08/05/2007 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 8/6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Sunday’s results:
Race 2 – Esther Got Even finished fifth at 5-1
Race 5 - Dose of Reality finished fourth at 7-2

Monday, August 6
Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $63,000

1. Return to Paradise (El Prado - Winner’s Edge, by Seeking the Gold)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled April 21, 2005 in Kentucky
- $145,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to stakes-placed dirt router Capac (22-5-4-5, $192,256, 1-2 at two, 0-1 on turf)
- sire was a Group 1 winner on turf at two (9-4-1-0, $236,987, 4-6 at two, won debut, all races on grass)
- sire is 130-839 (15%) with juvenile runners
- sire is 375-2802 (13%) with turf runners
- sire has a juvenile debut winner on turf at this meet
- dam was a Grade 3-placed dirt router (24-4-5-1, $145,450, 0-2 at two, 2-6 on turf, cost $32,000 as a yearling)
- dam has seven foals of racing age, six runners, four winners, four juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, four turf runners, one turf winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Bid Us (33-6-4-10, $272,275), Group 2 turf winner Lucky Song, and Grade 3 winner Pollock’s Luck (23-6-2-2, $375,858, 1-1 at two, 2-8 on turf)
- trainer is 4-9 (44%, $2.16 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers
- trainer is 1-1 (100%, $4.90 ROI) with that angle with Spa Babies

1a: Nellie Trent (Giant’s Causeway - Oh Nellie, by Tilt the Stars)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled February 18, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Group 1 winner on turf (13-9-4-0, $3,078,989, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf)
- sire is 9-78 (12%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 11-133 (8%) with first-turf runners
- sire has two older debut winners this year (one on turf)
- dam was a Grade 3 winner (22-8-3-1, $360,454, 3-4 at two, won debut, 5-10 on turf, first-turf winner, sold for $3,000 as a yearling, $13,000 as a juvenile, and $14,000 as juvenile)
- dam has three foals of racing age, two runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, two turf runners, two turf winners
- trainer is 14-63 (22%, $1.60 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf
- trainer is 8-24 (33%, 2.22 ROI) with that angle at Saratoga
- trainer has 15 debut winners this year, two on turf, all with Lasix, 10 juvenile debut winners, two for this owner
- June 11 work was .01 slower barn’s three-year-old filly Jesse’s Justice (won turf ‘n1x’ on June 17 with 78 Beyer, and three-year-old Twilight Meteor (finished seventh in the Queen’s Plate at Woodbine over Polytrack on June 24 with 70 Beyer)
- June 22 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Alachua (finished fourth in career debut on dirt on July 26 with 53 Beyer)
- June 27 workout matches barn’s three-year-old Soaring By (finished ninth in ‘n2x’ optional claimer on dirt on July 30 with 56 Beyer)
- July 30 workout matches barn’s three-year-old Winstrella (finished sixth in Lemon Drop Kid Stakes on August 5 with 71 Beyer)

2. Doctor Sparks (Jump Start - Sharp Contrast, by Diesis)
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
- Foaled February 21, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 2 winner sprinting on dirt at two (5-2-1-0, $221,265, all races at two, won debut, unraced on turf)
- sire is 6-63 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 3-29 (10%) with first-turf runners
- sire has four debut winners this year, two juvenile debut winners
- dam was unraced (cost $30,000 as a yearling)
- dam has five foals of racing age, four runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, one turf runner, no turf winners
- dam a half-sister to juvenile Group 3 turf winner Savannah’s Honor, and French turf stakes-winner Anna’s Honor
- Diesis is the broodmare sire of three debut winners this year
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf
- May 24 workout went .01 slower than entrymate Alyssa Givonna (finished fifth in career debut on turf on June 17 with 48 Beyer)
- June 7, August 1workouts match Alyssa Givonna
- June 16 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly On Jodi’s Account (finished sixth in career debut on dirt on June 28 with 49 Beyer; 53 Beyer on turf)
- July 7 workout matches barn’s four-year-old filly Playingintheband (finished seventh in dirt maiden special weight at Finger Lakes on July 27 with 14 Beyer; top turf Beyer of 37)
- July 15 workout went .02 faster than Alyssa Givonna
- July 25 workout went .01 faster than Alyssa Givonna

