08/30/2013 11:37AM

Tioga: Monday 9/2 Analysis

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Best Bet: CAPTAINTREACHEROUS (10th)

Spot play: THIN BLUE LINE (2nd)

Race 1

(3) RED FEATHER keeps it all in the family today by adding Brian Sears as the driver. Kim Sears trainee needed last week’s start and the mare can improve. (5) PRINCE PALANI also showed improvement upon arrival. (6) TOUGH ISSUE never got going as the favorite last out; shows more today?

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Race 2

(8) THIN BLUE LINE returns from Yonkers where he tired after an aggressive attempt; picking up Sears in this driver’s championship race can’t hurt. (4) UP FRONT DAN hails from Burke; must respect. (5) MIKEY WANTS MORE has been pretty sharp in his last three.

Race 3

(2) PASSIONATE TERROR bumped to this level last week and went evenly; perhaps the move inside will help his cause. (5) ERICHS BEST has been solid recently in claimers and he may be able to handle the hike in price. (6) NIGHT TRAIN SHANE has speed and back class.

Race 4

(5) AIR CURRENT flopped at Yonkers after tearing up the Western NY circuit; he’s back at a level he can handle. (4) PRINCE JUBILEE was overmatched at Pocono but his last local effort was good. (1) JACK FINN is a freshman who has hinted at ability; John Campbell drives.

Race 5 - Shady Daisy

(1) SHEBESTINGIN hit a bump in the road when she broke at Pocono and was far back in the Valley Forge. Filly had been hard to fault prior to that miscue, including a sizzling 1:49 effort over this surface in the Empire Breeders Classic. I would expect Sears to be making an early move to command from this spot and she should be tough to deny from there. (3) MS CAILA J FRA tightened cleanly in a morning prep after her game placing in the Miss NJ at The Meadowlands. Steve Elliott trainee has been ultra-consistent all season and she looks second best here. (2) SCANDALOUS HANOVER is perfect since entering the Casie Coleman barn. She gets her first big test today. (5) NIKKI BEACH has banked over 200K this season despite seemingly flying under the radar. She’s got speed and Ron Pierce at the controls.

Race 6

(2) ACE OF PACE is a mare facing the boys but she may simply be better than these. (3) ROCKY REGAL scored first-out off the claim and he looms a solid threat. (7) CHEYENNE KNIGHT has some back class but his current for is questionable.

Race 7

(3) GIDDY UP BLACKFLY picks up Pierce today and a repeat of his front-end effort two back at Yonkers may be enough to get the job done here. (7) INCOGNITO qualified nicely and may be flashing speed off the bench. (4) WINDSUM CALLUM held for a share last week in a fast mile.

Race 8

(7) FIRE YOUR GUNS jogged when last seen here at this level and followed that up with good efforts out of town; gelding looks good enough to overcome the outside post. (4) THAT’S JUSTICE was overmatched in the Open; he should be more competitive here. (6) SHEER BRILLIANCE looks classier than the rest.

Race 9

(7) VODKA IS TERROR has been facing better out of town with limited success. I’m considering him at a price and hope he has a pace to close into. (1) DIAMOND STAR finished well last week upon hiking to this level. (2) FLY AWAY beat this kind last out and stays in for the same tag.

Race 10 - Cane Pace

(1) CAPTAINTREACHEROUS arguably went the biggest mile of his stellar career last out in the Battle of the Brandywine, and it resulted in a loss. That bold uncovered effort truly showed how special this colt is, and I would fully expect him to start a new winning streak today. I expect Tetrick to make his move early to seize command, and once he relaxes on the front end it should be all gravy from there. (2) VEGAS VACATION is clearly the main threat to the ‘Captain’. The Casie Coleman trainee opened eyes with that 1:48 3/5 effort here last month and a repeat of that effort will get him close up late. From a tactical standpoint, it looks like Tetrick will get his revenge over Sears after that ‘battle’ in the Brandywine. (4) WORD POWER picks up Jamieson in the bike today, and he’s held his own against the top colts this season. (1A) WAKE UP PETER is no slouch, but he’s still looking for that first seasonal victory. That will be a tough task versus these.

Race 11

(8) BATHING BEAUTY is another mare racing against the boys that I’m selecting today. This one gets class relief and could be a price with the capable Austin Siegelman driving. (1) MR TOMMY FRA is erratic, but the ability is there. (9) FORWARD BLISS may be able to rally for a share.

Race 12

(3) MOVE ON is a grizzled veteran who has raced well in his last two local appearances. He’s got as good a shot as any in the finale. (9) RUSH RULES looks for four in a row and only needs to get involved early. (6) BLOW EM AWAY ships from Minnesota and could be a good fit here.

 

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