08/31/2006 11:00PM

Spa Babies for Friday

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Welcome to Spa Babies! Saratoga is famous for its top-notch racing for two-year-olds so I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden race at the meet in the hope of finding a winner, and perhaps, a future star.

If a selection goes off between 2-1 and 7-2 odds, he will be bet to Win. If the selection goes off at 4-1 or longer, he will be bet to Win and Place. Anything under 2-1 will not be played.

Thursday's results: 2-0-0, -$4.00

Meet results: 59-7-31, -$14.50

Friday, September 1, 2006

Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($100,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $35,000

1. Rayona (Catienus - Zienat, by Woodman)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foal date: March 19, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $20,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 22-5-5-2, $370,386, stakes-winning router, 2-4 at 2 on turf in England
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 51-317 (16%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: 3 foals, 3 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 75-509 (15%), N/A
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with Lasix dropping from MSW to MCL in dirt sprint: 1-4 (25%), $2.45 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 3-45 (7%), N/A
Family facts: Dam cost $260,000 as a yearling. Second dam was multiple stakes-winner (2-10 at 2, won debut).
Workout analysis: August 24 work went .03 slower than mate Acadia Breeze, and .03 faster than barn's 2yo filly Whimsical Miss (60 Beyer).

1a. Acadia Breeze (Royal Academy - Midway Squall, by Storm Bird)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foal date: January 31, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: Squall City (10-4-2-1, $173,190, stakes-winner, 1-4 at 2), British Attitude (11-2-3-1, $82,520, stakes-placed, 0-1 at 2)
Sire's race record: 7-4-2-0, $758,994, multiple Grade/Group 1 turf winner, 1-2 at two on turf in Europe, won debut
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 13-99 (13%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: 7 foals, 6 runners, 5 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 21-169 (12%), $1.43 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 5-39 (13%), $1.72 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 3-15 (20%), $2.45 ROI
Family facts: Second dam a stakes-winner (0-3 at 2). Third dam a stakes-winner.
Workout analysis: August 24 went .03 faster than mate Rayona (52 Beyer). June 17 work matches barn's 2yo fily Alta Love (finished ninth in debut on Ellis Park turf with 29 Beyer).

2. Upstate Cat (Catienus - Negueva, by Neverneyev)
Trainer: Willard Freeman
Foal date: May 17, 2004
Foal state: New York
Auction history: $7,000 yearling (New York October 2005)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 22-5-5-2, $370,386, stakes-winning router, 2-4 at 2 on turf in England
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 10-88 (11%)
Dam's race record: 17-4-1-4, $44,749, all wins on turf in France, 1-5 at 2
Dam's production record: This is her first foal
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 0-5
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters without Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-2
Family facts: Descends from Courtly Dee.
Workout analysis: August 23 work matches barn's 2yo Check the Numbers (finished 12th in August 30 debut with 2 Beyer).

3. Lunar Shot (Sky Classic - Youcan'taffordher, by Carson City)
Trainer: Joseph Aquilino
Foal date: March 20, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: $27,000 juvenile (OBS April 2006)
Notable siblings: See Me Through (19-2-4-3, $171,816, Grade 3 winner, 0-1 at 2)
Sire's race record: 29-15-6-1, $3,320,398, multiple Grade 1 turf winner, 4-6 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 18-219 (8%)
Dam's race record: 6-1-2-0, $27,650, won sprinting at 2
Dam's production record: 4 foals, 3 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 1-56 (2%), $0.09 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 1-14 (7%), $0.36 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-22
Family facts: Dam cost $40,000 as a weanling. Dam half to Out of the Bid (14-2-2-3, $53,952, stakes-winning router). Descends from La Troienne.
Workout analysis: Worked 2 furlongs in 22.80 prior to the April sale. August 21 work matches barn's 2yo filly Expect Drama (finished fourth in August 28 debut with 23 Beyer).

4. County Leitrim (Yonaguska - Boundless Bliss, by Boundary)
Trainer: George Weaver
Foal date: March 7, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $10,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2004), $95,000 yearling (OBS August 2005), $90,000 RNA juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 18-6-1-5, $536,355, Grade 1 winner sprinting at 2, won debut
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 1-32 (3%)
Dam's race record: 9-2-0-2, $11,886
Dam's production record: This is her first foal
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 6-69 (9%), N/A
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 1-3 (33%), $7.47 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 2-28 (7%), N/A
Family facts: Dam sold for $100,000 as a yearling. Dam half to Admonition (18-3-3-2, $75,490, stakes-winner, 2-5 at 2). Third dam was Grade 2 winner (won debut at 2). Family of Cozzene.
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the February sale. July 31 work matches barn's 2yo filly City Zipper (finished fifth in August 28 debut with 20 Beyer). July 15 work matches barn's 3yo filly Lady Rushmoore (finished ninth in Auguat 15 debut on turf at Delaware with 23 Beyer).

