08/22/2006 11:00PM

Spa Babies for Thursday

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Welcome to Spa Babies! Saratoga is famous for its top-notch racing for two-year-olds so I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden race at the meet in the hope of finding a winner, and perhaps, a future star.

If a selection goes off between 2-1 and 7-2 odds, he will be bet to Win. If the selection goes off at 4-1 or longer, he will be bet to Win and Place. Anything under 2-1 will not be played.

Thursday, August 24, 2006
Race 2
6 Furlongs
Allowance (New York Breds)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

LAURENTIDE ICE drew away as a much the best winner of her career debut, and showcased excellent tactical speed that day. She shouldn't be too far off the pacein this spot, and looms a dangerous threat. BECKY'S FLUTE rode an outside bias to victory in her well-bet debut, then was thrown to the wolves in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. Drops back in with statebredshere, and should receive a nice stalking trip while racing in the clear. MYSTERIOUS KEY nipped open maidens at Finger Lakes, and could be up on the pace in this spot. WIN WITH A WINK took all the money for career debut at Belmont before overcoming an awkward beginning. Mott's barn is chock-full of good 2-year-olds this year. DISTINCT PLEASURE showed a great deal of professionalism in career debut for underrated barn. Interesting that Castellano departs for first-time dirt runner ACQUIRED CAT.

The Bet: Laurentide Ice

Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
Purse $48,000.

1. Stopbluffing (Pine Bluff - Shortstop, by Allen's Prospect)
Trainer: Del Carroll II
Foal date: January 14, 2004
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 13-6-1-3, $2,255,884, Grade 1 route winner, 3-7 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 19-183 (10%)
Sire's win percentage with first-time turfers: 20-197 (10%)
Dam's race record: 5-1-1-0, $23,180, all races sprinting on dirt.
Dam's production record: This is her first foal
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 1-19 (5%), $1.66 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in statebred maiden special weight turf route:
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 1-5 (20%), $6.32 ROI
Family facts: Dam half to Meadow Flyer (2-1-1-0, $25,439, stakes-placed sprinting at 2, won debut), and Shortpoint (12-3-2-2, $80,520, multiple stakes-placed sprinting). Second dam was Grade 3 winner.
Workout analysis: August 19, July 20 workouts match mate Tee With the Tiger. August 13 work went .02 slower than Tee With the Tiger. August 7 work went .05 slower than Tee With the Tiger. July 14 work went .02 slower than Tee With the Tiger. July 8 work went .02 slower than Tee With the Tiger. Several works match unraced 2yo Golden Amulet (Gold Token - Tallulah Darling, by Loustrous Bid).

1a. Tee With the Tiger (Defere - Sandy Lass, by Line In The Sand)
Trainer: Del Carroll II
Foal date: February 29, 2004
Auction history: $10,000 yearling (New York August 2005), $24,000 juvenile (OBS April 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 5-3-1-1, $65,300, stakes-placed sprinter.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 16-105 (15%)
Sire's win percentage with first-time turfers: 5-70 (7%)
Dam's race record: 41-11-5-5, $120,767, all wins sprinting on dirt, 0-1 on turf, 2-7 at 2.
Dam's production record: This is her first foal
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 1-19 (5%), $1.66 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in statebred maiden special weight turf route:
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 1-5 (20%), $6.32 ROI
Family facts: Dam a half to One Wild Lad (67-13-12-8, $236,835, stakes-placed, 1-7 on turf, 1-3 at 2).
Workout analysis: Worked 2 furlongs in 23.20 prior to the April sale. August 19, July 20 workouts match mate Stopbluffing. August 13 work went .02 faster than mate Stopbluffing. August 7 work went .05 faster than Stopbluffing. July 14 work went .02 faster than Stopbluffing. July 8 work went .02 faster than Stopbluffing. July 31 work went .02 slower than barn's 3yo D Money (61 turf Beyer, won 25K claimer on dirt on August 13 with 82 Beyer).

