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Updated: May 21, 2012. Weekly Thoroughbred racing divisional ratings by Mike Watchmaker, national handicapper for Daily Racing Form. Horses must have at least one start in North America.
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Thank you for the props for I'll Have Another! He definitely deserves it!
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Mikey.....The Factor? What about all the accomplishments of the horses placed behind him? 2,4,5 all coming of imprssive wins too. The factor should be in 5th and 2,3,4,5 should all be moved up one. I really respect your opinon too. This was crazy though......
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So the proof that Dullahan "clearly handles" dirt is running 3rd twice, with the first time being his first start in a MSW?
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Force Freeze #6 on the sprinter list? Hope the public thinks the same. And The Factor #1? keep thinking it nad make my wager profit fatter.
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Well, Dullahan may "clearly handle" dirt, but he sure hasn't shown any desire to win on it. I don't at all think he is a dirt horse.
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If Santa Anita dont switch back to dirt do we ever really know about ILL Have Another and the left coast dominance this yr? First yr in a long time that coast sent real dirt horses to the Derby.
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The Factor seriously?He aint top 10 unless he runs in a 4 horse field with no speed in race. 2,3,4,5,6 are all way better. I think Shackleford is the best sprinter going 6 F. He will prove it eventually this fall.
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Mike I know Agave Kiss has only sprinted but she is 6 for 6 and ran the second fastest beer of any three year old male or female. She should have been in the top four three year old females!
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to honour and serve just better than other older horses,alternation probably 2nd best,calebs posse.amazombie,jackson bend and possibly shackleford all better than the factor,finaly ill have another gets respect,better late than never,he is the top 3yo union rags and bodemeister next,one race does not make or break a horses talent union rags will be back,hopefully not to spoil ill take anothers triple crown.
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bode will tire and tire all that try early leaving ill have another and a deep closer to pick up second .have not hcaped the race yet
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Wise Dan is not better then Successful Dan, really its not close. Just ask his trainer.
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Mike:
Surprised you dropped Amazombie from 2nd to 5th after losing the Churchill Sprint by less than a length to Shack.
You moved Shack(and the other Carter horses) ahead of Amazombie, giving the indication that you believe Shack beat Amazombie fair and square and that this result flatters the Carter.
But a couple of things to keep in mind. First, Amazombie was shipping cross country and had to meet Shack in that one's backyard. Second, Amazombie carried 5 lbs more than Shack. Third, Amazombie is better at 6 furlongs that the 7 furlongs of the Churchill Sprint. The BC Sprint will be run at 6 furlongs at Santa Anita, a distance and track over which Amazombie has flourished(keep it in mind should Amazombie remain healthy until then).
Yes, I give credit to Shack for winning. But if you're going to keep Bodemeister ahead of I'll Have Another after losing to him on the track, why drop Amazombie below Shack and two other horses when he had legit reasons for losing?
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Well he listed the Preakness Exacta in order. There goes my price
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Watchmaker, how bout Closing Arguement's 2nd to Giacomo ???
Did you have HIM 2nd in your Rankings after THAT Derby ???
Ridiculous...and it IS disrespect to I'll Have Another !!!
Let's get this straight.......
I'll have another Wins the Robert Lewis.....
Creative Cause wins the San Felipe....beat Bode
I'll have another beats CC in the SA Derby.....(Bode leaves town)
I'll have another beats CC AND Bode in the KY Derby.....yet Bode gets the nod in your Rankings.........YOU EXPERTS GOT IT WRONG, stop making excuses for it !!!
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Good Lord, can you imagine what Watchmaker would have said had Bodemeister NOT walked the last 1/8th?
What we are seeing by some of the big handicappers is an effort to win the spin after being proven wrong on the track.
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How many dual-grade 1 winners were there in last year's crop? How long did it take?
We already have a 3 year old that has won 2 grade 1s, and he just happens to be the Kentucky Derby winner. And he's also won a grade 2 this year.
Bodemeister is talented, no doubt. But in his 3 graded stakes, he's only won one of them. Creative Cause beat him on the square in the San Felipe and I'll Have Another did the same in Kentucky.
But I do understand your reasoning for Bodemeister being #1. This, even though I know if you had to vote for the Eclipse award now, you would vote I'll Have Another.
Folks, the rankings are also about what Mike feels the horses will do in the future and isn't simply a referendum on the past.
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I have to question the true quality of this year's 3 year olds. After a blistering pace in the Derby, only one closer fired and his last quarter was almost 27 seconds. Not impressed!
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Why just give bodie meister number 1 He's not the derby winner.
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if any horse had an advantage sat. bode was the one. trinny or not he had no pressure on what everyone could see was front end speed,and iha just ran him down no horse caught any horse from as far away as he did all day.hope bode is ready for the next one racing needs a good rivalry all the way to the belmont.speakinf as a fan im dying to see them go at each other for awhile
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Mike Watchmaker... Horse for horse - me n you - I'll take I'll Have Another for a grand to your Bodemeister...
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How can you say "no disrespect" and then list him as 2nd. I'll Have Another beat Bodemeister on the square, and he won the Santa Anita Derby over Creative Cause, who easily beat Bodemeister.
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Mr watchmaker your comments and rankings are as foolish as Andy Beyers you should both be give up your writing assignments........So you lost on Bodemeister give it up already! I'll have another is Number 1. End of story.
