07/28/2012 10:46AM

Tioga: Sunday 7/29 Analysis

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MEET STATS: 39 - 131 / $223.80

Best Bet: HESTON BLUE CHIP (8th)     Spot Play: TRUE DESIRE (6th)

Race 1

(2) THE PAN FLAMINGO came up short in his first start off the bench. I can see him showing more now. (4) BREAK EVEN was sharp last week and might be alone on the engine today. (1) RAGING GRIN might be over his head a bit but should get away close to the pace and could score a decent piece.

Race 2

(5) IDEAL GRIFF has performed very well in the Excelsior series and looks like the clear chalk. (3) MY BOOGIE SHOES has finished second the last three times he raced in this series. (7) ESCAPE MASTER has some talent; needs trip.

Race 3

This is a tough race. (1) FOREVER JUST has inside speed and form; slight edge. (4) MAJOR BOMBAY was much more professional last time; maturing? (6) CORAL SNAKE is loaded with talent; hard to toss. (2) DYNAMIC YOUTH comes off a big mile.

Race 4

(3) FIREYOURGUNS is back in against his peers and should perk up. (5) BETTORIFFIC should gun to the front and get a big piece. (2) OCEAN MIST picked up some confidence on the fair circuit; ready for more?

Race 5

(3) ESCAPE THE NEWS was stuck with an outside post against a superior foe in his last try versus NYSS foes. This looks like a winnable spot. (5) BET ON THE LAW rarely tosses in a poor effort. (1) POP COP is one half of a decent duo from the Coleman barn.

Race 6

(6) TRUE DESIRE drops down to a level that produced a 17-1 win in June. Don't overlook him at a price. (3) SPECULATIVE EDGE should flash early speed and work out a sweet trip. (4) WINBAK DIMENSIONS is another dropper; capable.

Race 7

(1) RIGHT ON TIME doesn't face the toughest field in the world and gets a drive change. (2) WARRAWEE MONARCH is clearly sharp. There are worse things than following a horse on a roll. (6) AUTOMATIC TELLER could get to the front. If so, he has a big shot.

Race 8

(1) HESTON BLUE CHIP held his own versus the top 3yos in the business. This spot should result in an easy win. (3) LIFEIMITTATESART came back from a 10 month absence and uncorked a monster score. (4) IDEAL ROMANCE has raced well at this level. (7) GABLE BLUE CHIP improved with Lasix.

Race 9

(1) RAYMOND J has speed, the rail and a weak field alongside. (2) FIVE ACROSS NICKEY is clear in form now and might be ready to step up. (3) WARWICK WARRIOR looks like a player on his best days.

Race 10

(8) SCREEN THE CALL returns to this class, where he has won his last two races. The eight-hole presents some issues but I'll stay here anyway. (3) JK PANACHE added Lasix and became a new horse; worth following. (7) LEGAL DREAM has speed and some form.

Race 11

(6) BET ON ROULETTE comes off a game win at Saratoga and gets my narrow call over (8) PANESTHETIC, who has plenty of gate speed and hails from a powerful barn. (1) EASTEND EDDIE took a shot and faded last week. He fits at this level.

Race 12

(5) SIR MELOS Z TAM is 3 for 4 in this series. (2) MOONLIGHT RANSOM is clearly racing well now. (1) ARTS DELIGHT has good speed and pylon position; hard to toss.

Race 13

(5) UPFRONT ELLIJAY ED drops way down and should take care of business. (6) FINN MAN rallied nicely at this level last week. (8) NIGHT TRAIN SHANE arrives from Pocono and seems like a fit. (9) ERICHS BEST returns to Tioga and faces slightly lesser.

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