2. Good Prospect (Good and Tough - Herb's Prospect, by Claim)
Trainer: Leah Gyarmati
Foal date: April 5, 2004
Auction history: $1,200 yearling (New York August 2005)
Notable siblings: Nun On the Run (41-12-9-3, $152,810, stakes-placed, all wins on turf, won turf debut, 0-1 at 2).
Sire's race record: 23-9-5-2, $809,341, Grade 2 sprint winner.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 33-191 (17%)
Sire's win percentage with first-time turfers: 4-37 (11%)
Dam's race record: 22-2-5-4, $28,631, both wins routing on dirt, 0-4 on turf, 0-4 at 2.
Dam's production record: 7 foals, 7 runners, 4 winners, 3 turf runners, 1 turf winner, 1 first-turf winner, 4 juvenile runners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 6-116 (5%), $1.89 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in second off layoff without Lasix and blinkers in statebred maiden special weight turf route: None
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 1-18 (6%), $2.22 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $37,000 as a weanling, $13,000 as a yearling, and $20,000 as a juvenile. Dam half to Manguin (stakes-winner on turf in France), Amelie Pleasures (stakes-placed on turf in France), and Our Account (Group 3 winner on turf in France).
Workout analysis: None

3. Shifter (Vicar - Mime, by Cure the Blues)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Foal date: April 13, 2004
Auction history: Out yearling (Keeneland September 2005)
Notable siblings: Market Mover (32-6-3-6, $102,427, stakes-placed, 0-2 on turf in Ireland)
Sire's race record: 17-4-2-3, $835,142, multiple Grade 1 route winner, 2-3 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 29-215 (13%)
Sire's win percentage with turfers: 4-82 (5%)
Dam's race record: 17-4-3-3, $104,960.
Dam's production record: 9 foals, 8 runners, 3 winners, 5 turf runners, 6 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 46-166 (28%), $1.84 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with blinkers adding Lasix in statebred maiden special weight turf route: None
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 15-53 (28%), $1,83 ROI
Family facts: Dam half to Ten Cents A Dance (Grade 2-placed, dam of Versailles Treaty, etc), General Assembly (multiple Grade 1 winner), and Expressive Dance (multiple Grade 3 winner). Second dam was multiple stakes winner.
Workout analysis: None

4. Ashotofjackanabeer (Victory Gallop - Brite Prospector, by High Brite)
Trainer: M Anthony Ferraro
Foal date: March 27, 2004
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 17-9-5-1, $3,505,895, multiple Grade 1 route winner, 3-5 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsterss: 10-93 (11%)
Sire's win percentage with first-time turfers: 7-93 (8%)
Dam's race record: 56-14-7-10, $331,197, multiple stakes-placed, 0-5 on turf, 0-7 at 2.
Dam's production record: This is her first foal.
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 0-26
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters without Lasix in statebred maiden special weight turf route: None
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-6
Family facts: Dam cost $30,000 as a yearling. Dam half to Barnabus (27-5-4-2, $121,341, stakes-winner, 4-22 on turf, first-turf winner, 0-1 at 2). Descends from La Troienne.
Workout analysis: August 13, July 30 works match barn's 4yo Jack the Hack (finished seventh in 4K MCL at FL on August 20 with 2 Beyer, unraced on turf). Several works match unraced 2yo Silver Sports Star (Radio Star - Sybil S., by Rubiano).

5. Al Basha (Aljabr - Spectacularcrystal, by Spectacular Bid)
Trainer: Angel Penna Jr.
Foal date: February 11, 2004
Auction history: $21,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2004)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 9-5-1-0, Group 1 winner on turf at ages 2,3,4 in Europe.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 7-47 (15%)
Sire's win percentage with first-time turfers: 2-14 (14%)
Dam's race record: 12-3-2-2, $17,828, all wins sprinting on dirt.
Dam's production record: 4 foals, 3 runners, 2 winners, 1 turf runner, 2 juvenile runners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 3-49 (6%), $0.67
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with Lasix (without blinkers) going sprint to route and dirt to turf in statebred maiden special weight: None
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 1-13 (8%), $0.62 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $10,500 as a yearling. Dam a half to Meru (stakes-winner). Second dam was Grade 3-placed. Third dam was multiple stakes-winner at 2.
Workout analysis: None

6. Officer Macturf (Millions - Offtheturf, by Technology)
Trainer: Heriberto Cedano
Foal date: February 17, 2004
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 14-3-2-1, $213,022, Grade 3 winner at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 8-62 (13%)
Sire's win percentage with turfers: 0-5
Dam's race record: 41-7-3-8, $229,045, 4-18 on turf, 0-5 at 2.
Dam's production record: This is her first foal.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 1-60 (2%), $0.45 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles with Lasix (without blinkers) in statebred maiden special weight turf route: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 0-11
Family facts: Dam cost $8,000 as a yearling. Second dam a half to Rosedale (Grade 1 winner on turf).
Workout analysis: None

