08/03/2011 7:05PM

Spa Babies for August 4, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 5
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($50,000, New York-breds)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $29,000

Analysis:

#1a NOT CLOSE (Bob and John - Macchiati, by Scorpion, February 13, 2009, $18,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, $35,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.3 prior to the April auction.  She is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-14, 996K, 1-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 2-12 (17%, $3.25 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $29,000 weanling and $60,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-1, $0, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Fit To Be A Gent (13-89, 188K, 0-2 at two, 11-67 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-winner Roy's Trigger (4-31, 120K, 2-6 at two, 2-12 sprinting).  The June 30 workout went .03 slower than entry mate Victory Island.  The July 15 workout went .01 slower than Victory Island.  Pletcher is 1-3 (33%, $3.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints.  Pletcher is 21-75 (28%, $1.93 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#10 HARBOR MIST (Rockport Harbor - Jaramar Miss, by Risen Star, February 13, 2009 in New York, $40,000 New York Mixed October weanling) is by a juvenile Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 324K, 4-4 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 8-83 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (4-36, 11%, $0.88 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam, an $18,000 weanling, was a juvenile sprint winner (1-13, 22K, 1-9 at two, 1-9 sprinting) that has foaled 9 winners from 9 runners (1-5 with juveniles, 5-9 with sprinters).  Harbor Mist is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Jaramar Rain (5-23, 292K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile So Cozy (2-4, 32K, 2-3 at two), stakes-winning sprinter Special Power (12-34, 173K, 3-8 at two, 12-32 sprinting) and French juvenile stakes-placed turfer Wezzo.  The June 8, June 15, June 22, June 30 and July 7 workouts match trainer Phil Serpe's juvenile filly Pure Gossip (finished first in career debut here on July 22 with 66 Beyer).  Serpe is 1-4 (25%, $6.95 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (1-3, 33%, $9.26 ROI at Saratoga).  Serpe is 1-6 (17%, $12.67 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#8 WINNING CASE (Successful Appeal - Self Rising, by Hansel, April 20, 2009, $10,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (8-22, 654K, 3-6 at two, 7-13 sprinting) that is 129-600 (22%) with juveniles. The dam was a stakes-placed sprinter (4-22, 164K, 1-5 at two, 4-21 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 1-4 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Lost Without You (3-19, 143K, 0-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting).  Trainer Randi Persaud is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix on dirt. Adds Lasix, has some speed and can improve dropping in for a tag.

#6 HALL OF FLAME (Hook and Ladder - Artistic Express, by Western Expression, February 28, 2009) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 42-357 (12%) with juveniles.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (4-21, 251K, 2-4 at two, 2-6 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  This is the family of stakes-winning turfer Rinka Das (6-37, 991K, 2-3 at two). Trainer Ramon Hernandez is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).

#4 SWEET MOON (Maybry's Boy - Eastern Moon, by Eastern Echo, May 31, 2009) is the first starter by a Grade 3 sprint winner (8-43, 322K, 1-5 at two, 8-37 sprinting) .  The dam was unraced and has foaled 7 winners from 7 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 5-6 with sprinters).  Sweet Moon is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Lunar Flight (2-6, 112K, 2-6 at two, 2-4 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Migrating Moon (9-18, 388K, 3-5 sprinting).  The July 8 workout went .04 faster than trainer George Weaver's juvenile Goldie's Reward (finished seventh in maiden special weight here on July 31 with 37 Beyer).  The July 8 workout went .04 faster than Weaver's 3-year-old Fiddlers Padre (5 Beyer on turf, unraced on dirt). Weaver is 1-2 (50%, $15.30 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Weaver is 4-22 (18%, $2.54 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#9 WHY TAKE A CHANCE (Hook and Ladder - Quietly Elegant, by Quiet American, April 1, 2009, $10,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 16-115 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (2-25, 8%, $0.66 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam, a $72,000 weanling and $55,000 yearling, was a turf winner (1-20, 34K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Wind Flow (5-7, 172K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 4-6 sprinting). The May 21, June 10, June 18 workouts match trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile filly Rhonin Victoria (finished fifth in career debut at Ellis Park on July 8 with 28 Beyer).  The May 21, May 28, June 18 workouts match McPeek's juvenile filly Putthebabiesdown (finished first in maiden special weight on turf at Ellis Park on July 3 with 62 Beyer, unraced on dirt).  The May 28, June 18 workouts match McPeek's juvenile filly Dream Pegasus (finished first in career debut in maiden special weight at Ellis Park on July 8 with 44 Beyer).  The June 3, June 18 workouts match McPeek's juvenile filly Jill Golden (finished third in career debut on turf at Arlington on July 17 with 40 Beyer).   McPeek is 1-1 (100%, $6.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (1-1 at Saratoga).  McPeek is 3-42 (7%, $0.74 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#11 TALE OF UTOPIA (Utopia - Tarrah's Tale, by Tale of the Cat, February 6, 2009, $12,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the April auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 1-15 (7%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $40,000 yearling and $28,000 juvenile, was a winner (3-13, 26K, 2-7 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  This is the female family of Grade 2 route winner Wild Syn (3-18, 352K, 0-1 at two, 0-6 sprinting).  Trainer Merrill Scherer is 0-5 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints.

