08/01/2006 11:00PM

Spa Babies for Thursday, August 3

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Welcome to Spa Babies! Saratoga is famous for its top-notch racing for two-year-olds so I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden race at the meet in the hope of finding a winner, and perhaps, a future star.

Week 1 at Saratoga was a bit of a mixed bag for "Spa Babies." Here are the numbers:

Starts - Wins - Top pick in money -(Profit/Loss based on $2 wager)
12-1-8 (+$40.90)

Thanks to Distinct Pleasure's victory at 14-1 on Thursday, and Somethingaboutyou's runner-up finish the day before at 40-1, the selections ended up in the black. Let's do better this week!

Thursday, August 3, 2006

Race 2
5 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies

1. Hatta Flower (Dixie Union - Basking, by Alydar)
Foal date: February 28, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $150,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005)
Notable siblings: Dehere of the Dog (21-3-1-4, $63,569, stakes-placed, all wins sprinting, 0-1 at 2), Sunray Spirit (14-4-3-1, $201,103, Grade 3 sprint winner at 2.
Sire's race record: 12-7-3-0, $1,233,190, multiple Grade 1 winner, 5-7 at 2, debut winner
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 5-67 (7%)
Dam's race record: 6-0-0-0, $0, unraced at 2.
Dam's production record: 5 foals, 4 runners, 3 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner,
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 15-90 (17%), $1.28 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters in dirt sprints with Lasix: 15-86 (17%), $1.34 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 2-8 (25%), $1.14 ROI
Family facts: Dam sold for $275,000 as a yearling. Dam a half to Adorable Slew (16-4-3-1, $73,157, stakes-placed, unraced at 2). Second dam was stakes-placed.
Workout analysis: None

2. Seaside Affair (Sea of Secrets - Lucky Lady Dancer, by Gate Dancer)
Foal date: April 14, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $9,500 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2005), private purchase after first start.
Notable siblings: Devil Dancing (27-8-6-4, $228,724, multiple stakes-placed, unraced at 2), Hammerin (49-7-4-11, $83,660, multiple stakes-winner, unraced at 2), Tuff Justice (11-2-2-1, $56,274, stakes-winning 2yo sprinter).
Sire's race record: 10-4-0-2, $155,757, Grade 2 sprint winner, 2-2 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 37-246 (15%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: 8 foals, 7 runners, 6 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 30-133 (23%), $1.78 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles in dirt sprints off 31-60 day layoff with Lasix and without blinkers coming off a trainer switch: 1-3 (33%), $4.33 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 1-7 (14%), $1.86 ROI
Family facts: Dam a half to Sharpened Luck (104-20-20-18, $195,079, stakes-winner, unraced at 2), and Conveyor (61-15-9-6, $827,498, Grade 1 route winner, 0-5 at 2). Second dam was multiple stakes-winner. Third dam was multiple stakes-placed at 2. Fourth dam was 2yo stakes-winner in Australia.
Workout analysis: None

3. Tale of the Queen (Tale of the Cat - Queen Inca, by Capote)
Foal date: May 3, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 9-5-1-2, $360,900, Grade 2 sprint winner, unraced at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 36-177 (20%)
Dam's race record: 11-0-1-1, $9,234, 0-5 at 2.
Dam's production record: 5 foals 3 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 0-5
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile fiorsters on dirt with Lasix: 0-4
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-4
Family facts: Dam a half to Catinca (20-9-5-4, $864,775, Grade 1 route winner, 0-1 at 2). Third dam a multiple stakes-winner. Fourth dam a multiple stakes-winner.
Workout analysis: July 28 workout matches barn's 3yo filly Swinging Maria (80 dirt Beyer). July 28 workout went .11 seconds faster than barn's 3yo Bird Mountain (57 dirt Beyer).
Several workouts match unraced 2yo filly Infield Lake (Smoke Glacken - Fairway Meadow, by Meadowlake, bred by Marylou Whitney Stables). June 30 workout matches unraced 2yo filly Easy Start (Jump Start - Never Faulty, by Faltaat, bred by Marylou Whitney Stables). June 30 work went .10 faster than Swinging Maria, and .10 faster than barn's 3yo Bird Charm (finished fourth in July 31 N1x allowance at Suffolk with 50 Beyer).