7. Solvent (Banker's Gold - Time for Faith, by Gilded Time)
Trainer: George Weaver
Foal date: March 13, 2004
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 15-6-3-1, $461,420, multiple Grade 2 winner
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 7-102 (7%)
Sire's win percentage with first-time turfers: 1-67 (1%)
Dam's race record: 13-1-1-0, $44,310, won on turf, 0-2 at 2.
Dam's production record: This is her first foal
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 6-64 (9%), $1.43 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden statebred maiden special weight turf route: None
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 2-23 (9%), $1.25 ROI
Family facts: Dam a half to Country Be Gold (59-11-6-9, $818,691, Grade 3 winner, 0-2 on turf). Second dam was stakes-winner (0-4 on turf). Family of Stymie.
Workout analysis: Several works match unraced 2yo filly Mandy's Purse (Street Cry - Elhasna, by Danzig). July 31, July 24 works match barn's 3yo filly Lady Rushmoore (finished ninth in turf MSW at Delaware on August 15 with 23 Beyer). Several works match unraced 2yo filly City Zipper (City Zip - Steady Anna, by Steady Growth).

8. Stormy King (King Cugat - Galosha, by Storm Boot)
Trainer: Ollie Figgins III
Foal date: January 30, 2004
Auction history: $6,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton May 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 16-7-7-1, $1,293,782, all races on turf, 2-4 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 6-58 (10%)
Sire's win percentage with turfers: 7-32 (22%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: This is her first foal.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 0-1
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with Lasix (without blinkers) going sprint to route in statebred maiden special weight turf race: None
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: None
Family facts: Dam sold for $25,000 as a yearling. Dam a half to Lucky Sucre (9-2-1-3, $84,160, stakes-placed at 2). Family of Cannonade, Halo, etc.
Workout analysis: None

9. Tobruk (Out of Place - Kristening, by Kris S.)
Trainer: Gary Sciacca
Foal date: February 20, 2006
Auction history: Withdrawn juvenile (OBS April 2006)
Notable siblings: Beijio (23-5-1-7, $208,494, multiple stakes-placed, 0-1 on turf)
Sire's race record: 25-8-6-7, $733,450, Grade 3 route winner
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 122-905 (13%)
Sire's win percentage with turfers: 98-960 (10%)
Dam's race record: 53-2-7-12, $84,685, both wins routing on dirt, 0-18 on turf, 0-5 at 2.
Dam's production record: 6 foals, 6 runners, 5 winners, 5 turf runners, 1 turf winner, 4 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 3-94 (3%), $1.85 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles with Lasix and blinkers in statebred maiden special weight turf route: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 1-15 (7%), $1.89 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $45,000 as a juvenile. Dam a full to Always Be Mine (26-3-2-0, $42,855, stakes-winner at 2, 0-4 on turf).
Workout analysis: None

10. Sir Cryptomite (Main Track Only)

11. Fahrenheit Wild (Main Track Only)

Analysis:

TOBRUK draws way outside, but showed some life from far outside post in initial turf route against favored Admiral Bird. Out of Place - Kris S. 'nick' is very powerful, and this colt seems to be rounding into form. OFFICER MACTURF raced very wide in turf debut when necked for third by top selection. May sit nice trip off logical pacesetter GOOD PROSPECT. TEE WITH THE TIGER consistently outworks mate STOPBLUFFING, and should offer some value for underrated barn that sent out longshot statebred debut winner at the meet. SHIFTER adds Lasix for second lifetime start - a very potent angle in maiden races - for juvenile guru Pat Biancone. AL BASHA has strong turf breeding, and was forced to rally over speed-favoring track in debut at Belmont.

