07/24/2011 11:06PM

Spa Babies for July 25, Race 6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 6
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:
DANCIN N PRANCIN (Johar - Cozzmic Wonder, by Cozzene, April 2, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (6-16, 1.4M, 6-16 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 6-69 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-23, 13%, $1.31 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 16-80 (20%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $50,000 short yearling and $170,000 yearling, was placed (0-5, 23K, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, debut winner, 2-2 on turf, first-turf winner). This is the female family of Grade 3 turf winner Chorwon (13-44, 1.1M, 10-38 on turf). Trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints. Dutrow is 2-11 (18%, $1.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.


SWEET CAT (Kitten's Joy - Claire's Smile, by Carson City, March 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $95,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf) that is 19-97 (20%) with juvenile debut runners (5-35, 14%, $2.62 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older first-turf winner) and 18-120 (15%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $165,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). Sweet Cat is a half-sister to stakes-winner Loose Leaf (5-18, 231K, 2-6 at two, 0-3 on turf). This is the female family of Group 3 juvenile turf winner Storm Star (2-4, 52K). Carson City is 11-69 (16%, $2.15 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2011 (4 juvenile debut winners). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 4-37 (11%, $0.60 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-11, 9%, $0.96 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 16-62 (25%, $1,88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.


CAT GIRL (Discreet Cat - Famous Story, by Rahy, April 1, 2009 in Kentucky, $80,000 Fasig-Tipton Fall weanling, $160,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 1.6M, 1-1 at two) that is 3-15 (20%) with juvenile runners and 0-2 with turf runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 0-3 with turfers). The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Tubrok (5-41, 317K, 1-6 at two, 3-31 on turf) and is a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Sunshine for Life (4-17, 221K, 0-1 at two, 4-15 on turf). Trainer Frank Alexander is 1-32 (3%, $0.30 ROI) over the past two years with juveniles.


DELIGHTFUL SONG (Half Ours - Deputie's Notebook, by Notebook, April 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $15,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-7, 319K, 2-2 at two) that is 4-11 (36%) with juvenile runners and 0-1 with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam was a sprint winner (2-25, 62K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 on turf) and this is a first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 route winner Delightful Kiss (7-34, 1.0M, 1-5 at two, 1-7 on turf), Grade 3-placed router Honour the Deputy (3-10, 99K) and stakes-winning router Delightful Mary (3-6, 372K, 2-4 at two). Delightful Song made his debut for a $50,000 tag over the Woodbine polytrack on June 24. He was in a bit tight while stalking the pace before uncorking a three-wide bid on the turn. He was getting tired late in that race and steps up into maiden special weights here. Trainer Mark Casse is 3-11 (27%, $2.49 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix.
 

MORNING SHINE (Lion Heart - Affair At Dawn, by Black Tie Affair, February 5, 2009 in Kentucky, $135,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two) that is 23-171 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (8-42, 19%, $1.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners) and 13-135 (10%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $40,000 yearling and $40,000 juvenile, was a winner (4-22, 64K, 0-6 at two, 3-11 on turf) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (3-4 with juveniles, 1-5 with turfers). Morning Shine is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile router Stylish Yankee (3-14, 90K, 1-4 at two, 0-1 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Let's Go Blue (13-42, 757K, 2-6 at two, 0-7 on turf) and stakes-winner Mount Bleu (8-57, 144K, 0-2 on two, 7-34 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter (7-27, 157K, 1-1 at two, 0-1 on turf). Black Tie Affair was 1-55 (2%, $0.41 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2010 and does not have a debut winner as a broodmare sire in 2011. Trainer Steve Asmussen is 5-30 (17%, $1.71 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). The May 13, May 24, May 31, June 14 workouts match Asmussen's juvenile filly Barbados Beauty (entered for career debut in today's third race). The May 31 workout matches Asmussen's 3-year-old Tapativity (finished seventh in maiden special weight on turf at Churchill Downs on June 17 with 72 Beyer). The June 29 workout matches Asmussen's juvenile filly M. Antoinette (finished third in career debut on turf at Ellis Park on July 23 with 36 Beyer). July 6 workout went .05 slower than 3-year-old filly Malibu Cougar (34 Beyer, entered in today's first race). Asmussen is 9-91 (9%, $1.09 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.
 