5. Bare Dancer (Cherokee Run - Dancing Naturally, by Fred Astaire)
Trainer: Gary Contessa
Foal date: March 4, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $50,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $23,000 juvenile (OBS March 2006), out juvenile (Keeneland April 2006)
Notable siblings: Indian War Dance (13-3-0-1, $96,000, stakes-winner, 1-5 at 2)
Sire's race record: 28-13-5-5, $1,531,818, Grade 1 sprint winner, 5-7 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 126-784 (16%)
Dam's race record: 22-4-4-2, $105,770, 0-1 at 2
Dam's production record: 5 foals, 5 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 51-419 (12%), $1.29 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 0-8
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 7-79 (9%), $1.14 ROI
Family facts: Second dam a half to Hoist Emy's Flag (21-9-4-1, $189,580, stakes-winner, Grade 3-placed at 2). Third dam was a multiple stakes-winner at 2. Fourth dam was a stakes-winner at 2. Cherokee Run - Fred Astaire 'nick' also produced Dash for Daylight (stakes-winner).
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the March sale.

6. Isle Capote (Capote - Isleworth, by Mt. Livermore)
Trainer: Scott Blasi
Foal date: March 1, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $22,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $55,000 RNA juvenile (Barretts May 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 10-3-0-1, $714,470, multiple Grade 1 winner at 2
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 179-1177 (15%)
Dam's race record: 7-1-0-0, $12,755, won sprinting
Dam's production record: 6 foals, 6 runners, 3 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 18-107 (17%), N/A*
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with Lasix dropping from MSW to MCL in drt sprint: 1-2 (50%), $1.80 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 3-18 (17%), N/A
Family facts: Dam half to Diamond Sunjet (54-11-8-5, $132,187, stakes-winning sprinter, 2yo debut winner), Thinkernot (34-4-5-7, $154,957, Grade 3-placed 2yo), Wekiva Springs (21-10-4-2, $1,512,575, multiple Grade 1 winning router, 1-2 at 2), and Indomable (153-14-21-25, $190,799, stakes-placed 2yo).
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the May sale. August 21 work went .03 faster than barn's 4yo Gaff (111 Beyer top).
*Blasi is assistant to suspended Steven Asmussen, a top trainer of 2-year-olds.

7. Heart That's True (Twining - Darmane, by Mane Minister)
Trainer: William Turner Jr.
Foal date: February 28, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: out weanling (Keeneland November 2004)
Notable siblings: Future Vision (14-2-3-2, $33,515, stakes-placed sprinter, 0-2 at 2)
Sire's race record: 6-5-1-0, $238,140, multiple Grade 2 route winner
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 25-191 (13%)
Dam's race record: 8-0-0-1, $2,317, 0-1 at 2
Dam's production record: 6 foals, 4 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 4-34 (12%), $4.83 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprint: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-6
Family facts: Dam sold for $9,000 as a weanling. Second dam was multiple stakes-placed.
Workout analysis: None

8. A Wonder She Is (Three Wonders - Video Devil, by Devil's Bag)
Trainer: Richard Violette Jr.
Foal date: February 17, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: $120,000 juvenile (OBS March 2006)
Notable siblings: Mama Ella (31-4-7-6, $127,998, stakes-placed, all wins sprinting, 1-11 at 2)
Sire's race record: 30-4-2-2, $318,032, Grade 3 turf winner, 1-5 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 7-64 (11%)
Dam's race record: 4-0-0-1, $1,920, all races sprinting at 2
Dam's production record: 8 foals, 8 runners, 5 winners, 7 juvenile runners, 3 juvenile winners
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 52-272 (19%), N/A
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles with Lasix adding blinkers and dropping from MSW to MCL in dirt sprint: 0-2
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 13-54 (24%), N/A
Family facts: Dam sold for $30,000 as yearling. Dam half to Videogenic (73-20-9-10, $1,154,360, multiple Grade 1 winner, 1-2 at 2), and Shu Fellow (62-11-14-7, $147,066, stakes-placed sprinter). Second dam was stakes-placed at 2.
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the March sale.

