05/11/2017 10:18AM

Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: St. Louie is in better form than it seems

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Belmont Park | Race 2 | Post Time 2:01 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

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Snag (#4) was installed as the clear morning-line favorite based largely on the perceived strength of his recent performance in the Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstream. While he was beaten only four lengths that day, turf races tend to bring fields together at the finish line, so I'm not sure that he was actually as competitive against a top turf runner like winner Sadler's Joy as some may think. His prior efforts make him just another contender in this race and nothing more. I expect him to be an underlay, and I don't fully trust Alasaal (#2) to get the distance.

I'm taking a shot with ST. LOUIE (#6).

I know that he looks a little cheap for this field, but I think he's in better form than it appears. He was completely stymied in traffic for the entire stretch drive two back, a race he very well may have won. Then, last time, he simply got the wrong ride, as he was inexplicably rated far off a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in PPs). I expect Kendrick Carmouche to have him placed closer to the pace, and Mike Maker has especially strong numbers in this situation. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he is 11 for 38 (29 percent) for a $3.41 ROI with horses going 10 furlongs or longer on turf at NYRA tracks.

THE PLAY

Win/Place: 6

Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7