also find it difficult to take a horse headquartered in Santa Anita and expect a whole lot in New York. You haven't seen Maleeh's best. Saluto's figures don't even put him close.
Joel Winicki More than 1 year ago
Playing a horse based on what he cost, or his sire's stud fee, only shows your ignorance really doesn't matter if you're right or wrong. Ever heard of John Henry? Horses have no idea what they cost, nor do they care.....
Rogelio More than 1 year ago
I guess Baffert and Pletcher should go tell their clients to stop wasting all that money, then.
Mark More than 1 year ago
Like I said Nick Zito ! 12-1 winner !
Chessywinny More than 1 year ago
Great conditioning for Verrazano off that win in Tampa Downs...that track can get a horse real fit for next race.....
Mark More than 1 year ago
Zito looks like a live long shot in Bay Shore
Mark More than 1 year ago
Rosie/stall in Ashland Apriority
Mark More than 1 year ago
Magical moon scratched from Ashland. Wave Theory and Every Way
Mark More than 1 year ago
With #1
Mark More than 1 year ago
1. Verrazano 2. Normandy Invasion 3. Always in a Tiz , Elnaawii Triple and Verrazano / Tiz,Elnaawi/ Normandy Invasion for a little
Mark More than 1 year ago
V/ elnaawi NI EXACTAS