10/22/2014 4:22PM

Vernon: Friday 10/24 Analysis


Best Bet: CENTURION ATM (10th)

Race 1

(6) JL Cruze nearly survived an extended first-over battle last week, leading briefly before Proud Flag struck the front in the closing yards.  He’s shown good staying power, and could threaten off a cozier tracking trip tonight. (1)You’re Catching On ships in from the Pennsylvania three-turn miles, finding N4L company at Pocono too tough after beating N3L foes at Philly.  She’s scored her two wins on the year from close tracking trips, and her inside draw should enable a similar early position. (4)Laettner hasn’t missed a check in his last seven, struggling to keep up with the dominant Daley Lovin last week.  Past efforts show ample staying power, so he’s a logical minor consideration here.

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Race 2

(4) Jersey Strong broke on the far turn at Philly last out in her Historic Stake division, but hit the board in five consecutive races prior to that.  She was a closing second in the PA Sire Stakes Championships in September, and is well proven so far in her young career. (6)Sweet Thing held clear for a 1:55 3/5 Kindergarten win last week, showing improvement since switching to the two-turn mile.  Her chasing 1:54 3/5 effort at Lexington two back shows ample promise. (3)Model Behavior comes in from the Green Acres series at Freehold, earning two wins and two seconds since breaking maiden at Tioga in August.  While she moves into a stouter group tonight, she’s got good enough form to factor in the exotics.

Race 3

(6) Allerage Star won her Kindergarten leg two back, recovering from a break to just prevail by way of a :27 3/5 LQ.  She looked strong in her pair of Tioga wins, and can reasonably control the terms throughout. (5)Pad Princess chased to hold second in her last three stakes engagements, hitting the board in all but one of her 10 career races.  Noting the company she’s faced, she stacks up well in this group, but she’ll need a pressured pace for optimal results. (3)Kaliska broke early in the NY Sire Stakes final in September, but had good fortune in the preliminaries, winning at Monticello and Batavia from pocket trips.  A close tracking trip would prove ideal for this $47K Harrisburg purchase.

Race 4

(7) Painite battled gamely in a narrow defeat last week, beaten by the ground-saving Frisky Joe after sustaining a strong first-over bid.  If she can stay in contention after that tough trip against just stouter rivals, a cozier one should prove all the better. (1)Canadian Justice drops in class after flattening from the pocket last out, but she’s done well enough against tougher foes earlier in the season.  She possesses ample raw speed to factor at this level, and the class drop should enable her a better shot to rally late off a close tracking trip. (8) Choke Hold is back in for the optional $6k tag, collared by Hold On Tightly after making steady progress on the far turn.  That effort leaves plenty to like, but he’s tasked with staving off newcomers who drop in from tougher events.

Race 5

(7) Boots N Chains just missed from the pocket in last week’s Kindergarten division, just missing 20-1 shot Dapper Don.  Though still a maiden, he’s been no worse than fourth since August, facing nothing but stakes company since.  His string of sub-:28 LQs at Lexington are promising. (4)Wheels Ah Smokin comes back off a six-week layoff, fading late in the Wellwood after suffering early traffic trouble.  A clearer journey should prove all the more beneficial for the second-time Åke Svanstedt trainee. (1)Broken Record won a Green Acres leg at Freehold by 27-1/2 lengths, but no doubt faces a more seasoned group here.  That said, the four-time winner can secure a close early spot and hold enough to round out exotics.

Race 6

(4) Muscle Diamond rallied well from off the pace in his last three efforts, winning at Lexington with a pair of seconds against stakes company prior to that.  He made a late kick to score in the Tompkins at Tioga prior to that, and should have no problem riding this strong recent form into tonight’s event. (1)Billy Flynn has been beaten by no worse than a head in 9 career starts, sweeping his Pennsylvania Sire Stakes schedule while also beating Lexington stakes company.  With the likelihood of pressure from #5 and #7, the race seems to shape up better for a tracker-stalker, but there’s plenty to like about this earner of $331K already. (3)Ralph R has hit the board in 10 of 13 career races, flattening off a wide bid in his Kindergarten effort last week.  However, past stalking efforts have shown decent late trot, and he can rally enough for a minor if the pace shapes up to be contested.