The Bet: Tobruk (turf only)

Race 6
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $26,000

1. Stresa (Salt Lake - Pretend, by Gulch)
Trainer: David Donk
Foal date: April 14, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $8,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2005)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 21-7-3-4, $536,218, Grade 1 sprint winner at 2
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 203-1082 (19%)
Dam's race record: 3-0-0-0, $4,410
Dam's production record: 8 foals, 7 runners, 3 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 21-262 (8%), $1.84 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 1-17 (6%), $0.36 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 1-42 (2%), $1.70 ROI
Family facts: Dam a half to Daytime Friend (63-8-10-11, $117,677, stakes-placed, 0-4 at 2), Kafiristan (33-6-4-6, $96,326, 0-2 at 2), and Future Pretense (16-5-4-1, $234,262, multiple Grade 1-placed router, 0-1 at 2). Family of Shuvee
Workout analysis: None

1a. Proud Silver (Proud and True - Silver Pond, by Raja Baba)
Trainer: David Donk
Foal date: March 30, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: Fort Pond (27-5-4-1, $135,769, multiple stakes-winner, 2-5 at 2)., Grainsup (43-9-4-7, $124,978, stakes-placed, 1-4 at 2)
Sire's race record: 9-3-0-2, $96,170, Grade 3-placed router, 1-5 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 17-229 (7%)
Dam's race record: 15-2-3-0, $38,280, both wins sprinting, 1-4 at 2.
Dam's production record: 10 foals, 10 runners, 8 winners, 7 juvenile runners, 3 juvenile winners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 21-262 (8%), $1.84 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 1-42 (2%), $1.70 ROI
Family facts: Dam half to Sham Passion (stakes-placed), Patricia (Group 2 winner on turf in France), Passionate Cub (20-3-6-3, $75,642, stakes-placed), and Ambler's Passion (10-1-1-1, $24,398, stakes-placed on grass, 0-1 at 2).
Workout analysis: None

2. Earlybird Road (Cherokee Run - Kiss N Make Up, by Private Terms)
Trainer: W Robert Bailes
Foal date: January 20, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $45,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005) $45,000 RNA juvenile (OBS March 2006).
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 28-13-5-5, $1,531,818, Grade 1 sprint winner, 5-7 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 126-779 (16%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 2 runners, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 10-97 (10%), $1.17 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles with Lasix and blinkers going turf to dirt in maiden claiming sprint: 0-2
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 1-6 (17%), $1.20 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $100,000 as a short yearling, and $65,000 as a yearling. Dam a three-quarter sibling to Draw (18-5-4-5, $278,198, stakes-winner, 0-1 at 2), and is a half to Dorm (12-3-1-2, $92,910, stakes-placed, all wins routing). Second dam was multiple stakes-winner. Third dam was stakes-placed.
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60, and another furlong in 10.60 prior to the March sale.

3. Miss Shipley (Johannesburg - Jaded, by Gone West)
Trainer: John Kimmel
Foal date: April 3, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $75,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $100,000 juvenile (OBS March 2006), out juvenile (Keeneland April 2006).
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 10-7-1-0, $1,014,585, Grade/Group 1 winner on dirt and turf at 2
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 7-53 (13%)
Dam's race record: 6-1-0-0, $13,391, won routing.
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 2 runners, 2 juvenile runners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 36-253 (14%), $1.76 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles removing blinkers with Lasix off 31-60 day layoff in maiden claiming dirt sprint: NoneFamily facts: Dam a half to Suave (25-7-6-2, $1,345,923, multiple Grade 2 route winner, 1-5 at 2). Second dam was multiple Grade 1 winner (2-3 at 2). Family of Lyphard.
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the March sale.

4. Kera's Cookie (Bernstein - Mi Cookie, by Fast Play)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foal date: April 6, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: Withdrawn weanling (Keeneland November 2004), $50,000 RNA short yearling (Keeneland January 2005), $37,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $10,000 juvenile (OBS April 2006).
Notable siblings: NoneSire's race record: 8-4-0-0, $173,120, multiple Group 3 winner on turf in Ireland, won debut at 2 on turf in Ireland.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 25-121 (21%)
Dam's race record: 8-2-3-0, $29,480, stakes-placed, both wins sprinting
Dam's production record: This is her first foal.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 75-506 (15%), $1.42 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 5-14 (36%), $3.29 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 3-44 (7%), $0.84 ROI
Family facts: Dam a half to Key Pro (22-4-3-4, $134,074, multiple sprint stakes-winner at 2). Third dam was multiple stakes-winner.
Workout analysis: Worked 2 furlongs in 23.80 prior to the April sale.