2b: Alyssa Givonna (Straight Man - Givonna S, by Abaginone)
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
- Foaled March 26, 2005 in Florida
- withdrawn short yearling (OBS January 2006)
- sire was a Grade 2 winner on dirt (15-5-2-1, $333,304, unraced at two, unraced on turf)
- sire is 39-311 (13%) with juvenile runners
- sire is 36-222 (16%) with turf runners
- dam was unplaced (2-0-0-0, $168, unraced at two, unraced on turf)
- this is dam’s first foal
- trainer is 3-27 (11%, $1.30 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-3 with that angle with Spa Babies

3. Zee Zee (Exchange Rate - Emblem of Hope, by Dynaformer)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled January 24, 2005 in Florida
- $50,000 juvenile (OBS April 2007)
- sire was a Grade 2 winner (15-6-2-2, $479,803, 1-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner)
- sire is 9-58 (16%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 3-31 (10%) with first-turf runners
- sire has three juvenile debut winners this year
- dam was a juvenile turf winner (5-1-0-2, $21,950, all races at two, 1-4 on turf, cost $225,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam’s first foal
- Dynaformer is the broodmare sire of three debut winners this year
- trainer is 6-76 (8%, $0.67 ROI) with juvenile debut runners on turf
- trainer is 1-19 (5%, $0.23 ROI) with that angle with Spa Babies
- trainer has eight debut winners this year, four on turf, all with Lasix, two with Kent Desormeaux aboard, two juvenile debut winners, three for this owner, one at this meet)
- worked one furlong in 10.60 prior to the April sale
- July 23 workout matches barn’s juvenile Caravel (finished second in career debut on turf on August 3 with 63 Beyer)

3c (MTO). Saratoga Summer (Smart Strike - Ziggy’s Act, by Danzig)
Trainer William Mott
- Foaled May 6, 2005 in Kentucky
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Cosmic Wing (12-2-3-4, $114,106, 1-3 at two, 0-3 in dirt sprints), and stakes-winner Charley Tango (20-4-5-3, $166,973, 2-5 at two, won debut, 1-1 in dirt sprints)
- sire was a Grade 1 winner (8-6-1-0, $337,376, unraced at two, 2-3 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 31-175 (18%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire has eight debut winners this year, two juvenile debut winners
- Smart Strike - Danzig ‘nick’ produced Grade 1 turf winner Soaring Free, and Grade 3 dirt winner High Strike Zone
- dam was a Grade 3 winner (6-4-2-0, $129,008, 0-1 at two, 1-3 in dirt sprints)
- dam has 12 foals of racing age, seven runners, six winners, two juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner
- second dam was Grade 1 winner Comedy Act (28-7-8-4, $498,667)
- Danzig is the broodmare sire of six debut winners this year
- trainer is 20-224 (9%, $0.96 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 3-60 (5%, $0.53 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies
- trainer has eight debut winners this year, all with Lasix, two juvenile debut winners, one at this meet)
- June 27, July 5, July 21 workouts match barn’s juvenile filly Vivacious Vivian (finished second in career debut on turf on July 30 with 77 Beyer)
- July 13 workout went .05 slower than barn’s juvenile Roadster (finished fifth in lone outing on June 24 in turf maiden with 44 Beyer)
- July 28 workout matches barn’s juvenile Celestial Comet (finished fourth in career debut on turf on August 3 with 73 Beyer)

3x (MTO). Namaste’s Wish (Pulpit - Copelan’s Bid Gal, by Copelan)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled February 8, 2005 in Kentucky
- $600,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2006)
- full sister to Grade 1 dirt mile winner Purge (15-6-1-2, $905,434, 1-1 at two, 2-2 in dirt sprints)
- half-sister to Mexican stakes-placed Boca Di Leone (9-2-1-2, $9,528, 0-1 at two, all races in dirt sprints)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 dirt route winner (6-4-1-0, $728,200, unraced at two, 1-1 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 67-395 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter on dirt (12-5-0-0, $84,579, 2-4 at two, 5-11 in dirt sprints, cost for $8,000 as a yearling, and $16,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has four foals of racing age, four runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2 dirt sprint winner Valid Wager (16-5-5-0, $306,020, 3-7 at two, 3-10 in dirt sprints), and stakes-placed dirt sprinter Mrs Cav Is Here (16-2-7-0, $59,680, unraced at two, 1-14 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 22-138 (16%, $1.58 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 5-33 (15%, $2.30 ROI) with second-time Spa Babies

