08/03/2011 6:56PM

Spa Babies for August 4, Race 3

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Wednesday's results:

Race 2:  Hunt Crossing finished first

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Thursday, August 4, 2011

Race 3
5 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

#2 RESERVATION BLUES (Indian Charlie - Gone for Christmas, by Gone West, April 1, 2009 in Virginia, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-5, 616K, 1-1 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 37-238 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (2-31, 6%, $1.18 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam was a winner (2-9, 73K, 1-4 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters).  Reservation Blues is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Christmas for Liam (3-7, 107K, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Christmas Kid (4-12, 596K, 1-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Elusive Gift (6-16, 211K, 4-10 sprinting).  The July 28 workout matches Todd Pletcher's juvenile Hunt Crossing (finished first in career debut here on August 3 with 87 Beyer). Pletcher is 60-268 (22%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (19-85, 22% at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 21-75 (28%, $1.93 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#11 COMPOSITION (Malibu Moon - St Lucinda, by St. Jovite, May 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $190,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $350,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the February auction.  She is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 46-277 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (8-48, 17%, $1.48 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners).  The dam was multiple stakes-placed on turf (2-11, 57K, 1-1 at two) and has foaled 5 winners from 8 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 1-6 with sprinters).  Composition is a half-sister to Grade 2 turf winner Mananan McLir (1-7 at two, 9-47, 506K, 0-1 sprinting), stakes-winning turfer Sandra's Rose (4-14, 199K, 0-2 sprinting) and stakes-winning turfer Charming N Lovable (3-7, 146K).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Magic Carr (6-31, 83K, 1-13 sprinting) and stakes-placed Majestico (8-72, 93K, 0-3 sprinting).  The July 6 and July 13 workouts match trainer Christophe Clement's juvenile filly Quiet Ending (entered in today's fourth race).  The July 25 workout matches Clement's 3-year-old Dannhauser (76 Beyer top).  Clement is 2-27 (7%, $1.40 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga).  Clement is 6-40 (15%, $1.86 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#3 MI VIDA (Distorted Humor - Crystal Current, by A.P. Indy, February 5, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (8-23, 769K, 7-13 sprinting) that is 53-297 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (6-33, 18%, $1.93 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner out of an A.P. Indy mare).  The Distorted Humor - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3 route winner Brethren (3-5, 224K, 2-2 at two, 1-1 sprinting), Grade 3 juvenile route winner Z Humor (6-34, 970K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 1-5 sprinting), and Grade 1 route winner Any Given Saturday (6-11, 1.0M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-1 sprinting).  The dam was a stakes-winning router (2-14, 109K, 1-4 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a full sister to juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner Majestic Warrior (2-7, 239K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting) and is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Evolutionist (3-14, 133K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Eric Guillot is 0-11 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints.  Guillot is 2-14 (7%, $1.16 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#5 RIBBON TAFFY (Hard Spun - Partyship, by Premiership, January 26, 2009 in Kentucky, $115,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $70,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting) that is 2-14 (14%, $1.48 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $72,000 juvenile, was unplaced (0-3, $510, 0-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and has foaled 7 winners from 10 runners (5-7 with juveniles, 6-10 with sprinters). Ribbon Taffy is a half-sister to stakes-placed Artic Party (19-48, 323K, 2-9 at two, 19-43 sprinting), stakes-placed juvenile Kissin Party (3-17, 87K, 1-8 at two, 3-13 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winning router Barrier Reef (5-22, 250K, 1-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning juvenile Taxpayer's Folly (6-31, 178K, 5-8 at two, won debut, 5-23 sprinting) and stakes-winner Floor Me (5-36, 82K, 0-1 at two, 2-17 sprinting).  Trainer John Pucek is 0-5 over the past five years with debut runners on dirt.  Pucek is 0-7 since January 1, 2009 with all debut runners.

#8 XUNLEI (D'wildcat - Promenade Road, by Dance Brightly, March 18, 2009 in Florida, $90,000 OBS Select August yearling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (5-18, 570K, 0-1 at two, 4-14 sprinting) that is 58-402 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam, an $80,000 yearling, was a route winner (2-21, 130K, 0-4 at two, 0-7 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 2-4 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Swing Boldly (2-28, 37K, 1-3 at two, 2-27 sprinting).  Trainer Dale Romans is 6-51 (12%, $1.65 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-8 at Saratoga).  Showed good speed in debut and can be a forward factor once again.

