10/26/2006 11:00PM

These Breeders' Cup longshots may surprise


PHOENIX - There's been a familiar refrain through nearly all of the previous Breeders' Cups: Bombs away!

Longshots have done exceedingly well, not so much because form takes a beating, but because you see animals of the highest quality being sent off at huge odds. There are those who only play big-priced horses on BC day, shooting for the big score, although I'm not quite that cavalier.

Here's a quick look at horses who may provide some fireworks. I'm not necessarily saying they will win, but even if these horses hit the board, the trifectas and superfectas should pay through the roof.

Juvenile Fillies - Enchanting Star was sent off at 47-1 in the Grade 1 Frizette off a game maiden win at Delaware Park. A daughter of Deputy Minister, she broke slowly from the rail, made a strong run on the far turn, swung out, and kept on gamely. The Frizette was awfully slow, but the field for the Juvenile Fillies is not that strong, and it could be that she's ready to turn the corner.

Juvenile - Pegasus Wind is a son of Kentucky Derby hero Fusaichi Pegasus, so that automatically got him noticed. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas thought enough of Pegasus Wind to run him in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor in his debut, and he finished fifth. He came back with a seven-length maiden score before finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Hopeful. He bounced back with a fine third in the Grade 1 Champagne when he was in the battle all the way. He's got speed and appears to be getting things figured out.

Filly and Mare Turf - Germance didn't exactly dazzle with her fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II. Her connections said she had trouble racing on a left-handed course. With that race behind her and a more suitable distance Saturday, she should run better.

Sprint - Too Much Bling hasn't run since he scored a smart win in the Grade 2 Carry Back at Calder on July 15, but trainer Bob Baffert has said the layoff has been by design. Too Much Bling is enormously talented, and reminds me quite a bit of Swept Overboard. Fellow 3-year-old Henny Hughes figures to go favored here, but there's no guarantee that he's any better than Too Much Bling, and the price difference should be substantial.

Mile - John Gosden is no dummy. Having trained in the U.S. for many years, he knows what it takes to win here, and now that he plies his trade in England, he knows the competition there. So it speaks volumes that he is ready to send up-and-coming Sleeping Indian in the Mile. A smart win in the Group 2 Challenge in England a couple of weeks ago convinced Gosden that Sleeping Indian was in peak form.

Distaff - I know the prevailing thought is that Asi Siempre's Grade 1 Spinster win was influenced by the Polytrack. That may well be true, but there's another side - what if she's simply turned the corner, a la Pleasant Home in this race last year? What if she really wanted dirt all the while? With so many pooh-poohing her Spinster win because of the Polytrack question, her price figures to stay lofty.

Turf - I've written about Red Rocks in previous columns, but will outline again why he is a very interesting play here. He has received no publicity, and all he did earlier this summer was finish second to Rail Link in a Group 1 race in France. Rail Link promptly came back a few weeks ago to win the Group 1 Arc, beating such monsters as Pride, who came back to win the Group 1 Champion Stakes; Deep Impact, a legend in Japan; Hurricane Run, the 2005 Arc winner; and Shirocco, the 2005 BC Turf victor. And Red Rocks will still be ignored some at the windows.

Classic - Okay, don't laugh. He has been a disappointment to those who want to see the Derby winners go on to accomplish great things, but Giacomo does have some things going for him here. First, his greatest moment came on this track at this trip. Second, what if, for the sake of argument, Bernardini, Lava Man, Invasor, George Washington, and others decide to go at it hot and heavy early? It wouldn't be a shock if some or most of those fell away, leaving the supporting exotics spots ripe for the plucking by some closer like Giacomo. And, third, his odds figure to be huge, just like they were the first Saturday in May 2005.