04/13/2005 11:00PM

Sun King lone single in Premier Pick 4 bet

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Bill Denver/EquiPhoto
Sir Shackleton is one of three major players in the Commonwealth BC at Keeneland.

OZONE PARK, N.Y. - For bettors playing Saturday's Premier Pick 4, here is an overview in sequence order:

Instant Racing BC: Four in here have surpassed a Beyer Speed Figure of 70, and someone among the quartet of She Sings, Tizzy Girl, Kota, and Diboll Dilly will probably win, but none is without flaws.

She Sings, the lone entrant with two Beyers in the 80's, drops out of a slow-paced renewal of the Santa Anita Oaks in which the middle fractions of 48.50 seconds and 1:14.05 were well off the 47.08 and 1:12.65 splits that lowly $10,000 filly-mare claiming routers ran earlier on the card. She Sings's two victories came on wet tracks with a clear lead.

Tizzy Girl might be the most talented among these, judging from two sprint wins by a combined 11 lengths to begin her career, including a field-topping 89 Beyer. The potential drawback is a 289 Tomlinson distance rating, by far the lowest in the field.

Diboll Dilly jumped up to win her maiden when stretched to this distance second time out, taking a clear lead into the first turn, yielding the front, and driving to the lead when taken off the rail turning for home. She is light on experience and drawn wide.

The consistent Kota has run in six straight stakes and received Beyers of 77 or 78 without fail. Her third-place finish in the Martha Washington was against the grain of a speed-favoring track. The five two-turn races on that track that day all went to horses that led or dueled early; compounding her disadvantage was the short stretch of mile races at Oaklawn, where the sixteenth pole serves as the finish.

Worrisome, though, is a 38-day gap from that race to Kota's next published workout, on April 1, which was a very slow work at that.

Commonwealth BC: The deepest sprint of the year for older males thus far. Economics require the exclusion of Gators N Bears (1 for 9 in graded stakes since the fall of 2003); Silver Wagon (one win since the Hopeful as a juvenile); Gold Storm (no experience past six furlongs); and the well-traveled Clock Stopper (0 for 8 in graded stakes since the fall of 2003).

That leaves Sir Shackleton and Lion Tamer, one-two in track-record time in the Richter Scale at Gulfstream last month, and Cajun Beat.

Sir Shackleton is 3 for 3 at seven furlongs, including a then-top Beyer third time out last spring at Keeneland. His development line is solid, better than ever before in his two starts at 4, and he is back at Keeneland for the third start of a form cycle again.

Lion Tamer had a right to be short first time out since last fall's Cigar Mile upset. Note that he paired up then-top figures of 105 in his second and third starts back from a layoff last spring, including a win in this race.

Cajun Beat has been made over into a closer since coming back from Dubai last year and being transferred to Bobby Frankel. His even-trip sixth first-time out this year in the Kilroe Mile - to date the toughest grass race of the year - is forgivable.

: One would think the wraps are coming off Sun King, who was relegated to second on Daily Racing Form's Derby Watch after stablemate Bellamy Road's tour de force Wood romp. Sun King has oozed quality since last fall, and hinted at what may lie in store by running a 104 Beyer first-time out at 3, beating Gotham winner Survivalist and Illinois Derby runner-up Monarch Lane like breaking sticks. Then came what was essentially a public workout in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Recall that third time out last year, the Nick Zito-trained The Cliff's Edge came from far back to win the Blue Grass with a 111 Beyer that was a 21-point improvement off his previous race, and 10 points better than his previous top. No one should be surprised if Sun King runs a 110 or better in this spot.

I'm excluding Consolidator and High Limit, each of whom come off bias-aided wins that earned them new Beyer tops of 105.

The West Coast contingent is weak this year, and I have no faith in Consolidator's ability to run his last race right back.

If Frankel's midweek quote - "We're going to learn whether he can sit off horses or not" - is to be believed, High Limit is going to rate, and I can see him falling into third along the inside, just off a duel between Spanish Chestnut - who has led in all five route starts - and Consolidator. High Limit is on the same schedule as Frankel's 2003 Blue Grass winner, Peace Rules, whose seasonal bow, like High Limit's, was also a Louisiana Derby score with a 105 Beyer.

: This is a treacherous affair in which all except Afleet Alex are coming off new Beyer tops, and Afleet Alex's last race, his second straight in new front bandages, was shockingly bad at odds-on. Moreover, Greater Good, 4 for 4 in two-turn stakes, is marooned on the far outside.

Among the potential bust-outs is Rush Bay, a big, long-striding colt whose first start in blinkers was a win with a Beyer of 89 that slightly surpassed his 2-year-old top of 88 - a strong indicator of an impending forward move, particularly in view of Rush Bay's 15-point development in third race of his prior form cycle last fall.

The play - 4x3x1x???

Use as many as you can afford in the Arkansas Derby.