11/29/2012 2:24PM

Tampa Babies for Dec. 1: Sandpiper Stakes Picks and Analysis

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Race 7
6 Furlongs
Sandpiper Stakes
2-year-old fillies
Purse $75,000

ANALYSIS:

1. BAMA ROSE (Pomeroy - Fine Wine) sold for $18,000 as a yearling and was purchased for $32,000 in April after breezing two furlongs in 21.2 seconds. She is by Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes and Grade 1 Forego Stakes winner Pomeroy (7-18, 845K, 2-4 at two, 7-13 sprinting), a sire that is 45-261 (17%) with juveniles. The winning dam (4-17, 71K, 1-3 at two, 2-10 sprinting) has foaled nine winners from nine runners (5-8 with 2yos, 8-9 with sprinters). This is the female family of multiple stakes-winner Neat 'n Sweet (10-68, 78K, 4-17 at two) and multiple stakes-winning juvenile Dixie Wind (6-40, 65K, 4-15 at two). Trainer William Kaplan is 1-4 (25%, $0.85 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going turf to dirt and route to sprint. Should get some pace to attack in this spot and there is some speed in the pedigree. May be best utilized on the bottom of exotic wagers.

2. OVER THE COUNTER (Majestic Warrior - Pontook), foaled in Indiana, sold for $130,000 in April after breezing two furlongs in 21 seconds. The first-crop sire won the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes sprinting at two (2-7, 239K, 2-3 at two, 2-4 sprinting) and is 20-164 (12%) with juveniles. The dam was a sprint winner in the mud (1-3, 8K, 1-3 sprinting, cost $45,000 at two) and has foaled four winners from four runners (1-2 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Mexican stakes-winning juvenile Cinefila (5-13, 47K, 4-4 at two, 5-12 sprinting), stakes-winning router Lookin Like a Lady (2-14, 51K, 0-3 at two, 0-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Takeagiantstep (5-28, 29K, 1-4 at two, 5-26 sprinting). Trainer Terri Pompay is 1-2 (50%, $8.80 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile sprinters returning from 31-60 day layoffs in non-graded dirt stakes (1-2, 50%, $8.80 ROI at Tampa). Pompay won this race last year with Quick Flip, and Over the Counter might receive an excellent pace scenario. Finished third in a weak field of Indiana-breds on October 6 (winner returned to finish sixth, beaten 28 lengths with a 13 Beyer in an Indiana-bred route) and needs a Beyer boost to contend for win honors.

3. VITAMETA (Street Sense - Emery Board) is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Secret File (3-11, 125K, 0-4 sprinting) by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes winner Street Sense (6-13, 4.3M, 2-5 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 23-161 (14%) with juveniles. The dam was a stakes-winning router (4-12, 158K, 0-1 at two, cost 250K as yearling) and has foaled four winners from five runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Once a Sailor (9-29, 276K, 0-1 at two, 8-25 sprinting), Grade 3 route winner Chilito (4-17, 210K, 2-4 at two, 2-7 sprinting) and stakes-placed Embraceable (2-5, 64K, 2-3 sprinting). Trainer David Fawkes is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile sprinters returning from 31-60 day layoffs in non-graded dirt stakes. Lone defeat came against the talented Kauai Katie, and Vitameta defeated a solid field of allowance horses most recently at Calder. Must deal with other speeds, but can't be discounted.

4. CINDYS CASINO (Strong Contender - Tribal Run) is by Grade 2 Super Derby and Grade 2 Dwyer Stakes winner Strong Contender (4-8, 618K, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 11-96 (11%) with juveniles. The unraced dam (cost 50K at two) has foaled four winners from four runners (4-4 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters in North America). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Clandestine (3-8, 64K, 2-5 sprinting). Trainer William Downing is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles following a trainer switch (0-2 at Tampa). Toss the recent loss at Calder as she had a tough trip on turf. Lone sprint win came by almost nine lengths, but will be tested for class in this spot.