RUN A RISK (Distorted Humor - Commodities, by Private Account, February 13, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (8-23, 769K) that is 53-296 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (6-31, 19%, $2.05 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner) and 34-367 (9%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $305,000 yearling, was a winner (2-6, 59K, 1-2 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 3-4 on turf, 1 first-turf winner). Run a Risk is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Rey de Cafe (4-13, 302K, 2-6 at two, 3-9 on turf), stakes-winner Tricky Causeway (7-38, 333K, 6-22 on turf, first-turf winner) and Grade 3 turfer El Crespo (2-23, 235K, 0-2 at two, 2-19 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed sprinter Western Expression (3-16, 140K, 0-1 on turf) and multiple Grade 2 turf winner King Cugat (7-16, 1.2M, 2-4 at two, won debut, 7-16 on turf, first-turf winner). Trainer Rusty Arnold is 1-9 (11%, $2.04 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-5 at Saratoga). Arnold is 4-12 (33%, $11.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011. The June 18 workout matches Arnold's juvenile filly Catching Reys (finished thirteenth in the My Dear Stakes over the Woodbine polytrack on June 25 with 5 Beyer). July 10 workout matches Arnold's 6-year-old gelding A Diehl (finished second in the Bernhardt Stakes on dirt at Ellis Park on July 16 with 91 Beyer, 88 Beyer on polytrack, 87 Beyer on turf).
 

VOLCAT (After Market - Kentucky Whisper, by Southern Halo, January 31, 2009 in Kentucky, $149,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Summer yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (8-13, 903K, 1-1 at two, 8-13 on turf) that is 1-21 (5%) with juvenile runners and 0-1 with first-turf runners from his first crop. The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-2 on turf, first-turf winner). Volcat is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning turfer Love to Tell (6-29, 310K, 6-24 on turf, first-turf winner) and stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Economic Swoon (3-8, 78K, 1-2 at two). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Setareh (4-16, 239K, 0-5 on turf). Trainer Ken McPeek is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf in maiden special weight turf sprints. The July 16 workout matches McPeek's juvenile colt Ventura Bar (41 Beyer on turf).
 

FLY TO THE SKY (Lone Star Sky - Flying Circle, by Pembroke, February 22, 2009 in Louisiana) is by a Grade 3 juvenile sprint winner (3-14, 504K, 3-6 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf) that is 1-14 (7%) with juvenile debut runners (1-11, 9%, $2.60 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, older winner) and 1-13 (8%) with first-turf winners. The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (7-24, 483K, 0-1 at two, 4-13 on turf) and this is her first starter. The second dam is stakes-placed sprinter Quest For Round (3-4, 46K). Trainer David Fawkes is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints. Fawkes is 7-43 (16%, $2.00 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011. The May 23 workout matches Fawkes' juvenile Burning Time (finished first in $40,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Calder on July 10 with 47 Beyer). The May 23 and May 30 workouts match Fawkes' juvenile filly Queen Drama (finished second in career debut on dirt at Calder on June 25 with 58 Beyer). The July 3 and July 10 workouts match Fawkes' 3-year-old filly Ballyhoo Kat (finished sixth in maiden special weight at Calder on July 22 with 24 Beyer)


CATTARAUGUS (Straight Man - Master Con Artist, by Master Bill, January 30, 2009 in Florida, $4,500 RNA OBS Open yearling) is by a Grade 2 winner (5-15, 333K) that is 11-127 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (0 debut winners in 2011) and 16-127 (13%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a sprint winner (5-17, 49K, 0-2 on turf) and this is her first starter. Trainer Lisa Lewis is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints. Lewis is 1-4 (25%, $12.35 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Dancin N Prancin
2. Sweet Cat
3. Cat Girl

 

The Play:
Dancin N Prancin to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater.

 

***

 

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 6-1-2 (-$15.60)