05/11/2012 1:28PM

Tioga: Sunday 5/13 Analysis

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MEET STATS: 5 - 13 / $26.90

Best Bet: PARK AVENUE (7th)      Spot Play: KEYSTONE AUDREY (2nd )

Race 1

(5) MAXNIFIZENT gets a big driver change here to Dan Noble. I can see him moving this horse up a notch. (2) LEGAL DREAM had no chance in the Simpson. His prior start says he may have matured over the winter; bit threat. (1) TEDDY TRIFECTA has speed from the cones and was Bartlett’s choice over my pick.

Race 2

(7) KEYSTONE AUDREY has certainly been facing better foes and this barn is hot to start off the meet. (9) FLOWER BOUQUET looks like she could be the likely favorite, but she is getting a new driver and has post nine; mixed feelings. (1) IKES REVENGE chased in a fast mile last time.

Race 3

(6) STORYEUM raced evenly in his first start since last July. That race should have him tighter and this field is much easier. (2) ERAGON has been stuck with outside posts since coming back from winter vacation; could show more. (5) HAD TO BE ME is likely to leave and sit a good trip.

Race 4

(2) WINBAK DIMENSIONS needed last week’s start. I’d expect a lot more now. (4) COLOSSAL lured Bartlett off of a couple of others. (3) MAJIK MASTER should be gunning for the front.

Race 5

(5) BURL HANOVER raced well last week; narrow edge. (6) CHARLIE BEANS has been facing slightly tougher foes lately. (2) GENUINE STAR N appears to have found something after last week’s win. (3) SETON HALL is clearly sharp.

Race 6

(2) LOOKETTEJASPER tried to make an impossible wide move from last in his most recent race. I suspect he’ll be much closer to the action now. (7) BREAK EVEN gets a major driver change for the Burke barn. (3) IDEAL IKE can improve in his second start of the year.

Race 7

(7) PARK AVENUE displayed a bit of life last time and plunges in class. She can dominate this race. (3) TRUE DESIRE is coming off a big mile. (1) FINE FINE FINE has a chance to control the action or sit the pocket.

Race 8

(6) IDEAL SMILE been facing worlds tougher than today’s bunch. (1) FIRST LANDING had no chance from post eight. He’s got speed and the rail this week. (5) RAGING GRIN showed some improvement since becoming one of the rare free-legged pacers.

Race 9

(3) SAPPHIRE CITY draws inside some of his main rivals. Driver Tyler Buter should push away from the gate and secure a good trip. (5) FALL BLISS has won three straight and seems to have a nice nose for the wire. (2) VOICE OF TRUTH & (6) SHEER BRILLIANCE are both capable.

Race 10

(3) SAND SAVAGE finds an easier spot and looks like the clear choice. (2) MARKET DYNAMICS also drops down, but hasn’t won very often. (1) JOVIAL JESTER N can handle the rest.

Race 11

(8) DISTINCT COLOR really finds a softer spot today. My only concern is the outside post. (7) MIKEY WANTS MORE raced well off the bench and certainly merits a long look in this spot. (2) CARDS N MUSIC isn’t much, but none of these looks great on paper.

Race 12

(1) SHAKEY SLIM has speed and the rail; good combo in wide open race. (5) SPARE TIME CARL may have needed those first two starts and certainly was in a tough spot from outside posts. (3) SWINGING PETE gets Dan Noble in the bike.