Analysis:

A WONDER SHE IS rushed up to contest four-ply speed duel in debut, but was outsprinted going into the turn, and soon faded. Shows a bullet work in preparation for second start (presumably wore new blinkers during work), and can make presence felt from the start. ISLE CAPOTE was pinched back badly at the start of her debut, then rushed up to save ground behind a multi-horse speed duel. She tired soon afterwards, but should have learned lots of lessons from that outing. BARE DANCER broke poorly and raced wide over inside, speed-favoring track in debut, and seems well-spotted for shrewd barn. ACADIA BREEZE is an early foal that may have a maturity edge over her rivals. She attracts Prado while RAYONA can improve off rallying effort at Churchill.

The Bet: A Wonder She Is

Race 4
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $47,000

1. Dancing Cherokee (Yonaguska - Dancapade, by Polka)
Trainer: John Kimmel
Foal date: February 22, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $70,000 weanling (OBS October 2004), $95,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2005), $135,000 juvenile (OBS February 2006)
Notable siblings: Cocodan (30-6-3-7, $82,310, stakes-placed sprinter at 2)
Sire's race record: 18-6-1-5, $536,355, Grade 1 sprint winner at 2, won debut
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 1-32 (3%)
Dam's race record: 17-8-0-1, $83,370, multiple stakes-winner
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winner
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 14-98 (14%), $2.76 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 2-38 (5%), $0.36 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 2-20 (10%), $3.50 ROI
Family facts: Second dam a half to Misty Good (75-15-10-7, $150,685, stakes-winner, 1-6 at 2), and Handsome Barry (51-8-6-6, $102,143, stakes-placed).
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the February sale.

2. For a Prayer (Songandaprayer - For Granted, by Affirmed)
Trainer: H Allen Jerkens
Foal date: April 6, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: withdrawn juvenile (Fasig-Tipton May 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 8-3-1-1, $380,480, Grade 1 route winner, 2-2 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 7-42 (17%)
Dam's race record: 6-0-0-4, $16,100
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 1 runner, 1 juvenile runner
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 8-63 (13%), $2.17 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters without Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 7-51 (14%), $2.55 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 2-11 (18%), $8.30 ROI
Family facts: Dam a half to Smokume (21-8-3-0, $422,228, Grade 2 sprint winner, 3-4 at 2, won debut).
Workout analysis: None

3. Chocolate Chip (Orientate - Alya, by Deputy Minister)
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Foal date: March 16, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $60,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2005)
Notable siblings: Joyful Chaos (17-5-3-2, $235,761, turf stakes-winner)
Sire's race record: 19-10-3-0, $1,716,950, multiple Grade 1 sprint winner, 0-2 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 5-24 (21%)
Dam's race record: 2-0-0-0, $0, both races on turf in England
Dam's production record: 4 foals, 2 runners, 2 winners, 1 juvenile runner
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 8-74 (11%), $1.42 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 0-3
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-2
Family facts: Dam a half to Panama Canal (16-4-3-2, $192,130, Grade 3 route winner). Second dam a Grade 1 route winner.
Workout analysis: None

4. Lauren's Heather (Stravinsky - Sweetness Follows, by St. Jovite)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foal date: February 2, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $47,000 RNA weanling (Fasig-Tipton November 2004)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 8-3-1-1, $361,450, multiple Group 1 winner on turf in England, 1-3 on turf at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 6-53 (11%)
Dam's race record: 6-0-1-0, $3,500, 0-2 at 2
Dam's production record: 3 foals, 2 runners, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 1-13 (8%), $3.86 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters without Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 0-2
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-2
Family facts: Dam sold for $115,000 as a yearling, and for $150,000 as a juvenile. Second dam a turf stakes-winner.
Workout analysis: August 14 went .01 faster than barn's 2yo filly East Lake Classic (finished eighth in debut on August 27 with 0 Beyer).

