08/01/2014 3:04PM

Tioga: Sunday 8/3 Analysis

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Fred Brown
Tioga Downs has some of the best takeout rates in standardbred racing.

Best Bet: HE’S WATCHING (10th)

Race 1

(7) BETTOR'S PRIMOSE made a push to the fore last week against similar foes, but was gathered in coming off the far turn.  Plenty to like off his two-move effort, and he finds a similar group here. (5) IRISH BRIDE has been a consistent contender against maiden fillies, hitting the board in five of her last six.  She'll have to demonstrate better raw speed today, but she's got ample ability. (9) PRINCE PINDAR stayed on for minor shares in his last two starts, turning in a 1:55.4 mile in his first start back off almost a year.  Capable of stalking for a minor share with a strong start.

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Race 2

(6) ALEX BULLVILLE stayed on well in C-2 events at the Meadowlands, having shown good-but short-efforts locally against tougher groups.  Gets some class relief, and picks up YannickGingras. (8) HURRICANE HOWARD won two of his last three at this level, racing under the optional $15k tag.  He's a likely pacesetter in this group, and could well end up lone speed despite his outside draw. (9) LEGENDS LUCK picks up Tim Tetrick, and finds class relief from recent Meadowlands efforts.  He's not lacking for raw speed, as he still turned in a 1:50.4 mile in his last-place effort last week.

Race 3

(4) CASHAWAY has demonstrated consistently strong closing kick in two pari-mutuel starts and three qualifiers at the Meadowlands, just missing in a NJSS final on 7-12 after a pacesetting win the week prior.  Strong form from the outset leaves plenty to like. (2) IDEAL NUGGETS sustained a first-over push in that same NJSS final, flattening a bit in the stretch after an extended bid.  Past efforts show potent late kick off cover, and she could be a threat from just off the pace as a result. (5) WICKED LITTLE MINX has shown good speed throughout from close trips, barring an early break in the NJSS final.  Aside from that, she's proven an ability to start and finish well enough.

Race 4

(4) FORTY FIVE RED shows solid NYSS lines, winning two back at Yonkers in 1:52.3 while staving off pressure from Winds of Change.  Burke trainee has enjoyed solid recent form. (7) TWIN B SPEEDO only missed the board once this year, and that was over the hairpin Buffalo oval after falling victim to traffic.  He was a chasing second at Batavia last week to All Bets Off, who proved a dominant 1:51.2 winner.  Capable if involved early on. (6) MOLIERE HANOVER demonstrated improved versatility in a NYSS win at Batavia last week off cover, having shown his best efforts in the past from at or near the lead.  Minor consideration here.

Race 5

(1) MAJOR DANCER faced strong company in Ontario, tiring late after a wide bid in the Fan Hanover but rebounding well in the Town Pro series and a NYSS event at Saratoga.  Came back with a 1:55 workout at Yonkers, and should handle this competition well enough. (8) BLUSH HANOVER hit the board in 10 of 11 career efforts, with her only race out of the money ending up in a close fourth-place finish behind top Mid-Atlantic open mare Monochromatic at Philly three back.  She's been a consistent threat on the NYSS circuit this season, and faces largely similar foes here. (6) ALI BLUE is only making her second start as a three-year-old, but the Takter trainee boasts close finishes in the Matron and the Three Diamonds from her two-year-old campaign.  Should be a bit tighter today.

Race 6

(5) DADDY MAC gave futile chase in a 1:50 Meadowlands effort last week, staying on well in traffic at Saratoga against open company in his prior effort.  He makes his local debut on the season, and seems to be a good fit in this field given recent chasing efforts. (7) TOBAGO CAYS made a late bid against upper-level conditioned foes at Yonkers last week, but had too far to rally from a post 7 start.  He's not lacking for staying power, and can contend well off a stalking trip here. (3) PRAIRIE JAGUAR figures to be part of the early pace, but proved some closing capability last week, rallying late to save second behind Fireyourguns.  Newcomers make the race interesting this week, but he has to be considered given his consistent presence in contention.

