Most people who have even a casual acquaintance with Kentucky Derby history know that the last horse to win the Derby without having raced at 2 was Apollo in 1882. But that 136-year streak is under a serious double-barreled threat this year. One gunning to end this run is Justify, the brilliant Southern California-based colt who debuted Feb. 18 and was most impressive winning an allowance at Santa Anita last week to make it two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure scores in as many starts. The other is the East Coast-based Magnum Moon, who made his first start Jan. 13 and who extended his sensational unbeaten streak to three with a dominating score in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Truth be told, this Derby streak has been skating on thin ice for a while. Fusaichi Pegasus, winner of the 2000 Kentucky Derby, made his racing debut on Dec. 11, 1999. That was only a couple of weeks before the frankly arbitrary and totally bookkeeping-friendly cutoff date of Jan. 1, the birthday of all Northern Hemisphere Thoroughbreds, which is the entire foundation (made of Jell-O, I think) of this Derby streak. And in the 2012 Derby, Bodemeister almost brought an end to this streak. Bodemeister, who did not begin his racing career until Jan. 16 of that year, ran a winning race in that Derby. He was pressured into a scorching pace by the sprinter Trinniberg, but still opened a clear lead late on the far turn and seemed on his way to victory as (notably) the 4-1 favorite, only to be worn down very late by I’ll Have Another. Combine these examples with the prevailing training philosophy in today’s game that less racing produces bigger results, and you can see why lots of folks believe this long Kentucky Derby streak will go down much sooner than later. I mean, no one can even make a strong claim anymore that in today’s game the top Derby candidates who did race at 2 are meaningfully more seasoned than those who did not race as juveniles. You certainly can’t this year. I think we would likely agree that at this moment, the top three prospects for this Derby who did race last year are Bolt d’Oro, McKinzie, and Good Magic. If these three remain healthy and stay on their schedules, they will have a total number of career starts going into the Derby of six, five, and five, respectively. Justify and Magnum Moon will have three and four starts, respectively. In this instance, a start or two is not going to be enough to negate a talent gap if a significant talent gap does indeed exist. Anyway, Justify didn’t beat much last week, but his performance was more about how he did it (very, very easily), and how fast he ran. He and Bolt d’Oro are currently the only members of his generation to own two triple-digit Beyers and – obviously – Justify is the only one to put up two of them this year. Magnum Moon has yet to earn a triple-digit Beyer, but the preliminary Beyer of 97 he received for the Rebel is close enough for government work. Like Justify, Magnum Moon’s Rebel was about the way he did it – stalking the pace from close range, taking over at will into the stretch, and running strongly through the wire as though the more distance, the better, which is what you would expect from a son of Kentucky Derby sire Malibu Moon. Unlike Justify, however, Magnum Moon’s Rebel was also about whom he beat – primarily Solomini. Solomini, who last year finished second, albeit a soundly beaten one, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and FrontRunner, was making his first start Saturday since finishing first in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, beating McKinzie (Solomini was subsequently disqualified for alleged stretch interference in what was, as noted here several times, a bad call). Sure, McKinzie has improved since Los Alamitos, and Solomini was coming off a layoff in the Rebel. Still, Solomini won his debut, proving he can run well off works alone, and is backed by the Bob Baffert barn, one of the best layoff outfits in the business, so a representative performance was expected. In other words, Solomini was a pretty reliable barometer by which to measure Magnum Moon, and Magnum Moon ate him for breakfast. It is not a stretch to conclude, then, that Magnum Moon is currently the best Kentucky Derby candidate not based in Southern California. Better than Promises Fulfilled. Arguably better than barnmate Audible. And yes, better at this point in time than Good Magic. Notes: ** There is an abundance of high-class talent in the older dirt female division, but much of it is concentrated at the top. That division’s leaders can’t be everywhere all the time, and when some are absent for whatever reason (such as Unique Bella’s cough), it creates golden opportunities for others. Saturday’s Grade 1 Santa Margarita was a perfect example. Unique Bella had to miss the race, and that turned the Santa Margarita into an opportunity for mares who might never see a chance like this again to not only win a rich purse, but also go for the broodmare brass ring. Almost the entire Santa Margarita field was comprised of entrants thoroughly ill-suited to the 1 1/8-mile distance. Fault, a turf filly, was the exception, and she ran away with the race. In this case, distance ability clearly trumped surface preference. Fault is now 2 for 2 since moving west and joining the Phil D’Amato barn. She is in career form, for sure. But let’s keep her prospects in check because as sharp as she is now, the limited Santa Margarita field also had a big hand in making her look as good as she looked. ** I know Saturday was the biggest day of the year at Turfway Park, so the inclination is to cut the track a little slack. But the post time drag before the featured Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes was an affront to horseplayers and fans. Post time for the Ruby was scheduled for 6 pm. It went off at 6:25 pm. Yes, there were objections in the Rushaway earlier in the card that resulted in a disqualification, but that’s why time is built-in between races – to compensate for that. It really was a huge turnoff watching the Ruby horses circling around behind the gate for minutes when the Ruby was already about 20 minutes past its scheduled post. ** Thank goodness good sense overcame the desire for change for change’s sake last week, and the format for the Breeders’ Cup was left alone. Don’t get me wrong. I do think the Breeders’ Cup format needs tweaking. I wish it would get smaller, not bigger. I’d like to see it consolidate its strength and trade on that, not dilute its brand. Won’t happen, though.