5. Lacy Halo (Halo's Image - Forli's Honor, by Honor Grades)
Trainer: Joseph Aquilino
Foal date: March 23, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: $2,500 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2005).
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 26-9-6-5, $549,891, multiple Grade 3 winner, 2-4 at 2, won debut
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 18-130 (14%)
Dam's race record: 19-2-1-1, $18,944, both wins sprinting.
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 1 runner, 1 juvenile runner.
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 1-54 (2%), $0.09 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 1-13 (8%), $0.39 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-20
Family facts: Second dam is Forli's Lass (45-19-7-5, $223,782, multiple stakes-winner).
Workout analysis: July 31 work went .03 slower than barn's 2yo filly Siempre Verde (finished eighth in career debut on turf on August 14 with 51 Beyer). July 24 work matches Siempre Verde. July 4 work matches barn's 2yo Gatto Domani (finished 10th in career debut in July 31 maiden special weight with 17 Beyer).

6. Rendezvous Sioux (Cherokee Run - Secret Rendezvous, by Bates Motel)
Trainer: Patrick Reynolds
Foal date: March 4, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $125,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $75,000 RNA juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February 2006), out juvenile (Keeneland April 2006).
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 28-13-5-5, $1,531,818, Grade 1 sprint winner, 5-7 at 2, won debut.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 20-219 (9%)
Dam's race record: 38-6-4-4, $213,638, stakes-winner, 1-7 at 2.
Dam's production record: 4 foals, 3 runners, 3 winners.
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 0-17
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprints: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-7
Family facts: Dam a full to Our Dear Helen (13-4-4-4, $107,040, stakes-winner at 2).
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 11, and another furlong in 10.60 prior to the February sale.

7. Bravo's Princess (Tour d'Or - Dalys Princess, by Fortunate Prospect).
Trainer: Timothy Ritvo
Foal date: April 15, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 41-16-6-4, $464,091, multiple stakes-winning router.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 131-875 (15%)
Dam's race record: 35-3-2-4, $36,340, all wins sprinting, 0-7 at 2.
Dam's production record: This is her first foal.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 115-815 (14%), $1.42 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-out juveniles adding Lasix with blinkers in dirt sprint maiden claiming: 1-14 (7%), $2.00 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 2-21 (10%), $1.16 ROI
Family facts: Dam sold for $35,000 as a juvenile. Fourth dam was multiple Grade 3 winner. Fifth dam was stakes-winner.
Workout analysis: None

8. Spillway (Siphon - Splasher, by Seattle Slew)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Foal date: February 6, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 25-12-6-2, $3,136,428, multiple Grade/Group 1 winner, won career debut in Brazil at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 15-143 (10%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: This is her first foal
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 21-214 (10%), $0.97 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters without Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprints: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-34
Family facts: Dam sold for $600,000 as a yearling. Dam a half to Romantic Comedy (16-4-2-3, $116,099, stakes-placed, 0-3 at 2), and Indy Wind (5-3-1-1, $87,800, stakes-placed router). Third dam was multiple Grade 1 winner. Fourth dam was multiple stakes-winner at 2 on turf in England. Family of Ends Well, Fred Astaire, etc.
Workout analysis: July 30 work went .02 slower than barn's 4yo Silent Bid (finished fifth in 30K 'N2L' claimer on August 7 with 53 Beyer). July 23 work matches barn's 2yo Starbase (37 dirt Beyer, finished seventh in turf maiden special weight on July 30 with 25 Beyer). July 17 work matches barn's 2yo Westwon (finished third in maiden special weight debut on August 21 with 62 Beyer).

9. Page Six Obsessed (Songandaprayer - Storm Angel, by Storm Bird)
Trainer: Robert Barbara
Foal date: January 29, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: $60,000 weanling (OBS October 2004), $75,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $95,000 RNA juvenile (OBS February 2006), $25,000 RNA juvenile (Fasig-Tipton May 2006).
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 8-3-1-1, $380,480, Grade 1 route winner, 2-2 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 25-118 (21%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 2 runners, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winner.
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 21-167 (13%), $1.72 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles removing blinkers (with Lasix) in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 5-29 (17%), $2.12 ROI
Family facts: Dam a half to Smart Angel (10-2-2-2, $135,752, stakes-placed at 2). Second dam was multiple Grade 3-placed. Family of Graustark, His Majesty, etc.
Workout analysis: Worked 2 furlongs in 22.20 prior to the February sale. Worked 2 furlongs in 23.40 prior to the May sale. August 19 work matches barn's 3yo Revisionandreverse (60 Beyer top).