#5 RIPLEY'S GOLD (Stonesider - Mrs. Ripley, by Yes It's True, April 26, 2009) is by a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-1, 25K, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting) that is 0-4 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $40,000 yearling, was a route winner (1-20, 17K, 0-2 at two, 0-9 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Sam's Sunny Halo (16-82, 407K, 1-1 at two, 11-48 sprinting).  The July 31 workout went .03 faster than trainer Bruce Brown's 3-year-old Disco Capote (finished third in 'n1x' allowance at Suffolk Downs on August 3 with ? Beyer, raced under trainer Thomas McCooey Jr.'s name).  Brown is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Brown is 2-8 (25%, $2.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#1 VICTORY ISLAND (Friendly Island - Victorious Laurie, by Giant's Causeway, February 20, 2009, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling) is the first starter by a Grade 2 sprint winner (8-19, 1.3M, 8-17 sprinting).  The dam, a $200,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (2-11, 41K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 route winner Victory Gallop (9-16, 3.0M, 3-5 at two, 2-3 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Run To Victory (7-26, 258K, 0-2 at two).  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 1-3 (33%, $3.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints.  Pletcher is 21-75 (28%, $1.93 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#7 FOR HER EYES ONLY (Utopia - On Call, by Forest Camp, April 4, 2009, $15,000 New York Mixed October weanling, $30,000 OBS Spring April juvenile, Out Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction).  She is by
a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 0-10 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $60,000 short yearling and $85,000 yearling, was unraced and this is her first starter.  The second dam is stakes-winning sprinter Lolabell (4-15, 130K, 1-3 at two, 4-15 sprinting). Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  McLaughlin is 3-19 (15%, $0.94 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#2 SPARKS WILL FLY (Langfuhr - Sparkling Blue, by Smoke Glacken, February 17, 2009, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (9-23, 698K, 8-12 sprinting) that is 30-355 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-46, 4%, $0.50 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam, a $25,000 weanling and $75,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (5-11, 99K, 0-1 a two, 5-11 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Smoke Mountain (5-32, 182K, 0-4 at two, 5-25 sprinting).  The July 28 workout matches trainer Chad Brown's unraced 3-year-old Starry. Brown is 1-2 (50%, $4.40 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints.  Brown is 1-22 (5%) with all debut runners in 2011.

#3 CAT ON THE ISLAND (One Nice Cat - Pacific Island, by Grand Slam, February 8, 2009) is by a stakes-winner (4-28, 163K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting) that is 1-25 (4%) with juvenile debut runners.  The dam was a sprint winner (4-14, 126K, 2-5 at two, 4-13 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with juveniles, 0-1 with sprinters).  Cat On the Island is a half-sister to stakes-placed Himynameissarah (5-29, 95K, 1-8 at two, 0-7 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Hidden City (3-14, 146K, 2-4 at two, 3-14 sprinting).  Trainer Allen Iwinski is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints.  Iwinski is 0-24 with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

 

Selections:
1. Not Close
2. Harbor Mist
3. Winning Case

The Play:
Not Close to Win at 2-1 odds or greater.

If Not Close scratches, then Harbor Mist to Win and Place at 8-1 odds or greater.

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 17-5-7 (-$39.70)