Race 7

(7) TABLE TALK finished a game third in the Mistletoe Shalee off a strong first-over try, but more recently broke in a NYSS event at Saratoga.  This $3,500 Harrisburg purchase carries a solid class edge. (4) PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY made solid late progress in her Mistletoe Shalee elimination, and again in the final, but her rallies proved too late off excess cover.  With #2, #5, and #6 capable of providing pace pressure, she can pose a definite threat from off cover. (6) IT WAS FASCINATION held sway narrowly in a NYSS event at Yonkers last week after protecting the lead throughout, and rallied late to just miss at Saratoga the week prior.  She faces some stouter foes here, but her versatility is a definite plus.  Not lacking for late kick, either.

Race 8

(5) OYSTER BAY powered clear for a 1:52.3 win at this level last week, and has shown improved form with his recent rise in class.  Good momentum as of late is a definite plus. (3) BEIGNET was embroiled in a :25.3 first-quarter duel at Vernon last out before weakening, but beat optional $15k foes in front-end fashion the week prior.  Ships in and faces a slightly softer group.  Plenty to like off recent outings, but the pace may be more contested here. (2) HURTIN ALBERTAN held sway to just prevail two back, and sustained a bid off cover to take second at this level last week.  Free-legged pacer shows good stalking ability, but will need to be towed part of the way into contention for best results.

Race 9

(5) DEALT A WINNER recovered from a break in the NJSS final to save third after winning both of his preliminaries.  His closing kick is best described as potent, and he could prove a major threat from a stalking trip. (4) MY HERO RON showed good staying power in PA Stallion Series events, just prevailing at Pocono two back off a :27.2 LQ.  More recently, his 1:53.4 Meadows race has been his fastest yet, but he was gathered in after making a late push to the fore. (1) WESTERN PIONEER rallied late for fourth in the NJSS final two back, and sustained a more steady gain to take second from a post 10 start more recently.  Team Johansson has him in prime shape, and he could provide some value.

Race 10

(2) HE'S WATCHING kicked off cover to win the Meadowlands Pace with a :25.3 LQ, and his 1:46.4 mile is matched by few in the sport's history.  He's finding his best strides again at three after an 8-for-8 freshman campaign.  Current form leaves him the one to beat. (3) JK ENDOFANERA faded off a first-over bid in the Meadowlands Pace, but proved a solid front-end winner in his elimination after rallying off cover to take the North America Cup in June.  Certainly a capable champion in his own right, but He's Watching gets the edge on current form. (1) WESTERN CONQUEST shows a pair of front-end NYSS wins in June, but has fallen victim to pace pressure and cashing trips more recently.  A cozier trip could yield a minor share here.

Race 11

(3) AINT NO MO proved gutsy against Open 2 company last week, battling first-over and just missing by a half-length in a :56.3 back half.  He drops a level here, and has shown solid form as of late. (9) SHEER BRILLIANCE figures to be involved from the outset, as past efforts have shown a preference to being prominent early.  While post 9 may be an obstacle, the classy veteran has demonstrated good stalking and chasing ability.  Expect a much less strenuous pace scenario in comparison to his third-place effort last week. (2) RECKLESS RIC makes a lateral move from a fifth-place effort at Pocono, but traffic trouble took him out of contention.  Prior efforts against easier groups show good staying ability, with his first-over bid two back particularly attractive.

Race 12

(9) AHEAD OF THE CROWD recovered from traffic trouble to just miss last week, having shown even efforts against tougher Yonkers groups.  Class edge should be apparent in this group, and a clearer trip would no doubt benefit. (4) I AM WILL beat similar foes last week, holding sway under duress to narrowly prevail.  He's not missed the exacta in five career starts, and continues to ride a strong form cycle to kick off his career. (2) LILYS REAL BOY steps up off back-to-back wins, and could make a late push off a stalking trip to round out exotics with some value.  Form is improving, but he steps up into a stouter group today.

Race 13

(7) WILDVILLE was too far back to threaten last week from a post 9 start, but showed consistent closing kick to prior efforts.  Strong threat off cover. (3) TRAFFIC COP makes his second start after shipping east from Illinois, staying on for third at Philly off a pocket trip last week.  He finds some class relief here, and figures well with a close trip. (5) AUTOMATIC SLIMS finds an easier group after staying on for third off a stalking trip last week behind the solid Hurricane Howard.  Midpack post should enable a cozy tracking trip again.

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