10. Sneaky Girl (Snuck In - Diplomatic Girl, by Gallapiat)
Trainer: Gary Gullo
Foal date: April 13, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: out yearling (OBS August 2005), $25,000 juvenile (OBS April 2006).
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 18-5-4-2, $563,230, Grade 3 route winner, 4-7 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 6-50 (12%)
Dam's race record: 45-5-6-5, $33,482, all wins sprinting.
Dam's production record: 4 foals, 3 runners, 3 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner.
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 2-13 (15%), $4.09 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 1-3 (33%), $9.07 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-4
Family facts: Second dam cost $6,000 as a yearling. Second dam a half to Miss Angelique (31-5-7-5, $106,852, multiple stakes-placed sprinter), Mystic Union (48-8-10-5, $233.209, stakes-winner, 2-12 at 2), and Federal Trial (14-7-3-1, $445,790, Grade 2 turf winner).
Workout analysis: Worked 2 furlongs in 22 flat prior to the April sale. July 28 work matches barn's 2yo filly Half Time Crown (finished fifth in turf debut on August 23). July 21 work went .02 slower than Half Time Crown.

11. Golden Policy (Formal Gold - Policy Issue, by Moscow Ballet)
Trainer: Michael Gorham
Foal date: January 31, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: out yearling (Keeneland September 2005).
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 16-8-4-1, $1,533,600, multiple Grade 1 route winner.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 9-101 (9%)
Dam's race record: 7-2-0-0, $42,460, 1-1 at 2
Dam's production record: 4 foals, 3 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner.
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 12-84 (14%), $3.05 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprints: 3-7 (43%), $5.80 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 1-11 (9%), $2.80 ROI
Family facts: Dam a half to Vinnie the Viper (40-12-8-5, $516,821, Grade 3 sprint winner, 1-1 at 2), and Profit Key (27-8-4-1, $462,065, multiple Grade 2 route winner, 0-2 at 2). Second dam was 2yo stakes-winner. Third dam was multiple stakes-winner.
Workout analysis: None

12. Bare Dancer (Cherokee Run - Dancing Naturally, by Fred Astaire)
Trainer: Gary Contessa
Foal date: March 4, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $50,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $23,000 juvenile (OBS March 2006), out juvenile (Keeneland April 2006).
Notable siblings: Indian War Dance (13-3-0-1, $96,000, stakes-winner, 1-5 at 2),
Sire's race record: 28-13-5-5, $1,531,818, Grade 1 sprint winner, 5-7 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 126-779 (16%)
Dam's race record: 22-4-4-2, $105,770, 0-1 at 2.
Dam's production record: 5 foals, 5 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 51-422 (12%), $1.27 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-out juveniles with Lasix (without blinkers) in maiden claiming dirt sprints: 0-8
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 7-82 (9%), $1.10 ROI
Family facts: Second dam a half to Hoist Emy's Flag (stakes-winner). Third dam was multiple stakes-winner at 2. Fourth dam was 2yo stakes-winner.
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the March sale.

Analysis:

Both of Gary Gullo's juvenile debut winners over the past five years came at double-digit odds in maiden claimers, and his SNEAKY GIRL was quick enough to work a quarter-mile in 22 flat prior to the OBS April sale. Her workmate wasn't disgraced in her troubled debut on the grass in Wednesday's fourth race. She might live up to her name in an unappealing maiden claimer. BRAVO'S PRINCESS dueled hard after breaking from intimidating inside post in career debut. May have to rate with speeds entered to her inside. PROUD SILVER had some traffic trouble in her debut, but is stuck on the also-eligible list. Mate STRESA showed improved speed at this level. BARE DANCER ran well in debut, and should benefit with that experience now firmly tucked under her belt. Should get a nice pace setup with EARLYBIRD ROAD likely to blaze the way from the rail. KERA'S COOKIE took money for debut, but raced greenly, and barn has been struggling at the meet. GOLDEN POLICY attracts Prado for debut, and barn does well shipping in from Delaware.

The Bet: Sneaky Girl