08/03/2011 6:59PM

Spa Babies for August 4, Race 4

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 4
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York-breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $40,000

Analysis:

#2 DAYATTHESPA (City Zip - M'Lady Doc, by Doc's Leader, February 17, 2009, $50,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, Out Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a Grade 1 juvenile sprint winner (9-23, 818K, 5-11 at two, 0-2 on turf) that is 38-213 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (6-34, 18%, $2.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners) and 30-191 (16%) with first-time turfers.  The dam, a $40,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-7, 2K, 0-6 at two, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Queen Ginni (6-35, 43K, 3-13 at two, 0-2 on turf) and juvenile stakes-winning router Queen Mary's Boy (5-51, 85K, 2-7 at two, 0-5 on turf).  The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 turf winner Phi Beta Doc (5-45, 436K, 1-12 at two, 5-37 on turf, first-turf winner).  The July 27 workout matches trainer Chad Brown's 3-year-old Zero Yield (finished fifth in career debut on turf here on August 3 with 64 Beyer).  Brown is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Brown is 1-22 (5%) with all debut runners in 2011.

#6 QUIET ENDING (Langfuhr - Quiet, by Roar, February 20, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (9-23, 698K, 0-5 on turf) that is 30-355 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-46, 4%, $0.50 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner) and 39-470 (8%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $120,000 yearling, was a Grade 3-placed sprinter (4-8, 119K, 1-2 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 2-4 with turfers, 2 first-turf winners).  Quiet Ending is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed Quietly Mine (5-35, 393K, 2-4 at two, 4-29 on turf, first-turf winner).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 sprint winner Maryfield (9-28, 1.3M, 0-1 at two, 1-5 on turf, first-turf winner).  The July 6 and July 13 workouts match trainer Christophe Clement's juvenile filly Composition (entered in today's third race).  The July 29 workout matches Clement's 3-year-old filly File Gumbo (58 Beyer on turf).  The July 29 workout matches Clement's 3-year-old filly Race to Urga (78 Beyer top on turf).  The July 29 workout matches Clement's 4-year-old filly Countess Lemonade (79 Beyer on turf, 101 Racing Post Rating).  Clement is 1-1 (100%, $8.50 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints.  Clement is 6-40 (15%, $1.86 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#1 READ THE RESEARCH (Freud - Fast Read, by Touch Gold, March 10, 2009, $16,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, $135,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.0 prior to the April auction.  She is by a Group 2-placed turfer (1-12, 44K, 0-3 at two, 1-12 on turf) that is 20-148 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (1-19, 5%, $1.23 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 20-155 (13%) with first-time turfers.  The dam, a $95,000 short yearling, was a sprint winner (1-9, 22K, 0-1 at two, 0-3 on turf) and this is her first starter.  This is the family of Grade 3-placed turfer Andover Lady (3-11, 130K, 3-11 on turf, first-turf winner).  Trainer Bill Mott is 0-25 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-10 at Saratoga).  Mott is 3-31 (9%, $1.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011

