07/06/2012 2:33PM

Tioga: Sunday 7/8 Analysis

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MEET STATS: 33 - 107 / $186.70

Best Bet:  THAT’S JUSTICE (7th)     Spot Play: WEEKEND GETAWAY (4th)

Race 1

(5) TREMENDOUS HIT seems to have been facing slightly better foes and does find a field with enough early speed to set him up. (2) S F SURE THING should come away close to the action and has one of the top amateur drivers. (3) DOUBLE A GLORIA could be dangerous with a trip.

Race 2

(3) FLAK JACKET N has seen some bad trips lately and seems likely to be able to make the top today. (1) KONJO N comes off a toss-out mile from post seven; good spot. (7) MISTER T-REX has some early speed. Uses it?

Race 3

(1) MAJOR WORK OF ART almost lasted when dropped to this level last week; another shot. (2) CARSON CITY ROAD sports plenty of excuses and does drop in class today. That said, his 0 for 18 record this year is tough to swallow. (4) COSMIC QI is another who was facing better but is winless (9 starts) this year.

Race 4

(5) WEEKEND GETAWAY has spent most of her recent time against some stakes-level horses. This spot looks easier. (2) MEMORY KING was short in his first start since November; eligible to improve. (3) QUEST posted some nice miles at Monticello.

Race 5

(1) BRONSON BLUE CHIP is certainly not a horse that I love, but he does have speed and the rail against a weak field. (6) SOUTHERN SWAN seems to be in an easier spot this week. (7) FIRST LANDING drops down the class ladder.

Race 6

(7) SODYS TUFFTRIFECTA comes off two solid seconds and certainly doesn’t face any killers. (4) CELEBRITY SCANDAL was in too tough last week. His prior form was fine. (2) YOUR BEST BET arrives here in search of a better spot and may have found it.

Race 7

(4) THAT’S JUSTICE drops another level as he searches for a winning spot. I have to assume he will be handled more aggressively today. (7) LOOKETTEJASPER was facing slightly better at Saratoga and was certainly in tougher when last seen here. (1) REDNECK RIVIERA has the early speed to get a decent piece.

Race 8

(3) JEREMYS SUCCESSOR does his best work when he draws well and can control the action. Bingo! (5) CHEYENNE KNIGHT was a solid third at this level last time. (4) YANKEES IN SIX picked up a win at Vernon. He is sharp now.

Race 9

This is a competitive event on paper. I’m going to take a shot with (8) GOLDEN TERROR, who ships in from Buffalo while razor sharp and sports 10 wins this year. (3) VLOS blasted down the road to just miss in his last two tries here. (4) EASTEND EDDIE could not be sharper. (5) WINBAK DIMENSIONS got in the win column last time; maybe.

Race 10

(5) SHAMDEROCK has actually been racing pretty well and does get to drop one class. (7) FAMEOUS WESTERN finds a much easier spot this week; very dangerous. (1) BREAK EVEN finally got back in the win column; exotics chance at least. (4) ERICHS BEST comes off a second at this level.

Race 11

(4) KEYSTONE VELOCITY and (7) SHEER BRILLIANCE stick out as the clear horses to beat in this race. The former has been in over his head lately and the latter drops down and has plenty of early speed. (2) OPAN HEART could be a threat with a smooth trip.
 

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