4. Miss Tizzy (Cee's Tizzy - Marquise Miss, by Marquetry)
Foal date: March 19, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: $75,000 juvenile (Adena Springs March 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 7-3-1-1, $173,254, Grade 1-placed routing, unraced at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 9-116 (8%)
Dam's race record: 26-5-5-3, $144,446, stakes-placed, 0-2 at 2.
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 1 runner, 1 winner, 0 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 1-20 (5%), $1.03
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters in dirt sprints without Lasix: 1-17 (6%), $1.21 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-6
Family facts: Third dam was multiple stakes-placed.
Workout analysis: None

5. Noworriesforme (El Corredor - Worry Not, by Concern)
Foal date: January 16, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $110,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2005), out yearling (Keeneland September 2005).
Notable siblings: Sir Greeley (19-7-3-0, $364,551, Grade 3 winner, unraced at 2).
Sire's race record: 10-7-1-0, $727,920, Grade 1 winner at mile, 1-2 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 5-41 (12%)
Dam's race record: 6-1-0-0, won routing, unraced at 2.
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 1 runner, 1 winner, 0 juvenile runners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 2-22 (9%), $1.99 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters in dirt sprints without Lasix: 2-14 (14%), $3.22 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 1-8 (13%), $0.85 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $77,000 as a short yearling. Dam a half to Brush Over (9-6-1-0, $120,631, multiple stakes-winner, 0-1 at 2), Brushed On (39-11-8-7, $424,513, multiple Grade 3-placed sprinter, 2-9 at 2), and Singular Broad (7-1-2-1, $26,160, stakes-placed sprinter, 1-4 at 2).
Workout analysis: None

6. Cherokee Sheik (Cherokee Run - Glory Way, by Woodman)
Foal date: February 29, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $80,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $440,000 juvenile (OBS March 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 28-13-5-5, $1,531,818, Grade 1 sprint winner, 5-7 at 2, won debut
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 122-764 (16%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: 3 foals, 3 runners, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 71-520 (14%), $1.15 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles in dirt sprints with Lasix and blinkers: 0-3
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 11-95 (12%), $1.18 ROI
Family facts: Dam half to Supremo (7-2-2-1, $228,250, Grade 2 winner routing at 2), and Personal Love (multiple stakes-winner in Germany). Third dam was a Grade 1 winner. Family of Dynaformer. Cherokee Run - Woodman 'nick' produced multiple stakes-winner Dover Dere.
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in a bullet 10 seconds flat prior to the March sale.

7. Isle Capote (Capote - Isleworth, by Mt. Livermore)
Foal date: March 1, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $22,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $55,000 RNA juvenile (Barretts May 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 10-3-0-1, $714,470, multiple Grade 1 route winner at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 48-364 (13%)
Dam's race record: 7-1-0-0, $12,755, won sprinting, unraced at 2.
Dam's production record: 6 foals, 5 runners, 3 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 1-14 (7%), $0.84 ROI*
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters in dirt sprint with Lasix: 1-10 (10%), $1.18 ROI*
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 1-3 (33%), $3.93 ROI*
Family facts: Dam half to Diamond Sunjet (54-11-8-5, $132,187, stakes-winning sprinter, 2yo debut winner), Thinkernot (34-4-5-7, $154,957, Grade 3-placed 2yo), Wekiva Springs (21-10-4-2, $1,512,575, multiple Grade 1 winning router, 1-2 at 2), and Indomable (153-14-21-25, $190,799, stakes-placed 2yo).
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the May sale. Several workouts match unraced 2yo filly Miss Atlantic (Stormy Atlantic - Gan's Girl, by Prospector's Music).
*Trainer is assistant to suspended Steve Asmussen, a top debut trainer.

8. Dance Band (Storm Cat - Ho Baby, by Gilded Time)
Foal date: May 18, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 8-4-3-0, $570,610, Grade 1 winner at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 256-1034 (25%)
Dam's race record: 19-5-5-5, $134,183, multiple stakes-placed, unraced at 2.
Dam's production record: 3 foals, 3 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 97-790 (12%), $1.02 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles in dirt sprints without Lasix and with blinkers: 9-90 (10%), $0.73 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 15-141 (11%), $0.94 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $105,000 as a yearling. Dam half to Grafton (40-10-6-4, $203,254, multiple stakes-placed sprinter, unraced at 2).
Workout analysis: July 24 workout went .02 seconds slower than barn's 3yo filly Fast Deal (82 Beyer top).

Analysis:

SEASIDE AFFAIR made a bold wide move over a speed-favoring track when finishing ahead of a pair of next-out winners in her career debut. The winner of that race returned to narrowly miss in the Grade 3 Debutante at Churchill Downs. Now with Frankel, this filly looks like she's found a good spot. CHEROKEE SHEIK worked very well at the training sale, but showed up with blinkers for her career debut, and failed to factor despite racing on a good rail. Note the slow workout on July 31. HATTA FLOWER shows some solid moves for career debut, and the dam has thrown some good runners. DANCE BAND showed speed at Churchill, and may be part of the pace picture once again. TALE OF THE QUEEN is by a fine win-early sire.

The Bet: Seaside Affair - Cherokee Sheik exacta, and a Seaside Affair - Hatta Flower exacta.