4. Madam Bling (War Chant - Madam Sandie, by Our Native)
Trainer: James Toner
- Foaled April 29, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire is a Grade 1 winner on turf (7-5-1-0, $1,130,600, 1-1 at two, 2-2 on turf)
- half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Gritty Sandie (49-9-5-9, $536,445, 0-1 at two, 9-48 on turf)- sire is 10-51 (20%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 15-87 (17%) with first-turf runners
- sire has two debut winners this year, one juvenile debut winner, both on turf
- dam was multiple Grade 3-placed on turf at two (14-3-0-3, $86,040, 2-6 at two, 3-12 on turf, first-turf winner)
- dam has 11 foals of racing age, eight runners, six winners, seven juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, one juvenile debut winner, eight turf runners, five turf winners
- dam is a full sister to Grade 2-placed Blazing Kadie (38-7-6-4, $253,735, 0-2 at two, 7-34 on turf)
- trainer is 1-14 (7%, $2.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf
- trainer is 0-4 with that move with Spa Babies
- May 26, June 15, July 13 workouts match barn’s juvenile filly Lunar Beach (finished third in lone start on July 19 on dirt with 59 Beyer)
- June 1 workout went .02 slower than Lunar Beach

5. Bluegrass Girl (Jump Start - Aire Mystique, by Sportin’ Life)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
- Foaled February 24, 2005 in Kentucky
- $40,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- $7,000 juvenile (OBS February 2007)
- sire was a Grade 2 winner sprinting on dirt at two (5-2-1-0, $221,265, all races at two, won debut, unraced on turf)
- sire is 28-181 (15%) with juvenile runners
- sire is 5-48 (10%) with turf runners
- sire has four debut winners this year, two juvenile debut winners
- dam was a stakes-winner (30-4-8-4, $73,889, 0-4 at two, 0-4 on turf, cost $10,000 as a yearling)
- dam has six foals of racing age, six runners, four winners, six juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, four turf runners, no turf winners
- dam a half-sister to Japanese stakes-placed Sugino Gaisenmon
- dam a full sister to stakes-placed Muskie (29-4-4-3, $88,227, unraced at two, 0-4 on turf)
- trainer is 1-6 (17%, $15.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile turf runners going sprint to route
- trainer is 1-3 (33%, $31.67 ROI) with that angle at Saratoga
- worked one furlong in 11.20, and a quarter-mile in 22.80 prior to the February sale

6. Show ‘Em All (Proud Citizen - Miss Alethia, by T.V. Commerical)
Trainer: Christophe Clement
- Foaled April 22, 2005 in Kentucky
- $250,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Gimmeawink (23-9-4-3, $531,090, 3-5 at two, won debut, 0-2 on turf), and multiple Grade 1 turf winner Showing Up (10-7-1-1, $1,660,500, unraced at two, 4-6 on turf, first-turf winner)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 2 dirt route winner (16-3-2-1, $638,822, 1-4 at two, unraced on turf)
- sire is 3-16 (19%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 0-1 with turf runners
- dam was a dirt route winner (28-1-5-4, $37,488, 0-8 at two, 0-5 on turf, sold for $16,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has six foals of racing age, five runners, three winners, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, one juvenile debut winner, three turf runners, one turf winner, one first-turf winner
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3-placed juvenile Muffled (7-1-2-0, $11,467), and stakes-winner Dot O’ Spice (105-18-16-11, $126,700, 0-4 at two, 0-5 on turf)
- dam a full sister to stakes-winner It’s a Rerun (81-14-15-13, $179,513)
- trainer is 9-39 (23%, $1.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf
- trainer is 1-5 (25%, $1.25 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies on grass
- trainer has two older debut winners this year, one on turf, both with Lasix