#6 FLASHY IN PINK (Flashy Bull - Laelia, by Marquetry, February 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $19,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, $17,000 Keeneland September yearling, $95,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the February auction) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-19, 844K, 1-6 at two, 1-6 sprinting) that is 3-11 (28%, $3.12 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed (0-6, 11K, 0-1 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed No Affair (4-20, 105K, 1-4 at two, 4-14 sprinting).  The July 18 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Sweet Cat (finished second in career debut here on July 25 with 58 Beyer).  The July 24 workout matches Pletcher's 3-year-old Crea's Law (72 Beyer top). Pletcher is 60-268 (22%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (19-85, 22% at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 21-75 (28%, $1.93 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#4 STAY COMPOSED (Bernstein - Al Max Diner, by End Sweep, February 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $28,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, $70,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the May auction.  She is by a multiple Group 3 turf winner (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two, won debut) that is 23-188 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (3-28, 11%, $1.54 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam, an $80,000 yearling, was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (2-12, 131K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 2-11 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  The third dam is stakes-winner Allegedum (4-14, 101K, 0-1 sprinting). The July 4 workout went .02 slower than trainer Bruce Brown's juvenile Half Lit (finished second in career debut here on July 24 with 67 Beyer).  The July 10 workout went .01 faster than Brown's 4-year-old filly Bella Lady (finished seventh in 'n1x' allowance at Belmont on July 17 with 40 Beyer).  Brown is 0-20 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-6 at Saratoga).  Brown is 2-8 (25%, $2.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#10 GRACE LIKE RAIN (Stormy Atlantic - Graziella, by Honour and Glory, February 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $120,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two, 6-15 sprinting) that is 49-430 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (8-50, 16%, $2.12 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners.  The dam, a $57,000 yearling, was a stakes-winning sprinter (4-22, 126K, 4-18 sprinting) and this is her first starter. This is the family of multiple Grade 1 winner Sacahuista (6-21, 1.2M, 4-9 at two, 3-9 sprinting).  The June 3 workout matches trainer D. Wayne Lukas' juvenile Afleet Bandit (finished seventh in career debut here in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 31 with 47 Beyer).  The June 10 workout matches Lukas' 4-year-old Delong Road (finished seventh in the Teddy Drone Stakes at Monmouth on July 31 with 66 Beyer).  The July 28 workout matches Lukas' juvenile filly Tura Isabel (40 Beyer).  Lukas is 5-100 (5%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-36, 3%, $2.77 ROI at Saratoga).  Lukas is 1-21 (5%, $2.24 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#1 SPRING BREEZE (Congrats - Spring, by Stravinsky, March 4, 2009 in Florida, Out OBS Fall weanling, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, $72,000 OBS Select yearling) is by a Grade 2 route winner (7-26, 998K, 1-2 at two, 2-5 sprinting) that is 34-242 (14%) with juveniles. The dam, a $45,000 weanling and $110,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juvenile, 0-3 with sprinters). Spring Breeze is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed juvenile router Pulsion (2-16, 194K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting). The dam, a $45,000 weanling and $110,000 yearling, is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed router Throne (1-18, 75K, 1-7 at two). Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-7 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga).  Wheels back quickly after chasing favored winner in the slop and can show early speed if able to break cleanly from the tricky inside post.

#9 ALYDARLA (Henny Hughes - Mamboalot, by Kingmambo, February 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $15,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, Out Keeneland April juvenile, $32,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 20.4 prior to the April auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, 6-8 sprinting) that is 24-137 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $250,000 yearling, was a stakes-placed sprinter (3-11, 53K, 1-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  The second dam is Grade 2 winner Investalot (7-15, 310K, 6-10 sprinting).  Trainer James Chapman is 1-3 (33%, $1.13 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints.  Simply overmatched in the Schuylerville, but should find these more to her liking.

#7 GOOD DEED (Broken Vow - Hidden Assets, by Mt. Livermore, February 11, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 2 route winner (9-14, 725K, 1-2 sprinting) that is 24-239 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (5-29, 17%, $1.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam, a $230,000 juvenile, was a Grade 3 sprint winner (5-13, 298K, 0-1 at two, 5-12 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 5 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 5-5 with sprinters).  The Broken Vow - Mt. Livermore breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-winner Just for Keeps (7-21, 289K, 1-1 at two, 5-10 sprinting).  Good Deed is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Due Date (8-30, 276K, 0-2 at two, 2-6 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Country Day (6-14, 247K, 0-2 at two, 5-10 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 turfer Smooth Runner (7-24, 402K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and stakes-placed juvenile Daiwa Ripples (Japan, 3-12, 369K).  Trainer Steve Margolis is 3-38 (8%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Margolis is 1-12 (8%, $1.18 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Reservation Blues
2. Composition
3. Mi Vida

The Play:
Reservation Blues - Composition Exacta
Reservation Blues - Mi Vida Exacta

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