Race 7

(5) Crescent City only shows one win in her 12 career races, but demonstrated strong raw speed at Lexington and Philly.  After a string of five minor checks against tough stakes company, this tracker-stalker could threaten late if #6, #7, #8, and #9 contest a hot pace. (8)Happiness held sway for a 1:53.1 Historic Stake win at Philly last out, keeping her undefeated record intact after overnight wins in PA.  Tonight’s group is a bit tougher, but she’s already demonstrated good versatility and results. (2)Deli Beach just missed off a tracking trip at Philly last week, but proved a pillar-to-post winner in the Reynolds at Tioga four back.  Her inside draw should get her close enough to the pace to stay in contention late.

Race 8

(1) Proud Flag steps up off a strong two-length win against N3L foes, kicking cover for a 1:56 2/5 score.  He’s hit the board in all but one race on the year, and has shown consistently good late trot.  Capable on the class rise. (3)Winbak Meadow held third from the pocket last week, laboring late while giving futile chase to Daley Lovin.  A pocket trip yielded a win at this level the week prior, however.  Five straight starts ITM at this level are no doubt promising, but he needs the close tracking trip. (5)Keystone Sapphire hasn’t raced since last November, qualifying a good bit better last week after a trio of lackluster morning efforts.  She finds a much easier group than the fields she faced in Toronto last fall.  Minor consideration off last week’s solid trial.

Race 9

(7) Oh No Three O is in search of his fourth straight win, shrugging off a late challenge en route to a 1:54 1/5 win two weeks ago.  While he dictated the pace in his last two, he’s capable of winning from off the pace as well.  Versatility + form = strong choice. (8)Here Comes Numbers held for a mid-level Yonkers win two back, striking from the pocket five back to beat similar as well.  He ships in from Toronto after finishing a non-threatening seventh, and the class relief should be of benefit.  Post 8, however, not so much. (5)A Penny Earned has been no worse than fourth in his last seven races, consistently facing Open company and proving competitive from a variety of trips.  Strong minor consideration, but use higher if the price is right.

Race 10

(2) Centurion ATM comes in off a pair of narrow misses at Lexington, but kicked clear for a 1:53 2/5 win in the $355K Peter Haughton on Hambletonian Day.  He’s got strong form and clear strength-of-schedule edge.  Seek value in exotics. (6)SS Poseidon never got involved in last week’s Kindergarten division after a break at the start, but he reeled off seven straight ITM finishes against stakes company prior to that.  Best of the rest, given his ability to control the terms or rally from a tracking trip. (4)Dapper Don narrowly held for an upset win in last week’s Kindergarten division, heading right the front and holding off Boots N Chains in 1:56.  Momentum off that win paired with past staying power can get him in the hunt for a minor share.

Race 11

(7) Oaklea Tyson was just collared last week after having been pushed through a :28 3/5 third quarter, but he’s held his own well at this level.  Prior to last week’s fourth-place effort, he held second in two consecutive outings, toiling to stay relevant against top-level conditioned foes prior to that.  Plenty to like. (4) Mystical Con rallied from the back for a narrow win at this level three back, staying on well in his last two efforts as well.  Last week, he only missed by two lengths after he was forced four-wide in the stretch.  A less demanding trip could benefit this optional $8k claimer. (5)Hold On Tightly steps up off a narrow win last week, kicking cover to just prevail in 1:56 3/5.  He’s shown better late trot in his last two races, and can use it to hit the ticket late.

Race 12

(1) Tomy Terror narrowly held for a 1:52 stakes score at the Meadows last out, hitting the exacta in all nine of his career starts.  Largely facing PA-based stakes company, he moves to the big track with good form and good raw speed.  Lots to like. (2)Bet You never got involved from post 8 in the NY Sire Stakes final, but shows good lines in past efforts when not hampered by such an unfavorable draw.  His late kick at Philly last out yielded a 1:51 3/5 third-place effort.  Lots to like here too, especially if he can stay up close. (5)Hall of Terror shows Lexington and Reynolds stakes wins this year, along with a trio of PA Stallion Series scores.  Others have advantages in terms of raw speed and class, but he’s a logical minor consideration given his consistently good efforts.

Race 13

(1) Socks and Shuzy won her last three races since coming back from a six-week layoff, kicking clear from the pocket in strong fashion last week over the off going.  She stays in against similar company off the victory last week, and her form has been no doubt solid. (5)Magical Lass ships in from Ontario, finding major class relief over Ontario Sire Stakes races.  She narrowly held sway for a 1:59 1/5 Mohawk win three back, but missed the board in her other efforts.  Cozier spot should be of benefit. (6)Fashionableapple faded of a first-over try last week, but performed better in past efforts against easier groups.  Excuse her line last week on account of the extended first-over push.

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