7. Lavender Luck (Sky Mesa - Lucky Lavender Gal, by Carson City)
Trainer: John Kimmel
- Foaled April 18, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-sister to Grade 3-placed Lavender’s Lad (32-5-10-3, $200,917, 0-2 at two, 0-2 on turf), and stakes-winning dirt sprinter Lavender Lass (31-5-8-3, $256,406, 2-5 at two, won debut, unraced on turf)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, unraced on turf)
- sire is 1-9 (11%) with juvenile debut runners
- this is sire’s first turf runner
- dam was a multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter (20-7-1-7, $237,940, 1-2 at two , won debut, 0-2 on turf)
- dam has five foals of racing age, four runners, three winners, four juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner, one turf runner, no turf winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Green Alligator (12-3-4-0, $278,276, 0-2 at two, unraced on turf)
- dam a full sister to Grade 2-placed La Ville Rouge (25-6-3-4, $262,594, 1-5 at two, 2-11 on turf, dam of multiple Grade 1 winner Barbaro)
- trainer is 4-19 (21%, $2.35 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf
- trainer is 1-3 (33%, $2.33 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies on turf
- trainer has one juvenile debut winner this year on turf with Lasix
- July 2 workout matches barn’s three-year-old filly Twisted Sis (finished fifth in lone career start on dirt on July 8 with 43 Beyer)

8. Nightnightnight (Whywhywhy - For a Night, by Forli)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
- Foaled May 8, 2005 in Kentucky
- $47,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- withdrawn juvenile (Keeneland April 2007)
- half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile dirt sprinter Stage West (13-2-2-2, $51,193, 1-4 at two, 0-2 on turf)
- full sister to stakes-placed turfer Solid Platinum (13-4-1-3, $120,010, unraced at two, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 dirt sprint winner at two (9-3-1-1, $315,015, 3-5 at two, unraced on turf)
- sire is 2-13 (15%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 0-2 with first-turf runners
- dam was unraced (sold for $33,000 as a yearling)
- dam has five foals of racing age, four runners, three winners, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winner, four turf runners, one turf winner, one first-turf winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Morning Haze (28-6-3-7, $53,470), Grade 3 winner Small Virtue (48-9-12-6, $376,370, 0-2 at two, 7-29 on turf), and stakes-placed Saint (21-6-4-3, $114,880, unraced at two, 0-1 on turf)
- trainer is 1-6 (17%, $1.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf
- trainer is 0-4 with that angle at Saratoga
- trainer has three debut winners this year, one juvenile debut winner for this owner, all with Lasix, all with Leparoux aboard

9. African Violet (Lemon Drop Kid - Run Ameadowstar, by Cherokee Run)
Trainer: H Graham Motion
- Foaled March 31, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (24-10-3-3, $3,245,370, 2-6 at two, unraced at two)
- sire is 6-79 (8%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 17-126 (13%) with first-turf runners
- sire has two older debut winners this year, one on turf
- dam was a winner (16-3-3-2, $59,290, 0-3 at two, 1-4 on turf)
- dam has three foals of racing age, one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, no turf runners
- Cherokee Run is the broodmare sire of one debut winner this year
- trainer is 1-15 (7%, $0.72 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf
- trainer is 1-3 (33%, $3.60 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies on turf
- trainer has six debut winners this year, one on turf, all with Lasix, one juvenile debut winner

Analysis:
LAVENDER LUCK has an extremely interesting pedigree. Her dam, a multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter (105 Beyer top), is a full sister to the dam of Barbaro, and she has already thrown a couple of blacktype foals. Sky Mesa is a very promising young sire, and trainer John Kimmel sent out juvenile debut winner Immersed in Gold here in 2005 (on turf).
MADAM BLING has tons of turf in her pedigree, and she attracts one of the best riders in the business in Edgar Prado. She draws a cozy inside post, and should save all the ground going into the first turn. Trainer James Toner is only 1 for his last 32 with debut runners, however. Todd Pletcher’s babies haven’t set the meet on fire, but he did send out juvenile firster Il Girasole to win on turf here the other day. His coupled entry of RETURN TO PARADISE, and NELLIE TRENT look solid. The former raced greenly in her debut after an awkward beginning, and should benefit from that run. Nellie Trent’s sire excels with turf runners, and her turf workout on June 27 looks solid.
BLUEGRASS GIRL faltered in her turf debut, and has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in her career. She looms a pace factor in this spot. ZEE ZEE goes out for the red-hot Mott stable, and shows a bullet workout on the lawn. SHOW ‘EM ALL is a half-sister to the excellent turf performer Showing Up, and she was bought back for a hefty sum last year. NIGHTNIGHTNIGHT’s sire was very, very fast so it will be interesting to see how she handles this route distance.

Selections: 1. Lavender Luck 2. Madam Bling 3. Nellie Trent

The play: Lavender Luck to win and place at 8-1 odds or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 18-2-7 (-$13.80)