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DRF is becoming increasing irrelevant to my handicapping. I can read the BSFs as well as they can. The trouble is that that is all they read.
In the flesh I'll have Another looked perfect all week - nobody that I read or talked to all week said anything but that he looked in awesome shape. His work on the track was great all week. He turned in two extremely game graded stakes wins at Santa Anita (which I think had lower Beyers than deserved) and produced a scintillating workout in front of a big crown on a warm afternoon on Big Cap day. Despite all that the only DRF expert that had him for the KD was Brad Free who actually saw him race in person and presumably was around the horse.
Now the horse runs a brilliant race while chasing down a horse with a 5 length lead at the top of the stretch (from the 19 post no less), once again beating the best of the California horses (who happened to be the best horses in the race).
He is the only undefeated 3-year old of note in 2012 and the only horse to win 3 graded stakes races this year, two of which are Grade 1s.
And yet Watchmaker doesn't have him ranked as the best 3 year old in the country. I should actually be glad that Watchmaker doesn't have Union Rags ranked above him now that I think about it.
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This is insane! Really, ranking the Derby winner 2nd. I bet Bodemeister, thought he was a sure winner on the turn, but then I saw the winner coming and new there was a better horse in the race. Why everyone wants to hype up Bode's second place finish is beyond explanation, yes the horse ran brilliantly fast, the track was also lightingin quick and kind to front runners all weekend, yet he got run down. Bode was not quiting, Ill Have Another was and is just simply better. Might Bode beat him at a mile, or maybe a 1 1/16 miles yes. But at any distance beyond that it is unlikely. IHA beat Creative Cause, Creative Cause had already beat Bode. Now IHA cruises past Bode and still he does not get the respect he deserves. Might this be the Dough O'Neil factor at play?
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I'll have another 2nd? What a joke, C'mon Watchmaker? I'll Have Another is more tactical than Bodemeister! He's proven his class in three races this year. He broke well accelerated to get position and stalked exceptionally well. The jockey is getting way to much credit, IMO.
DRF staff will never learn.
Get over the BSF's or you fellas's will continue to hemorrhage money!
On second thought, Ignore everything I said!
Please continue to talk up Bodemeister and I'll take 2-1 on I'll Have Another on Preakness day.
(I think Bodemeister is still an exceptional horse.)
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Please take retired or injured horses off your list
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Why do you continue to keep Algorythms name on the 3YO list? How about replacing him with someone who might actually run in the KD?
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Mike regarding blinkers off, taken em off and wake up, "Gemologist" is top 3 at
the least....I love Creative Cause as well, but my fear is he will be a "bridesmaid"
quite frequently, maybe in KD as well....really a downer to still how blind you are
on "Gem", guess we'll just have to save another nice big slice of "Humble Pie"
once again...but good to see your DRF sidekick has it right.
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Algorithms, a Pletcher horse "injured" in February? Ranked 3rd? More like 30th.
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Union Rags is tough, followed by Hansen, Gemologist, Ill have another coming on strong, and I have secret weapon for my fifth horse for my box 5. Good Luck to everyone!
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Top rank 3yo Figs: Gemologist #1(118) @(i m), I'll Have Another, #2 (117) @ (1.1/8 m) Creative Cause, #3 (117) @ (1 1/8 m) Union Rags! #4 (116) @ (1 1/6 m) Secret Circle #5 (116) @ (1m) El Padrino #6 (115) @ (1.1/6 m)
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The Factor not best @ 6 fur! Forest Freeze best now! Caleb's Posse best @ 7 fur w/ The Factor,Forest Freeze a Jackson Bend! Caleb's Posse and Jackson Bend tight @ mile!
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The older females top ten currently looks much deeper than the males. Hopefully someone steps up in the male division. I think you have the 3 year male division dead on Mike.
Would you consider adding a category for Trainer Off the Claim? We have these wonderfully "talented" trainers like Jamie Ness, Richard Dutrow, Tom Amoss and a slew of others who need some recognition too. When they claim one for $7,500-$10,000 and regularly improve their BSF 20 points while winning for $25,000 or in open ALW it should be recognized in print. That might be another Top Ten List your readers would really enjoy.
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So my miss areulea is just stricken from the record for not running yet this year?
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Why is Optimizer not listed on the "Ranked by Earnings" top twenty list? He has $181,000+ in graded stakes earnings, and is listed as #12 on the list showing the graded stakes earnings.
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Got to update the PPs
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I would love to see a sprint race with your top five in it prior to the Breeder's Cup. I don't want to wait that long. I am a huge Caleb's Posse fan, but Force Freeze looked awfully good Saturday. Jackson Bend is so gutsy. The Breeder's Cup champ Amazombie and The Factor to round them out. This is going to be a fun division to watch.
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Really? You loved Fed Biz's performance that much? I thought Bodemeister was more impressive, not to mention El Padrino, at least to name horses that are coming out of non stakes races.
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Best Bets
WILCOX went five-wide on the first turn en route to a nine-length loss when he debuted around two turns on the Polytrack. The son of the highly successful Giant's Causeway is a half-brother to the stakes-placed turf expert Woodbourne. He should make some noise for an accomplished second-out trainer, who's enlisted a hot Stein for the mount. ATTENDANT was a minor player on the grass at the Fair Grounds, before trailing in a small field in the Wando Stakes here on the Poly. AIR BLADE regressed off his big comeback race most recently.