5. Perfect Forest (Forestry - Perfect Probe, by Mr. Prospector)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foal date: April 11, 2004
Foal state: Virginia
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: Tokio Perfect (Grade 3 winner in Japan), Perfect Cat (26-5-8-3, $493,113, Grade 3 route winner, 0-3 at 2)
Sire's race record: 11-7-1-2, $591,225, Grade 1 sprint winner
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 12-76 (16%)
Dam's race record: 6-0-0-3, $13,530, 0-4 at 2
Dam's production record: 9 foals, 6 runners, 3 winners, 2 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 91-372 (24%), $1.79 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 64-276 (23%), $1.58 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 18-84 (21%), $1.46 ROI
Family facts: Dam sold for $250,000 as a yearling. Dam a half to Seattle Sangue (36-10-5-3, $322,607, stakes-winner). Second dam a multiple Grade 1 winner on turf. Third dam a Group 1 winner on turf in France.
Workout analysis: August 29 work matches barn's 2yo filly Bovell Road (70 Beyer top). August 15 and August 7 works match barn's 2yo Glitterboy (finished fifth in August 20 debut at Monmouth with 59 Beyer). July 24 matches barn's 3yo Advisor (eased in 'n2l' $30,000 claimer at Saratoga on August 7). July 24 work matches barn's 2yo Grapelli (finished fourth with 45 Beyer at Monmouth in maiden special weight on August 5). July 15 work went .03 slower than barn's 5yo mare Little Buttercup (finished seventh in the Yaddo Stakes on turf on August 19 with 74 Beyer). July 15, June 30 works match barn's 2yo filly Ochre (won debut on turf on August 31 with 84 Beyer).

6. Bold Assurance (Stormy Atlantic - Houston Bluelass, by Houston
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Foal date: February 29, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $37,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2005), $15,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2005), $30,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton May 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 15-6-2-1, $148,126, multiple sprint stakes-winner, 0-1 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 25-182 (14%)
Dam's race record: 9-1-0-2, $18,639, won on turf at 2, won debut
Dam's production record: 4 foals, 3 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 12-143 (8%), $2.03 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 4-56 (7%), $2.42 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 4-31 (13%), $4.50 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $33,000 as a yearling. Dam a full to Worldly Gal (30-5-4-3, $84,927, stakes-placed, 2-5 at 2, won debut), and a half to Delray Dew (29-11-3-4, $313,312, multiple route stakes-winner). Second dam was stakes-placed sprinting at 2 (won debut).
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 11 flat prior to May sale. August 21 work matches barn's 2yo filly Smart Surprise (finished third with 60 Beyer in debut on August 27). July 31 work matches barn's 2yo filly Laurentide Ice (won debut on August 7 with 86 Beyer). July 22, July 1 works match barn's 2yo filly Dinner Break (won debut on turf on August 23 with 65 Beyer).

7. Striking Tomisue (Smart Strike - Avenging Tomisue, by Belong to Me)
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
Foal date: May 2, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 8-6-1-0, $337,376, Grade 1 route winner
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 26-147 (18%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: This is her first foal
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 19-182 (10%), $1.50 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 17-142 (12%), $1.59 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 11-69 (16%), $2.30 ROI
Family facts: Second dam cost $530,000 as a yearling. Second dam a stakes-winning half to Good Journey (Grade 1 turf winner), Aldebaran (multiple Grade 1 winner), and Sea of Showers (Grade 3 turf winner). Third dam a multiple Group 1 winner on turf in Europe. Fourth dam a Group 1 winner at 2 on turf in Ireland. Fifth dam was multiple stakes-placed on turf in Ireland. Sixth dam was stakes-winner. Seventh dam was multiple stakes-placed.
Workout analysis: None

8. Gentle Grace (Woodman - Gentle Minister, by Deputy Minister)
Trainer: Rodrigo Ubilo
Foal date: March 29, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $35,000 weanling (Fasig-Tipton November 2004)
Notable siblings: Wine Goddess (4-0-2-2, $27,485, stakes-placed sprinting at 2)
Sire's race record: 5-3-0-1, $32,011, multiple Group 3 winner at 2 in Ireland.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 21-293 (7%)
Dam's race record: 31-3-6-5, $75,857, all wins sprinting, 0-3 at 2.
Dam's production record: 10 foals, 9 runners, 6 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 1 juvenile debut winner
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 0-2
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters without Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 0-1
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: None
Family facts: Dam a half to Conquistador Lee (27-5-2-2, $62,205, stakes-winner at 2). Second dam was multiple stakes-placed.
Workout analysis: August 12 work matches barn's 4yo Northern Storm (58 Beyer when fifth on August 27 in 'n1x' optional claimer).

