08/29/2014 10:24AM

Tioga: Monday 9/1 Analysis

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Best Bet: HE’S WATCHING (9th)

Race 1

(8) CASIANO was collared late after setting the pace last week, but has shown enough late grit to hit the board in her last three.  More than capable at this level, but she’ll have to work early to get involved. (6) CLASSIC AMERICAN earned minor checks in Excelsior-B events, recording a 1:54 2/5 mile in June.  Last week, he was a decent third off a pocket effort, chasing App Heaven in a 1:55 4/5 mile.  Should be sharper in his second start back. (3) FIVE CARD STUD sustained wide bids for a pair of second-place finishes in his last two races, and the three-year-old has enjoyed improved form in recent outings.  He continues to get just a bit better each week.

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Race 2

(2) T’S ELECTRIC sustained a wide bid to hold third last week at this level, toiling against tougher rivals in prior outings.  He’s at a competitive class, winning five back at this level, but can strike with a cozier stalking trip. (3) SPORTSMAN blew the doors open in a 1:51 3/5 effort last week against first-level foes, making a massive jump in class off that powerful effort.  While there’s some speed in the race, his :26 4/5 third quarter seemed only to give him more strength last week. (6) GIDDYALLYOUGOT stayed on for second-place finishes in his last three Monticello efforts, all at the $12.5k level.  He finds a stouter group today, but can prove a factor from a tracking or stalking role if the pace is contested.

Race 3

(1) CLASSIC MARTINE won her last three races, taking the Ima Lula final in 1:51 1/5 and just prevailing from the pocket at Philly in 1:52.  The 20-time winner took the Armbro Flight earlier in the season, as well as a Miss Versatility leg at Mohawk.  Current form is strongest of any. (2a) MAVEN is well established as a divisional leader, representing North America in the Elitloppet in May.  Since her return to this side of the Atlantic, it’s taken her a while to find her winning ways again.  Still, she’s the class of the field and is worthy of consideration off her Preferred win at Pocono last week. (2) D’ORSAY, also from the Jonas Czernyson stable, won her Armbro Flight elimination, since earning minor checks in tough fields off pressing and stalking trips.  Strong option if the pace is pressured.

Race 4

(6) PANFERMIN FESTIVAL was strong late in a third-place finish at this level last week, stepping up well from the first-level ranks with a 1:52 2/5 mile.  A clearer trip will be of great benefit. (4)TERRYS STAR DRAGON is in for the optional $7.5k tag, staying on for fourth at Vernon against similar foes last week in a strong 1:51 3/5 mile.  He beat similar foes locally four back, and is every bit capable with a strong dispatch or live cover. (1) GRITTY MILLIE BOY set the pace at this level two back, having just been collared in mid-stretch.  His more recent race saw a faster final time in a chasing effort, staying even behind Jones Beach from a midpack stalking trip.  Inside post should get him closer to the pace.

Race 5

(2) BRODY HANOVER pounced late for a 1:53 4/5 win at this level last week, hitting the board in three of his last four at the $5k class.  Strong form and the potential for a contested pace bode well for this 29-time winner. (1) SMELLTHECOLORNINE also brings strong recent form into today’s race, finishing ITM in his last three against $5k foes.  He’s definitely most comfortable when part of the early pace, but he’ll have to get the jump on #4, #6, and potentially #7 to secure a good spot. (4) MR TOMMY FRA won three of his last four at Monticello against just easier, sprinting home in :27 3/5 last week to just hold in a 1:55 1/5 win against $4k foes.  Likely to be prominent early, but he faces a stouter group.

Race 6

(4) BARBARIAN looks for back-to-back wins at this level, crossing from post 9 to clear and control the terms last out in a 1:53 1/5 score.  His midpack draw today is far cozier, and he’s in against familiar enough foes. (8) ON THE BIG SWING was collared late by Cabrera last week in a 1:53 3/5 mile, just missing Barbarian the week prior off a wide bid.  He’s capable from on the lead or in a pressing role, and the outside draw may only prove a slight obstacle with minimal pace in the race. (6) VISA VIPER consistently earns minor checks off strong deep closing rallies, winning three back when able to find better cover than in other efforts.  With the lack of pace pressure, he may only be able to muster a minor share, but is absolutely worth using in exotics given his late kick.

Race 7

(3) FANCY DESIRE chased older foes in her first start back off a six-week layoff, having won the Lynch at Pocono in June in 1:49 2/5.  Supplemental entry shows consistently good late kick. (6) TYRA was overmatched in recent PA Sire Stakes events, but fell victim to traffic trouble on more than one occasion.  This 8-time winner needs to be close to the pace for best results, and she’s no doubt capable. (4) ALSO ENCOURAGING was a strong chasing second in the Adioo Volo three back, rallying well from the second row for a 1:50 effort.  She shows consistently strong stalking-closing efforts, and can rally well off the corner to hit the ticket.

Race 8

(8) HURRICANE HOWARD has been a consistent force at the $15k level, hitting the board in his last six off forwardly-placed efforts.  He very well could clear from the outside, as he’s done in the past.  Current form leaves lots to like. (2) COOL LIKE FIRE stayed on well for second from the pocket last out at this level, having handled the rise in class well after a $7.5k win three back.  Inside draw should enable a close tracking trip. (1) JONES BEACH kept clear of Firethorn in a 1:52 win against second-level foes last week, but faces a stouter group today.  Past pressing-stalking efforts yielded decent finishes, so he could hit the ticket on the class rise by virtue of strong prior efforts.

Race 9 - Cane Pace

(6) HE’S WATCHING has been firing on all cylinders through the last two months, winning the Meadowlands Pace in stalking fashion and taking the Empire Breeders Classic while setting the pace.  His current form can’t be disputed.  Triple Crown favorite. (1) LUCK BE WITHYOU reeled off three straight wins at Pocono prior to his dead-heat second in the Milstein at Northfield, where he finished level with McWicked after enduring a first-over trip.  Lots to like off that strong effort; figures well in exactas. (5) JK ENDOFANERA won his Geers division in 1:50 1/5 two weeks ago, finishing second to He’s Watching in the Empire two back.  The North America Cup winner has found a stretch of trouble since his sixth-place Meadowlands Pace effort, but seems to be on the improve as of late.  Capable with the right circumstances.

Race 10

(6) WARRAWEE NEEDY makes his second start back off a two-month layoff, reeled in last week at Pocono after knocking heads with the top pacers in the sport through the spring.  Should be stronger in his second start back. (5) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY chased well in a 1:48 4/5 Pocono effort last out, just missing Luck Be Withyou in a :26 LQ.  Past efforts yielded minor shares against top Meadowlands pacers.  Capable enough. (7) FIREYOURGUNS failed to get involved from second-over last week, but hit the board in his seven prior starts against Open company throughout the state.  Don’t discount his effort from last week, as he kept even through the stretch

Race 11

(5) YANKEES IN SIX is best in a pressing-stalking role, as his closing kick was only enough to muster fifth last week from off excess cover.  He’s capable enough here, but will need to be kept closer to the pace before striking. (1) AMERICAN BULL won his last four Excelsior-B events in pacesetting fashion, but faces older company today.  A similar race at Vernon three back saw him overmatched in a 1:53 3/5 effort.  His inside post will serve well to keep him close. (4) WILDSVILLE debuts for Gaston Lareau after a strong run at the $5k level for Ken Andersen.  Consistent presser-stalker brings good form into the slight class rise.

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