#8 LADYWELL COURT (Powerscourt - Commander's Lady, by Deputy Commander, March 14, 2009) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 turf winner (5-21, 1.9M, 1-4 at two, 5-21 on turf) that is 2-30 (7%) with juvenile debut runners (1-19, 5%, $0.48 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 2-45 (4%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $40,000 yearling, was stakes-placed on turf (2-15, 112K, 0-2 at two, 1-14 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with juvenile, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Command Start (6-24, 112K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf), juvenile stakes-winner Rare Deputy (7-78, 109K, 2-4 at two, 0-1 on turf), stakes-placed Beshairt (5-19, 107K, 0-1 on turf), stakes-placed Cinnamon Force (0-8, 10K) and multiple stakes-winner Golden Stripe (5-18, 153K).  Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  Serpe is 1-6 (17%, $12.67 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#11 DARN THAT TRIP (Trippi - Twirl, by Darn That Alarm, January 25, 2009, $27,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-14, 666K) that is 37-241 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (8-42, 19%, $2.50 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners) and 19-228 (8%) with first-time turfers.  The dam was a stakes-placed router at two (1-5, 60K, 1-5 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 0-0 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Chasseresse (5-38, 153K, 1-8 at two, 0-6 on turf) and stakes-placed router Heir D' Twine (7-49, 190K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 on turf). The June 27 workout went .01 faster than trainer James Ryerson's 3-year-old Raffie's Choice (finished fourth in maiden special weight on turf at Belmont on July 1 with 60 Beyer).  Ryerson is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints.  Ryerson is 1-9 (11%, $0.63 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#3 MIGHTY REWARD (Grand Reward - Denville, by Candy Stripes, March 18, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (4-24, 545K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 2-14 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 8-102 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (1-15, 7%, $0.48 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 8-70 (11%) with first-time turfers.  The dam, a $6,500 short yearling, $16,000 yearling and $22,000 juvenile, was placed sprinting (0-3, 4K) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 2-2 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  This is the female family of Grade 3 sprint winner Garemma (16-43, 395K, 3-12 at two, 0-1 on turf).  The July 1 workout matches trainer George Weaver's juvenile filly Goldie's Reward (finished seventh in career debut on dirt at Saratoga on July 31 with 37 Beyer).  The July 1 workout went .05 faster than Weaver's juvenile Quiet Danger (finished eighth in career debut on turf on July 30 with 49 Beyer).  Weaver is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  Weaver is 4-22 (18%, $2.54 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#7 FALSE ALIBI (Kitten's Joy - Ticket, by Cryptoclearance, March 24, 2009, Out OBS Spring April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf) that is 55-289 (19%) with juveniles and 82-525 (16%) with turfers.  The dam was placed (0-11, 15K, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The third dam is multiple Grade 1 winner White Star Line (9-18, 256K).  Trainer Allen Jerkens is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers.  Legendary trainer adds blinkers after dull debut at 56-1.  May want more distance.

#9 SATIN SHEEKS (Elusive Quality - Satin Smooth, by Giant's Causeway, January 9, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (9-20, 413K, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 33-212 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (3-28, 11%, $0.93 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 27-314 (9%) with first-time turfers.  The dam, a $300,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with juveniles, 0-1 with turf runners).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 sprint winner True Quality (5-14, 288K, 0-1 on turf).  Trainer Linda Rice is 4-13 (31%, $2.20 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (3-8, 38%, $2.53 ROI at Saratoga).  Rice is 3-35 (8%, $0.97 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#10 LISINI (Grand Slam - Lizzie Toon, by Dixieland Band, April 4, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner (4-15, 971K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf) that is 46-371 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (4-47, 9%, $1.05 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners) and 47-440 (11%) with first-turf runners.  The Grand Slam - Dixieland Band breeding 'nick' had produced multiple Grade 2 winner Limehouse (7-21, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, won debut, 4-7 sprinting).  The dam, an $18,000 weanling, $67,000 yearling and $110,000 juvenile, was multiple stakes-placed, 3-24, 137K, 0-5 at two, 2-13 on turf) and has foaled 6 winners from 7 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-4 with North American turfers).  Lisini is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Willy o'the Valley (7-16, 337K, 0-1 on turf).  The second dam is juvenile stakes-winner Hot Ski (4-31, 72K, 3-10 at two, 0-2 on turf).  Trainer H. James Bond is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints.  Bond is 1-5 (20%, $2.84 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#4 STOCK FUND (Stonesider - Stock Tip, by Thunder Gulch, February 4, 2009) is by a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-1, 25K, 1-1 at two) that is 0-4 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  Stock Fund is Stonesider's first turf starter.  The dam, a $200,000 yearling, was a first-turf winner (1-5, 31K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-0 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  This is the female family of Grade 1 winners Upper Nile (6-19, 186K, 2-6 at two) and De La Rose (11-26, 544K, 3-8 at two).  Trainer Carlos Martin is 1-9 (11%, $2.53 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-3 at Saratoga).  Martin is 1-10 (10%, $1.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#5 BARREL OF JOY (Disco Rico - Wide Barrel, by Broad Brush, March 22, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (2-3 at two) that is 25-178 (14%) with juvenile and 6-71 (8%) with first-time turfers.  The dam was a turf winner (1-8, 45K, 1-4 on turf) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-3 with turfers.  Barrel of Joy is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Love Abroad (4-36, 265K, unraced at two, 0-3 on turf). The dam is from the female family of Grade winner Firm Stance (7-17, 443K, 2-4 at two, 1-3 on turf). Trainer John Hertler is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf. 

 

Selections:
1. Dayatthespa
2. Quiet Ending
3. Read the Research

The Play:
Dayatthespa to Win at 7-2 odds or greater