9. Tres Dream (Chester House - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake)
Trainer: Scott Blasi
Foal date: February 24, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $30,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 21-6-4-4, $1,944,545, Grade 1 turf winner, 1-2 at 2 on turf in Europe, won debut.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 6-60 (10%)
Dam's race record: 13-5-1-3, $154,296, multiple stakes-winner
Dam's production record: 3 foals, 2 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 1-30 (3%), $0.39 ROI*
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 1-21 (5%), $0.56 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 1-7 (14%), $1.69 ROI
*Blasi is assistant to suspended Steven Asmussen, a top trainer of juveniles.
Family facts: Dam cost $87,000 as a yearling. Second dam a multiple stakes-winner (2yo debut winner).
Workout analysis: August 21 work went .01 slower than barn's Zanjero (70 Beyer top). August 14 work went .03 slower than barn's 2yo Chace City (won Grade 2 Saratoga Special on August 17 with 92 Beyer), and 2yo Shooter Luicci (52 Beyer when sixth in career debut on August 30).

10. Lilly Carson (Carson City - Golden Lilly, by Deputy Minister)
Trainer: Ralph Nicks
Foal date: February 1, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 15-6-2-0, $306,240, Grade 2 sprint winner at 2, won debut
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 75-404 (19%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: This is her first foal
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 2-28 (7%), $0.65 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 1-10 (10%), $1.20 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-1
Family facts: Dam a half to America's Storm (17-3-4-3, $106,230, multiple stakes-placed, 0-3 at 2). Second dam sold for $110,000 as a yearling, and for $250,000 as a juvenile. Second dam a Grade 3 winner at 2. Third dam a Grade 3 winner.
Workout analysis: July 31 matches barn's 2yo Narthax (20 Beyer when seventh in debut on 20 Beyer).

11. Queen Joanne (Mr. Greeley - Heat Lightning, by Summer Squall)
Trainer: William Mott
Foal date: May 5, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: $350,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2005)
Notable siblings: Stevie Wonderboy (6-3-2-1, $1,058,940, Grade 1 route winner at 2)
Sire's race record: 16-5-6-0, $474,452, multiple Grade 3 sprint winner, 2-6 at 2.
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 23-220 (10%)
Dam's race record: 13-0-1-3, $18,020, 0-6 at 2
Dam's production record: 7 foals, 6 runners, 6 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 16-201 (8%), $0.87 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters without Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprints: 6-99 (6%), $0.86 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 3-52 (6%), $0.64 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $350,000 as a yearling. Dam a half to Fair Judgement (multiple Grade/Group 2 turf winner), and Linda Coqueta (25-4-6-4, $123,698, route stakes-winner). Second dam a Grade 3 winner at 2. Third dam a stakes-winner at 2. Fourth dam a stakes-winner at 2.
Workout analysis: August 21 work went .03 faster than barn's 3yo filly Crystal Current (57 Beyer when eighth in Dynasty Stakes on turf on August 31 - 88 Beyer top on dirt).

12. Frozen Prospect (Suave Prospect - Almost Ice, by It's Freezing)
Trainer: Linda Rice
Foal date: March 10, 2004
Foal state: Florida
Auction history: $8,000 yearling (OBS August 2005), $150,000 juvenile (OBS April 2006)
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 36-6-14-4, $730,532, multiple Grade 3 winner, 3-10 at 2
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 11-127 (9%)
Dam's race record: 50-7-7-7, $57,038, all wins sprinting, 0-4 at 2
Dam's production record: 6 foals, 5 runners, 4 winners, 3 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 10-105 (10%), $1.27 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters with Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 5-47 (11%), $0.91 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 1-29 (3%), $0.84 ROI
Family facts: Dam sold for $20,000 as a yearling, and for $35,000 as a juvenile. Dam half to Natural Selection (21-3-6-4, $477,310, Grade 2 route winner, 0-2 at 2). Second dam was multiple stakes-placed (1-1 at 2).
Workout analysis: Worked 2 furlongs in 21.60 prior to the April sale.

