Tampa Babies for Dec. 1: Inaugural Stakes Picks and Analysis

Race 4
6 Furlongs
Inaugural Stakes
2-year-olds
Purse $75,000

ANALYSIS:

1. TONY TILE (Wagon Limit - Alarmada) is by a sire that won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup (6-20, 992K, 1-3 sprinting) and is 26-220 (12%) with juveniles. The dam was a winner (9-38, 237K, 1-5 at two, 2-9 sprinting, cost 11K at two) and has foaled six winners from seven runners (3-6 with 2yos, 4-6 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Watchfull (4-12, 143K, 3-4 at two, 4-12 sprinting), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Rose Bay (1-7, 49K, 1-5 at two, 1-7 sprinting), stakes-winning sprinter Sweet Sixteen (3-5, 75K, 2-4 sprinting) and juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Hermione's Magic (3-11, 151K, 1-5 at two, 3-10 sprinting). Trainer Dana Vacca is 1-13 (8%, $2.69 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles (0-3 at Tampa). Whipped a weak group at Suffolk Downs most recently and takes a huge step up in class.

2. CHARMING CHARLIE (Bwana Charlie - Swinging Maria), sold for $1,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes winner Bwana Charlie (4-19, 388K, 0-5 at two, 3-15 sprinting), a stallion that is 48-307 (16%) with juveniles. The dam won sprinting (4-13, 82K, 4-13 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Got That Swing (7-63, 168K, 5-49 sprinting), Grade 3 route winner S. S. Stone (5-10, 154K, 1-2 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Precious Duke (6-27, 102K, 0-2 at two, 5-26 sprinting). Trainer Adam Rice is 1-2 (50%, $2.30 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles following a trainer switch. Charming Charlie was listed as racing “without shoes” for his most recent start at Keeneland and ran an improved race, placing at 40-1 after making the lead in the stretch. Still, he is a maiden tackling winners in his first attempt on dirt and may be in a bit too tough.

3. CAPITAL CITY (City Place - Jr. T) sold for $14,000 as a yearling and is by an unraced stallion that is 44-246 (18%) with juveniles. The unraced dam has foaled four winners from five runners (1-4 with 2yos, 3-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Shock Me (2-18, 33K, 0-1 sprinting), stakes-winner Faygo (6-28, 119K, 1-3 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Circuit Breaker (4-22, 163K, 0-2 at two, 4-19 sprinting). Trainer David Fawkes is 4-18 (22%, $2.35 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile sprinters in non-graded dirt stakes (0-2 at Tampa). Capital City was hustled to make the early lead in his most recent start at Calder and shrugged off two pace rivals en route to the victory. He was drifting out slightly during the stretch run and now must prove his mettle at six furlongs against tougher. He has shown the ability to rate and finish and is a legitimate alternative to the favorite.

4. BRAVE DAVE (Put It Back - Sing That Song) is by Grade 2 Riva Ridge Stakes winner Put It Back (5-7, 232K, 0-2 at two, 5-7 sprinting), a stallion that is 139-753 (18%) with juveniles. The dam was placed (0-12, 19K, 0-2 at two, 0-7 sprinting, cost 150K at two) and has foaled three winners from three runners (3-3 with 2yos, 3-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Mighty David (10-48, 317K, 4-9 at two, 10-45 sprinting), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Amazer (1-7, 61K, 1-5 at two, 1-7 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-placed router Lily's Hope (2-12, 111K, 1-5 at two, 2-8 sprinting), and is a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bee Cee Cee (3-19, 180K, 2-6 at two, 3-17 sprinting). Trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. is 8-36 (22%, $1.61 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in non-graded dirt sprint stakes (0-2 at Tampa). The logical favorite staggered home his final eighth in 14.53 when winning the Jack Price Juvenile at Calder (slower final time than the filly division), but should appreciate cutting back in distance and may simply be too fast for these in the early stages.

5. FALLING SKY (Lion Heart - Sea Dragoness) sold for $16,000 as a weanling and is by Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity and Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Lion Heart (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 132-829 (16%) with juveniles. The dam was multiple stakes-placed at two (2-9, 53K, 2-6 at two, 2-8 sprinting, cost 9.5K as yearling) and has foaled five winners from five runners (2-4 with 2yos, 5-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter War Native (3-12, 96K, 2-4 at two, 3-9 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner All Giving (14-46, 588K, 0-3 at two, 11-36 sprinting). Trainer Antonio Sano is 1-2 (50%, $4.70 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles following maiden victories. Took money for his debut and looked good winning by four with a solid number. Draws a good post outside some of the speeds and isn't out of this under Daniel Centeno.

6. PURPLE EGG (Lion Heart - Luminous Prize) sold for $21,000 as a weanling and for $22,000 as a yearling. He is by Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity and Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Lion Heart (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 132-829 (16%) with juveniles. The dam was stakes-placed on turf (4-20, 167K, 0-1 sprinting, cost 55K as yearling) and has foaled four winners from six runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters in North America). The dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winning juvenile Surprized (8-42, 357K, 3-6 at two, 3-7 sprinting). Raced on the more favorable outer paths at Parx on September 15 en route to an allowance score (the last-place finisher returned to win a $10,000, 'n3x' claimer at Charles Town with a 52 Beyer). Trainer Jane Cibelli is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile sprinters in non-graded dirt stakes. Gets the toughest test of his short career, but hasn't done anything wrong, and may work out a good stalking trip while clear of traffic.

SELECTIONS:
1. Capital City
2. Brave Dave
3. Falling Sky

THE PLAY:
Capital City to WIN at 5-2 odds or greater