07/24/2011 9:57PM

Spa Babies for July 25, Race 3

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.

Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Sunday's results:
Race 2: Cybertron finished fifth
Race 9: Overdriven finished First

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Race 3
5 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

SELECT CAT (Tale of the Cat - Secret Patriot, by Secret Hello, March 30, 2009 in Virginia, $15,000 Keeneland November weanling, $75,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting) that is 71-385 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (10-44, 23%, $2.63 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners, 1 out of a Secret Hello mare). The dam was a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-3, 26K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting) that has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Abidjan (6-31, 147K, 0-2 sprinting) and Grade 1-placed router Bunting (2-17, 195K, 1-6 at two, 1-4 sprinting). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 56-264 (21%, $1.54 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight sprints (16-83, 19%, $1.68 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 16-62 (25%, $1,88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.


BARBADOS BEAUTY
(Speightstown - Beautiful Moment, by Crusader Sword, May 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $105,000 Keeneland January short yearling, $150,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (10-16, 1.2M, 0-1 at two, 10-16 sprinting) that is 17-122 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (7-35, 20%, $2.30 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $14,700 weanling and $53,000 yearling, was a stakes-placed sprinter at two (1-5, 33K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 1-5 sprinting) that has foaled 7 winners from 7 runners (4-5 with juveniles, 1 juvenile debut winner). Barbados Beauty is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Saturday Hero (3-16, 84K, 1-2 at two, 3-15 sprinting), stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Beautiful Treasure (1-18, 65K, 1-5 at two, 1-9 sprinting), and Japanese Grade 3 turf winner Henny Hound (2-4, 573K, 1-1 at two). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Bidding Proud (11-34, 456K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 2-9 sprinting). Crusader Sword is 3-10 (30%, $6.69 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2011 (2 juvenile debut winners). Trainer Steve Asmussen is 9-91 (9%, $1.09 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011. The May 13, May 24, May 31, June 14 workouts match Asmussen's juvenile filly Morning Shine (entered for career debut in today's sixth race). The May 31 workout matches Asmussen's 3-year-old Tapativity (finished seventh in maiden special weight on turf at Churchill Downs on June 17 with 72 Beyer, 67 Beyer on dirt). The June 29, July 6 workouts match Asmussen's juvenile filly My Miss Aurelia (finished first in career debut at Saratoga on July 22 with 86 Beyer). The July 6 workout went .01 faster than Asmussen's 3-year-old filly Malibu Cougar (34 Beyer, entered in today's first race). The July 19 workout went .02 faster than My Miss Aurelia.


SPRING BREEZE (Congrats - Spring, by Stravinsky, March 4, 2009 in Florida, Out OBS Fall weanling, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, $72,000 OBS Select yearling) is by a Grade 2 route winner (7-26, 998K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-5 sprinting) that is 8-64 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (4-30, 13%, $1.16 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam, a $45,000 weanling and $110,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 at two). Spring Breeze is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed juvenile router Pulsion (2-16, 194K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed router Throne (1-18, 75K, 1-7 at two). Trainer Carlos Martin is 1-9 (11%, $1.64 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.


SIBERIAN WILDCAT (Wildcat Heir - Artic Experience, by Slewpy, February 20, 2009 in Florida, Out Keeneland November weanling, $24,000 RNA OBS Select yearling, $46,000 OBS Spring juvenile) worked one furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (6-12, 424K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 6-12 sprinting) that is 26-110 (24%) with juvenile debut runners (2-34, 6%, $0.64 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam was a Grade 2-placed sprinter at two (1-3, 27K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (4-5 with juvenile runners, 2 juvenile debut winners). Siberian Wildcat is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Crackalackin (5-12, 105K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 5-12 sprinting). This is the female family of Grade 3 winner Kissapotamus (10-58, 152K, 2-7 at two). Trainer Gary Contessa is 1-37 (3%, $0.95 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints at Saratoga. The May 15, May 22 workouts went .01 slower than Contessa's juvenile filly Giving Me Fitz (finished fourth in career debut on turf at Belmont on June 29 with 55 Beyer). The May 22 workout went .02 faster than Contessa's juvenile filly Hook It Up (finished first in career debut at Belmont on June 16 with 54 Beyer).


MISS BIKINI BOTTOM (Saint Anddan - Hannah's Ink, by Pentelicus, February 22, 2009 in Florida, Withdrawn OBS Fall weanling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-16, 423K, 5-10 sprinting) that is 2-21 (10%) with juvenile runners from his first crop. The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 6 runners (0-6 with juveniles). Miss Bikini Bottom is a half-sister to stakes-winner Rate of Exchange (4-23, 169K, 0-1 at two, 3-14 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Alltheway Bertie (8-26, 233K, 4-7 at two, 5-7 sprinting). Trainer William Lagorio is 0-5 over the past five years with all second-time starters in maiden special weights. The third-place finisher from the debut returned to finish ninth in a maiden special weight at Belmont on July 10.


SPARE CHANGE (Bernardini - Finder's Fee, by Storm Cat, April 11, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 7-37 (19%) with juvenile debut runners (6-31, 19%, $2.05 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner out of a Storm Cat mare). The dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-27, 708K, 3-8 at two, won debut, 5-17 in main track sprints) that has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with juveniles). Spare Change is a half-sister to stakes-placed Receipt (1-10, 72K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter New Way (5-14, 120K, 5-12 sprinting), multiple Grade 2-placed router Treasure Island (2-6, 96K, 1-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting). Trainer Shug McGaughey is 0-48 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints.

 

 Selections:
1. Select Cat
2. Barbados Beauty
3. Spring Breeze

 The Play:
Select Cat to Win at 8-5 odds or greater.