13. Dance Band (Storm Cat - Ho Baby, by Gilded Time)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Foal date: May 18, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 8-4-3-0, $570,610, Grade 1 route winner at 2
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 257-1044 (25%)
Dam's race record: 19-5-5-5, $134,183, multiple stakes-placed
Dam's production record: 3 foals, 3 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 92-772 (12%), $0.97 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles with blinkers (without Lasix) in maiden special weight dirt sprints: 7-72 (10%), $0.72 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 11-126 (9%), $0.68 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $105,000 as a yearling. Dam half to Grafton (40-10-6-4, $203,254, multiple stakes-placed sprinter, unraced at 2).
Workout analysis: August 19 work went .01 slower than barn's 3yo filly Impelling (54 Beyer when fifth in 'n1x' allowance on August 27), and .04 slower than barn's 2yo Storm Force (56 Beyer)

14. All Giving (Allen's Prospect - Slew the Dragoness, by Slew City Slew)
Trainer: W Robert Bailes
Foal date: March 16, 2004
Foal state: Maryland
Auction history: $19,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2005), $75,000 juvenile Fasig-Tipton May 2006)
Notable siblings: Sea Dragoness (9-2-1-3, $53,120, multiple sprint stakes-placed at 2), War Native (12-3-1-3, $96,890, sprint stakes-winner at 2, debut winner)
Sire's race record: 7-3-1-2, $56,100, all wins sprinting
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 232-1482 (16%)
Dam's race record: 13-2-1-2, $15,685, both wins routing, 0-4 at 2
Dam's production record: 5 foals, 5 runners, 3 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 1 juvenile debut winner
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 10-100 (10%), $1.14 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with second-time juveniles adding Lasix (with blinkers) in dirt sprints : 1-5 (20%), $0.96 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 1-9 (11%), $0.80 ROI
Family facts: Dam cost $44,000 as a yearling. Dam half to Silent Roberto (36-6-5-3, $85,120, 2yo stakes-winner), and Song of Jove (48-9-9-5, $217,547, multiple sprint stakes-winner, unraced at 2).
Workout analysis: Worked 1 furlong in 10.80 prior to the May sale.

15. Tale of the Queen (Tale of the Cat - Queen Inca, by Capote)
Trainer: Reynaldo Abreu
Foal date: May 3, 2004
Foal state: Kentucky
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 9-5-1-2, $360,900, Grade 2 sprint winner
Sire's win percentage with juveniles: 108-518 (21%)
Dam's race record: 11-0-1-1, $9,234, all races sprinting, 0-5 at 2
Dam's production record: 5 foals, 4 runners, 1 winner, 3 juvenile runners
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles (overall): 4-22 (18%), $2.69 ROI
Trainer's 5-year record with juveniles with Lasix (without blinkers) in maiden special weight dirt sprint: 1-10 (10%), $0.28 ROI
Trainer's 5-year-record with juveniles at Saratoga: 0-12
Family facts: Dam a half to Catinca (20-9-5-4, $864,775, Grade 1 route winner, 0-1 at 2). Third dam a multiple stakes-winner. Fourth dam a multiple stakes-winner.
Workout analysis: None

Analysis:

BOLD ASSURANCE makes debut for barn that has sent out juvenile debut winners Laurentide Ice (6-1 odds) and Dinner Break (12-1) at this meet. Several of her workouts look very interesting, and she may offer some value here. QUEEN JOANNE, Edgar Prado's second call, is a half-sister to last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy. She draws outside, but the $350,000 yearling certainly wouldn't be a surprise. FOR A PRAYER is by excellent debut sire, and her trainer is one of the best in history. DANCING CHEROKEE has some speed in her pedigree, but must deal with extreme inside post. TALE OF THE QUEEN showed improved speed in second lifetime start, and acts like she'll appreciate turning back in distance. ALL GIVING should prove a pace factor adding Lasix for her second start. TRES DREAM breezed a quick half-mile for outfit that can strike with a firster. PERFECT FOREST (Pletcher/Velazquez) and STRIKING TOMISUE (Zito/Leparoux) deserve respect based on hot connections.

The Bet: Bold Assurance

Race 6
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $47,000

1. Longingfortheone (Abaginone - Longing to Be, by Belong to Me)
Trainer: Glenn Disanto
Foal date: January 26, 2004
Auction history: None
Notable siblings: None
Sire's race record: 10-7-0-1, $307,108, multiple Grade 3 sprint winner
Sire's win percentage with juvenile firsters: 5-53 (9%)
Sire's win percentage with first-turf runners: 2-35 (6%)
Dam's race record: Unraced
Dam's production record: 2 foals, 1 runner
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters (overall): 0-8
Trainer's 5-year record with juvenile firsters on turf: 0-2
Trainer's 5-year-record with juvenile firsters at Saratoga: 0-3
Family facts: Second dam sold for $17,000 as a yearling. Second dam a full to Blazing Saddle (39-9-10-5, $130,782, multiple stakes-placed sprinter, 0-1 on turf, 3-9 at 2, won debut).
Workout analysis: None