5. R FREE ROLL (Rockport Harbor - Jewels N Gems) is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter R Bling (4-15, 72K, 1-5 at two, 4-15 sprinting) by Grade 2 Remsen Stakes winner Rockport Harbor (5-8, 324K, 4-4 at two, 2-2 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 60-444 (14%) with juveniles. The multiple stakes-winning dam (9-24, 274K, 2-3 at two, 7-16 sprinting) has foaled three winners from three runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). The third dam is stakes-winning sprinter Saratoga Sizzle (4-21, 137K, 1-5 at two, 4-19 sprinting). Trainer Kirk Ziadie is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile sprinters in non-graded dirt stakes. Speedy filly tired very badly when stretched to seven furlongs at Calder on November 10. The slight cutback in distance should work to her favor and she’ll be forwardly-placed from the get-go. May have to deal with Vitameta early, but contends with her best effort.

6. COR COR (Smoke Glacken - Babe's Flair), foaled in Florida, sold for $42,000 as a yearling, was bought back for $92,000 in March after breezing two furlongs in 21.2 seconds and was purchased for $40,000 in June after breezing two furlongs in 21 seconds. She is by a sire that won the Grade 1 Hopeful at two (10-14, 759K, 4-6 at two, 9-10 sprinting) and is 224-1242 (18%) with juveniles. The dam placed sprinting (0-11, 5K, 0-8 sprinting) and has foaled three winners from six runners (2-6 with 2yos, 3-6 with sprinters). The second dam is three-time Grade 3 winner Meafara (Columbia Stakes, Vernon O. Underwood Stakes, Chicago Handicap, 10-17, 838K, 2-2 at two, 9-15 sprinting). Trainer Joan Scott is 1-1 (100%, $7.20 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles following a debut maiden win (1-1, 100%, $7.20 ROI at Tampa). Scott won the Sandpiper in 2008 with Keeneland maiden winner Dr. Zic, and Cor Cor took a key race over the polytrack on October 11 (the runner-up returned to graduate at Churchill with a 73 Beyer). Shows fast workouts leading up to this event. Expect a good effort.

7. CRUMB (Graeme Hall - Legendary Hit) is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Cher Ami (7-17, 243K, 1-2 at two, 5-12 sprinting) by three-time Grade 2 winner Graeme Hall (Arkansas Derby, Jim Dandy Stakes, Eclipse Stakes, 7-22, 1.1M, 1-5 at two, 2-5 sprinting), a stallion that is 72-431 (17%) with juveniles. The unraced dam has foaled six winners from nine runners (3-6 with 2yos, 4-7 with sprinters). This is the female family of stakes-winner Well Hit (7-59, 91K, 3-11 at two) and stakes-winner Hard Hit (19-84, 158K, 2-4 at two, 9-39 sprinting). Trainer Larry Bates is 1-2 (50%, $6.20 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile sprinters in non-graded dirt stakes. Defeated R Free Roll at Calder, but didn't change leads in the stretch and may have been aided by the additional furlong. A repeat of that speed figure certainly puts her in the hunt.

8. REEL GOOD MOVIE (Silent Name - Feel Good Movie) is by Grade 2 Arcadia Handicap and Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes winner Silent Name (6-23, 663K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 12-122 (10%) with juveniles. The dam was placed sprinting at two (0-3, 9K, cost 20K as yearling) and this is her first starter. The second dam is stakes-placed juvenile Smart Angel (2-10, 135K, 2-6 at two, 2-7 sprinting). Trainer John Simms is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles. Rallied for third when dismissed at 49-1 odds in her debut over the Woodbine polytrack. This is a much-tougher spot.

SELECTIONS:
1. R Free Roll
2. Crumb
3. Cor Cor

THE PLAY:
R Free Roll - Crumb EXACTA
R Free Roll - Cor Cor EXACTA